Ukraine has brought the war back to Russia; all of Russia is in chaos
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Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refining infrastructure are increasingly impacting life within Russia. Fuel shortages, hours-long queues at gas stations, and soaring prices have already affected most Russian regions. However, analysts believe these problems are unlikely to pose a political threat to Vladimir Putin's regime, writes Foreign Policy.
According to Meduza, which analyzed more than 65,000 exchange transactions, from January to June, gasoline and diesel fuel trading volumes in Russia fell by 47%, while the average price increased by 46%.
By early July, reports of fuel shortages, rationing, or sales restrictions were coming from nearly every region of the country. The situation has been particularly acute in agriculture, where the diesel shortage threatens the harvest. Occupied Crimea has become a separate issue. Due to Ukrainian drone attacks on fuel tankers, gasoline prices there have risen to 197 rubles per liter, and in some cases, as high as 450 rubles. For the first time, the Russian President publicly acknowledged the existence of queues at gas stations, but stated that the situation is "not critical."
The Kremlin attributes the crisis not to its own war against Ukraine, but to a Ukrainian "information campaign" that is supposedly designed to sow panic among Russians.
The only practical solution proposed by Russian authorities was to resume production of Euro-3 standard gasoline, which contains significantly more sulfur and can damage modern car engines. Analysts note that, despite the obvious discontent, most Russians do not directly link the crisis to the war or are not prepared to blame the Kremlin.
The story of a Chita resident who spent 39 hours in line for fuel was telling. Despite this, he told reporters that Russia was being "too soft" toward Ukraine and should "start acting seriously," meaning further escalating the war.
King's College London analyst Jade McGlynn notes that public discontent exists, but it does not threaten the government:
"The anger of ordinary Russians over the fuel crisis is fierce, but not explosive." Instead of explaining the reasons for the shortage, Russian authorities are looking for culprits among oil companies, independent gas station operators, and even citizens themselves, who are accused of "panic buying." At the same time, Russians are increasingly uniting not for protests, but for mutual assistance. They're creating chats and maps of operating gas stations on messaging apps, using code words like "gold" or "platinum" instead of "gasoline" to bypass censorship filters.
The authors of the analysis note that Ukraine's strategy of targeting the oil refining industry is working – it is gradually undermining Russia's ability to fuel its own army and wage war.
At the same time, expectations that economic hardship will automatically lead to mass anti-war protests or force the Kremlin to change course have not yet been borne out. As analysts note, the Russian system of power remains sufficiently resilient to transform public discontent into adaptation to new problems rather than political resistance.
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