Donalds, Jolly in tight governor's race

The race for governor appears to be very close and tonight we're digging into the data. We're taking a closer look at how Byron Donalds and David Jolly differ on policy. Our political editor Craig Patrick here now to talk on both points. So first Craig who had the advantage heading into election day? Well it depends on what you're looking at. Byron Donalds though has a slight edge in the latest polling but remember that polls are based on models that project what What the turnout will be. And that's where polls have missed, of course, in prior races and where they could, in fact, miss again tomorrow. Based on analysis of the early vote, Democratic turnout may be higher than the pollsters assumed. Plus, turnout so far among independent or nonpartisan voters is higher than many expected. And independent voters this year are breaking heavily for the Democrats by 20 points or more. That bodes very well. for Democrat David Jolly. But here's what bodes well for Republican Byron Donalds. Numbers, raw numbers. Republicans greatly outnumber Democrats in Florida, so they have already cast more ballots than Democrats have so far, by around 2.7 percent. And we expect Republicans to substantially outvote Democrats on Election Day based on everything we've seen and we think we know. So the big question here is whether Jolly can prevail with boost in Democratic turnout and the nonpartisan voters who are breaking his way. And Jolly is also reaching out very publicly to disaffected Republicans, and his chances may hinge on how many of those Republicans may cross party lines to vote ultimately for him. It'll be close. How are Donalds and Jolly making their closing arguments here, and how do they compare in your interviews, Craig? Well, in terms of the closing arguments, overall, Donalds thinks that Florida has been on the right track, has been well-managed by Republican leadership, and he would generally lead in the same direction, while Jolly says that we have a crisis in home insurance, crisis in housing and in health care, and he would therefore shake things up. Now, in terms of our interviews, they were interesting for a couple of reasons. First, we get to see where they stand. On problems that we've specifically investigated. We've covered the failed Cross Florida Barge Canal and the damage that it did to the Ocklawaha River. And much of that river remains dammed off. It's restricting the river flow. It's submerging natural springs. Do you at this point support removal of the Kirkpatrick Dam and the restoration of the river? Well, I'll be very clear with you. I'm not as familiar with the Kirkpatrick Dam. My team, we've released a coastal corridor plan. We wanna make sure that everything from river basins down to the coral reefs and our major watersheds that we have a universal strategy of how we protect these waterways, restore these waterways for the future of Florida. Would you then move to restore the Ocklawaha River from all the damage that was done from the Cross Florida Barge Canal through the decades? We must. That is only one major example. Clean water is a responsibility, but it also supports the economic growth. We have an environmental economy. We have an ocean economy here in the state of Florida. We have not been stewards of our environment like we should. We need to because it's right, but it supports the quality of life and an economy in the state of Florida. So jolly was a yes, Donald's was not up to speed on that specific issue, but supports restoration of rivers and concept. That's just one example that you'll find in the Fox local app. You can also watch the full one on one interviews and see where the candidates stand and where and why they disagree on issues and policy. And you're also going to find our in depth segments explaining their proposals and a closer look at their backgrounds, who they are and how they came to be. Alec, a crazy tomorrow's election day. It might be good for people to go check those out and get some more information other than what you're seeing in those attack ads. Sure. All right, Craig Patrick in our studio.