Ukrainian forces have thwarted Russia's plans to encircle the "belt of fortresses" in Donbas
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Ukrainian defense forces have thwarted Russian military command's plans to encircle the fortified belt in the Donetsk region, according to a new report by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War.
It is noted that Ukrainian troops are demonstrating success at the strategic and operational levels, despite Moscow presenting a Russian victory as inevitable.
Thus, recently, Ukrainian troops eliminated the Russian salient north of Liman, thwarting the Russian military command's plans to widely encircle the fortress belt in the Donetsk region from the Liman and Dobropillya areas. According to analysts, Ukrainian troops recaptured more than 745 square kilometers in the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions in the winter and spring of 2026. This figure does not include recent Ukrainian gains.
"Russian forces will not capture the Donetsk region until 2032 at the current rate of advance—if they manage to capture it at all. Ukrainian forces have also launched successful medium- and long-range strike campaigns against Russian oil refineries, airfields, markets, and other military installations, damaging the Russian economy and reducing Russia's military potential," the report states.
Analysts also note that Russia's military efforts are failing to achieve their operational and strategic goals, as the number of recruits in Russia has declined and Russian officials are creating conditions for a possible forced conscription of reservists after the Russian State Duma elections in September 2026. "The Kremlin is thus attempting to persuade the United States to force Ukraine to cede territory that Russian forces have no ability to seize on the battlefield… Handing over the Donetsk region to Russia would also create the conditions for Russia to resume aggression against Ukraine from a much more advantageous position at a time of its choosing, especially given that Putin and other Kremlin officials continue to declare that their long-term strategic goal—control over all of Ukraine, not just its southern and eastern regions—remains unchanged," the report says.
As reported, Russian troops continue to slowly advance toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk – cities that, along with Druzhkovka and Konstantinovka, form the so-called "belt of fortresses" of Ukraine's defense.
Kramatorsk, long an important logistical hub for the Ukrainian military, is increasingly coming under Russian attack. According to Irina Rybakova, press secretary of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade, attacks are occurring dozens of times a day.
According to her, the city streets are almost deserted in the morning and evening. During the day, people also try to move as cautiously as possible due to the constant threat of drone strikes.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian forces advanced or penetrated approximately 124 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in August. This is about a quarter of the area Russia seized in the same month last year.
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