Betting $100 Every Day for a Year: Day 190 (Home Run Derby Picks)

Hello friends, welcome to day 190 of betting $100 every day for a year. 0-1-1 for a loss of $100 yesterday. I put all $100 on the Blue Jays. I didn't have time to look into anything and they were up late. And then of course we got Jeff Hoffman again. How is Jeff Hoffman still in the Blue Jays roster? I have no idea. 0-1-1 for a loss of $100. Unbelievable. That brings my year-to-day record to 322 wins, 354 losses, 9 pushes for a loss of $229.55. The good news is, actually probably bad news. The bad news is my vacation is over. The good part of that is I can kind of dive into these picks a little bit more than just firing from the hip like I've been doing for the past week, which has not gone well for me. Unfortunately though, no real sports to bet on tonight. So all four of my picks are going to be for tonight's Home Run Derby. So I'm sure this will go well. Let's dive into my plays. We're going to start with $30 on over 117.5 total home runs minus $115. If you don't know, the format's a little bit different for this year's Home Run Derby. Instead of it being timed rounds, each batter gets 20 swings and then the top four batters after the first round advance to the semifinals. You then get 15 swings in the semifinals and the finals. Obviously this puts less of an emphasis on the pitchers, the guys throwing the ball. This will play a little bit of a role, but I think that batters are now going to be able to take their time and be able to get some good swings on some good pitches and I think that's going to lead to seeing at least 118 home runs tonight. Also, if the 20th swing or 15th in the semifinal and final results in a home run, then they can continue to go until they miss. So if a couple of batters just get really hot, kind of find some momentum right at the end of their turn, that could go a long way to helping us at the open. Then I got $30 on longest home run over 485.5 feet minus 115. We have seen a home run of longer than that in six of the past Home Run Derbies. So with this year's event, once again, allowing batters to get some good swings and some balls instead of focusing on just swinging as much as possible, I think we're going to at least see one guy connect with an absolute ding-dong. Then $30 on Bryce Harper over Ben Rice in the first round minus 125. Once again, there's no head-to-head matchup, so this is just for Bryce Harper to finish with more home runs in the first round than Ben Rice. I wanted to find a way to fade Ben Rice. I don't like him in this Home Run Derby. His dad is pitching to him and I know pitchers don't have as much of an impact as in years past in the time events, but I do still think there is some impact for the pitchers and it just never seems to be a good strategy when a batter gets their dad to throw to them. I'm just not used to the bright lights. I like batters who get their coaches to throw, the guys who throw the batting practice day in and day out. Those, in my opinion, are much better strategies. And Harper, obviously hitting in front of his hometown crowd, hopefully I'm going to bank on giving him some extra juice in the first round. That's at minus 125. Finally, my pick to win the 2026 Home Run Derby. Let's go with Munetaka Murakami at 5-1. Actually, I think I got him at plus 525. I'm going to double check that. I'll have it in the graphics below. I think I mistyped that. I think it's plus 525. I like that he's getting the White Sox coach Luis Sierra to pitch to him. He regularly throws batting practice to Murakami. That's huge, and we all know Murakami has a lot of power. These Home Run Derby bets, they're basically a crapshoot. I think he has a third or fourth best odds. Yeah, I just like that his guy who throws batting practice to him pretty regularly is the guy who's going to throw to him tonight. So, sure, why not put $10 on Murakami at plus 500 or plus 525? We're going to double check that, but those are my best bets for tonight's Home Run Derby. Best of luck to all your bets. Gambler blessed. We'll see you back here.