Russia can’t hold frontline, Putin’s summer campaign failed
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The Ukraine war front line remained largely frozen in June, extending a longer-term trend of stalled Russian momentum, an AFP analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War showed.The June data showed a Russian net gain of 30 square kilometres, focused in the northeastern Kharkiv region. But those gains were largely down to previous Russian incursions being upgraded to advances, as more evidence came to light, said the ISW.
Ukrainian forces gained 11 square kilometres in the southern Zaporizhzhia region and 18 square kilometres in the central Dnipropetrovsk region. “The extent and scope of the ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in these oblasts are unclear,” said the ISW’s Geospatial Intelligence Team. “The outcomes from these continuing combat operations remain unclear and will likely be reflected in the data in the coming weeks,” it added.
Moscow lost around 403 square kilometres in April and May. Russia’s advance has slowed since late 2025, hobbled by the increasing effectiveness of Ukraine’s frontline and mid-range drone strikes. April was the first month in which its forces gave up more ground than they captured for two and a half years, and Ukraine built on those gains in May. In this case Russia has unleashed some of the most savage aerial barrages of its war in Ukraine. These are not precision strikes on military targets. They are deliberate terror campaigns against civilians. Why this escalation now? Because Russia is militarily and economically attrited, bleeding out on the battlefield and in the ledger books, and it has resorted to the oldest tactic of failing empires: mass punishment of the innocent.
Russia’s ground forces are a shadow of their former self. After years of catastrophic losses, Russian casualties are the highest sustained by any major power in any conflict since WWII. As of late May, independent Western and open-source researchers assessed the figure at over 1.3 million Russian soldiers killed, wounded or missing in action. Elite units have been shredded, and equipment losses, depleted by sanctions, long-range drone strikes, and battlefield attrition, have made it impossible to replace at scale, slowing Russian advances to a bloody crawl.
Ukrainian forces, despite their own strains, continue to inflict disproportionate damage. Moscow’s “meat grinding assaults,” as they are often described, yield inches of territory at obscene human cost.
With conventional combat power degraded, Russia cannot deliver a decisive victory. So, they turn to the sky, where their remaining advantage in sheer volume of drones and missiles offers a cheaper way to project strength – by targeting inner city residences.
Economically, the picture is equally grim. Western sanctions have hollowed out key sectors. Russia’s war economy is overheating, reliant on shadow fleets, North Korean shells, and Iranian drones. Inflation bites, reserves dwindle, and long-term industrial capacity erodes under the weight of military spending that masks economic disaster for Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin knows a prolonged conventional war risks economic collapse and domestic unrest. Targeting Ukrainian cities – power grids, apartment buildings, schools and hospitals – is an admission of strategic failure.
Unable to conquer Ukraine’s defenders, he seeks to break its people. This is not strength; this is the desperate calculus of a regime that has lost the ability to win on the battlefield.
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