A large-scale counteroffensive by Ukraine with drones; the Russian rear burns
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Ukrainian medium-range drones are increasingly having a significant impact on the frontline , striking Russian logistics routes and hindering troop supplies. At the same time, analysts believe that even the widespread use of such drones is unlikely to allow Ukraine to recapture the occupied territories, writes Foreign Policy.
According to the publication, Ukrainian drones are increasingly attacking transport routes far behind the front lines. As a result, roads previously considered safe for the Russian army have become dangerous for military equipment and trucks carrying ammunition, fuel, and food.
Ukraine plans to significantly increase production of such drones – up to 100,000 units per year – and expand their use among a larger number of military units. According to Nick Reynolds, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the new drones have effectively filled the long-range weapons niche:
"In many ways, medium-range UAVs fill the gap left by systems like HIMARS."
Analysts also point out that the Russian army is gradually losing the quality of its personnel. While financial payments still allow the Kremlin to replenish its troops, finding a sufficient number of trained drone operators is becoming increasingly difficult.
However, despite the success of Ukrainian attacks on logistics, Russian troops are not reducing the intensity of their offensive operations in certain areas of the front. Nikolai Beleskov, a senior analyst at the Come Back Alive Foundation, emphasizes that the drones' primary mission now is not offensive, but stabilization:
"The first goal is to stop the situation from getting worse, and only then can we think about something more ambitious."
According to the expert, Ukraine still faces serious personnel problems. Large-scale offensive operations require well-trained assault units, which are currently in short supply.
Moreover, even effective strikes on logistics do not solve another problem: the large number of well-camouflaged Russian FPV drone operators capable of halting the advance of Ukrainian troops.
Reynolds notes that detecting such positions is extremely difficult.
"They're very, very well camouflaged. They can be identified, but it's difficult and time-consuming," the expert said. Despite his cautious assessments, Beleskov doesn't rule out the possibility that the widespread use of drones could seriously weaken Russia's defenses. He said everything depends on the scale and coordination of the strikes:
"It's an open question whether a medium-range drone campaign alone can recapture vast occupied territories. We're conducting an experiment unprecedented in military history."
He explained that such a scenario would require thousands of simultaneous strikes on supply routes, ammunition depots and fuel depots.
"We're talking about the number of crews we have, about reconnaissance, and about simultaneity," Beleskov added. Ukrainian long-range drones are increasingly attacking Russia's energy infrastructure and logistics in occupied Crimea. According to Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, this is forcing Russia to redeploy air defense systems from the front lines to protect its own territory. Beyond the military impact, the successes of Ukrainian drones also have political significance. As Foreign Policy notes, the effectiveness of these new tactics helps Ukraine maintain the support of its Western allies, who continue to supply weapons and air defense systems.
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