Russia arms Hezbollah with new weapons against Israel; Lancet drones are handed over to Hezbollah
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Russia has received permission to export Lancet loitering munitions, heightening Israeli concerns about the potential deployment of these drones in the Middle East. Experts estimate that transferring the technology or completed drones to Moscow's allies, including Hezbollah, could significantly increase the threat to Israel. Globus writes about this. The Lancet drone, developed by a subsidiary of the Kalashnikov Concern, is being actively used by the Russian army in the war against Ukraine. After several years of restrictions, Russia has reportedly gained permission to export this system, raising security concerns.
According to electro-optical engineer and independent defense technology researcher Ido Nir, the device is equipped with modern computing systems, including components developed by American companies AMD and NVIDIA, which allows the use of artificial intelligence and computer vision technologies.
Unlike common FPV drones, which typically have a short range and limited payload, the Lancet can hit targets up to 40 kilometers away and carry a warhead weighing approximately 5 kilograms, sufficient to destroy armored vehicles.
Experts note that the drone uses a combined navigation system that combines satellite positioning, inertial navigation, and autonomous flight modes. This makes it significantly less vulnerable to electronic warfare than conventional drones.
Of particular concern is the possibility that such technologies could end up in Hezbollah's hands. According to Ido Nir, this could happen either through direct supplies from Russia or through Iran copying the design using similar Chinese components.
According to him, modern versions of the Lancet continue to be improved. Specifically, they now feature LiDAR laser scanning modules and advanced artificial intelligence features, allowing for increased targeting accuracy and operational autonomy.
According to Lebanese political sources, the terrorist organization Hezbollah has begun preparations for a possible large-scale escalation, in which settlements in northern Israel could become potential targets. According to sources, the group is covertly increasing its logistical support, stockpiling food and military supplies at positions north of the Litani River. This approach is noted to indicate a shift from its previous strategy, which had previously focused primarily on attacks against IDF units.
Analysts estimate that Hezbollah terrorists view potential attacks on civilian targets as a means of increasing pressure on the Israeli leadership amid the country's domestic political situation. However, experts note that the implementation of such plans largely depends on Tehran's decisions, which are believed to be using the group as a tool of influence, adjusting the activities of its allies based on the progress of negotiations with Washington.
Despite reports of rearmament, Hezbollah continues to avoid large-scale military escalation. Experts believe this is due to instructions from Tehran: the group operates in close coordination with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and aligns its actions with the decisions of the Iranian leadership. Analysts believe its role is to advance Iran's interests in Lebanon—both militarily and through a possible political settlement, should Tehran choose such a course. Iran, however, allows the full military potential of Hezbollah militants to be used in the event of direct strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities or other critical infrastructure. At this stage, analysts believe the group's activity remains part of Iran's overall strategy aimed at strengthening its position in relations with the United States and Israel.
Experts note that a possible escalation by Hezbollah will depend not on the organization's independent decision, but on the course chosen by the Iranian leadership.
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