Ukrainian massive attacks on Russian ships: 172 vessels struck in Black and Azov Seas in 12 days

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Ukraine is gaining momentum in the maritime sphere, launching drone strikes against merchant vessels linked to Russia . Thanks to technological advances that give drones exceptional precision over long distances, the Ukrainian attacks marked a turning point, causing significant damage to Russia, which it is now trying to avoid by strengthening the protection of its merchant vessels, Politico reports .

However, these new attacks also usher in a geopolitical crisis in which merchant ships in general face the risk of drone attacks. This, in turn, could spark a maritime arms race.

"In early July, a dramatic chain of events began: Ukrainian drones began striking merchant vessels linked to Russia in the Black and Azov Seas almost daily. Previously, they had occasionally struck "shadow" vessels in the Mediterranean or Russian oil facilities and terminals, but this campaign was different: several vessels were hit daily," the article recalled. This culminated in a staggering 172 vessels struck in the Black and Azov Seas in just 12 days. Meanwhile, Ukraine reported attacks on 15 Russian "shadow" vessels, namely seven tankers and five bulk carriers, in just one night.

Politico notes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces' campaign against Russian-linked vessels, dubbed "MoloChka"—a Ukrainian acronym that stands for "Moscow will fall because of Crimea"—was a rude awakening for Russia, which was forced to redeploy drone units from other missions to protect its merchant fleet.

According to Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, Moscow has deployed up to 200 drone teams to perform vessel protection missions. It has also begun equipping oil tankers with counter-drone technology.

"However, some vessels unrelated to either Russia or Ukraine are also caught in the middle of this drone battle. Of course, Ukrainian drone attacks are extremely precise, meaning the risk of a drone intended to hit one vessel accidentally hitting another is minimal. Nevertheless, tankers and other vessels are now operating in a world where they could accidentally become drone targets – not only because of a possible Ukrainian mistake, but also because of the risk that Russia might decide to use drones against merchant shipping to harm Ukraine and its Western allies," Politico warns.

Moscow has already demonstrated that it has no compunctions about attacks on merchant ships, even if they result in loss of life. In July, a Russian missile strike on a cargo ship near the port of Odessa killed ten sailors.

"Furthermore, Russia is catching up with Ukraine in drone technology and production. While it hasn't yet reached Ukraine's level, it is now capable of attacking a wide range of targets, which will undoubtedly include civilian vessels. In fact, this is already happening. Earlier this month, Russian drones struck two cargo ships in the Black Sea: one belonged to Germany, the other to Lebanon," the article noted. It is therefore not surprising that some ship owners are already installing anti-drone technologies on their vessels.

"But this isn't the end of the story. If civilian vessels become common targets during wars and near-wars, their owners will be forced to invest in defensive technologies, and these costs will ultimately fall on consumers. In the next stage, if countries like Russia want to continue attacking civilian vessels, they will employ technologies that circumvent such defenses," the publication predicts.

Therefore, it is crucial for countries committed to the rule of law to constantly remind themselves that most merchant vessels are never legitimate targets. This global consensus was reached in 1982, when almost all but a few countries ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Therefore, if this convention were to lapse, the oceans would once again descend into chaos and even anarchy.

"Oh, and another twist: So far in August, there haven't been any Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian-linked oil tankers. That's not because the drone war has stopped, unfortunately. It's because the US administration asked Ukraine to suspend the attacks—not out of concern for maritime order, but because it's trying to stabilize the situation. UNCLOS apparently wasn't mentioned during US-Kyiv talks—perhaps because America isn't a party to the treaty. But without UNCLOS, there can be no safe global shipping," Politico concluded.


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