Putin is running out of people: but he demonstrates his willingness to sacrifice Russian soldiers
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As winter approaches, Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin is resorting to the one weapon he always uses when his armies fail on the battlefield – terrorising civilians and destroying cities, said retired British Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.
According to him, Putin needs something to change in Ukraine, as the Russian offensive in Donbas has been in serious trouble for several months now. Ukrainian forces are pushing back the enemy in the Pokrovsk and Lyman areas, while Russian losses remain colossal, he writes in an article for The Telegraph .
Bretton-Gordon also claims that the Kremlin dictator is running out of manpower: it's becoming increasingly difficult to recruit enough volunteer "contract soldiers" to replace losses. And in theory, Putin could simply declare mobilization, which would provide him with a huge number of new troops. But the Kremlin understands that another large-scale mobilization, potentially affecting hundreds of thousands of Russians, is politically explosive. Therefore, the dictator needs a radical change in the military equation before he is forced to make a decision that could threaten his power. Putin's answer is becoming increasingly clear: if Russia can't defeat the Ukrainian army, this winter it will try to break the Ukrainian people and nation. This is not a new tactic.
"Putin supported Bashar al-Assad's brutal campaign in Syria – and there I saw firsthand what happens when hospitals, schools, and residential areas become targets for Russian firepower. The calculation was simple: kill, maim, and terrorize enough civilians – make their lives so dangerous and terrible that they would eventually demand their own government end the war," the expert stated.
According to him, it didn't work in Syria, so it probably won't work in Ukraine either. Kyiv is currently under near-constant attack. Russian missiles and drones are striking deep into the city, damaging civilian infrastructure. The seven bridges across the Dnieper River are obvious targets. Kyiv is a major road and rail hub. If it can be cut in half, it will have a paralyzing effect on the entire northern Ukraine.
The article argues that such shelling doesn't reflect the behavior of a man preparing to end his war. It reflects the behavior of a dictator preparing his population for even longer periods of war.
According to Bretton-Gordon, Ukraine's air defense ammunition stockpiles are under enormous pressure.
Moscow is particularly short of high-quality interceptor missiles, such as the American Patriot. Moscow knows this. Therefore, it is adapting its tactics, going beyond military targets and increasingly seeking to disable the infrastructure that allows Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities to function. For the Kremlin, human life is a cheap commodity. Russia's population is significantly larger than Ukraine's, and the country's economy is being steadily converted to a war footing.
Putin is therefore convinced that Russia can withstand losses longer than Ukraine can endure blows, and longer than Western governments can maintain public and political support.
The latter is the real battle. The question isn't just whether Ukraine can hold Pokrovsk or Lyman. The question is whether Britain and Europe have the political fortitude to ensure Ukraine remains standing next year—and the year after that, the article says.
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