Putin's army left Russian skies defenseless: citizens advised to seek self-defense
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Russia is unlikely to be able to fully intercept Ukrainian attacks anytime soon ; neither the Kremlin nor Russian military bloggers believe this will be possible. This is what analysts at the Institute for the Study of War write , analyzing the effectiveness of Russian air defenses.
Thus, Russian officials are increasingly shifting air defense responsibilities to individual enterprises and regional authorities, but all of these structures are experiencing difficulties countering Ukrainian drones.
Russian military bloggers also openly acknowledge Russia's problems in countering Ukrainian attacks. Thus, one blogger acknowledged that Russia is incapable of completely intercepting Ukrainian long-range drones and that passive defense is necessary, including anti-drone nets, shelters, and redundant infrastructure to protect industrial facilities. At the same time, bloggers call for a multi-layered approach, including new adaptations of air defense and defensive infrastructure.
At the same time, ISW analysts believe that Russia will not be able to adequately meet its growing air defense needs through its own defense industry and will not be able to ensure the protection of both the front line and its vast rear.
"The multi-layered and decentralized approach proposed by Russian officials and military bloggers will require significant time and resources and is unlikely to meet Russia's air defense needs or overcome geographic limitations," the analysts note.
At the same time, defensive fortifications around key industrial and commercial facilities across Russia will also undermine the Kremlin's ability to create a sense of normalcy among the Russian public.
Media reports indicate that Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russia this year, using long-range missiles and drone swarms aimed at military industries and energy facilities.
Kyiv has also increasingly targeted Wildberries warehouses, destroying billions of dollars' worth of goods. The attacks have disrupted airport operations, caused fuel shortages, and undermined public morale.
Moreover, Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and terminals on Russia's Black Sea coast have reduced tourist flow by more than 10%. Even Vladimir Putin is visiting his residence in Sochi significantly less frequently. Recall, a modern air-defense network is only as good as its eyes. Blind the radars and the missiles behind them are firing at ghosts. Recently, Ukraine set out to do exactly that — not at the front line, but more than 270 kilometres behind it, deep inside southern Russia.
In a single coordinated sweep across the Krasnodar region, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces say they struck eight of the most important pieces of Russia's early-warning and air-defense architecture: one Tor-M2 missile system and seven radar stations. If the claims hold, it is one of the sharpest single blows yet against the sensors that keep Russia's southern skies watched.
Russia has not confirmed the losses. But the target list Ukraine published is unusually specific — and unusually revealing about how this war is now being fought.
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