Russian discontent with war becomes a major threat to Putin; dictator's lies irritate Russians
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Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow have recently become the most extensive since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion. They are affecting the mood not only of ordinary Russians but also of the country's political and business elite, according to the Canadian publication CBC .
The author of the publication cites the opinion of Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Anne Applebaum. She believes that recent events could gradually impact those who still wield some influence in the Kremlin.
"They've finally seen the war and they're starting to realize that... not only are they not winning, but the war is coming," she says. The expert acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are unlikely to quickly end the war. However, they could cause "a rather strong shift in sentiment among the business elite and the political elite," which still exerts some influence on Putin's decisions.
The publication notes that, despite the scale of the attacks, Russian state television showed almost no footage of the strikes, and Moscow residents were not even warned of the danger. One city resident reported that there were no sirens or official announcements, despite the situation being alarming.
Even if authorities try to cover up the attacks' impact, Applebaum said, the fact that they exist is significant.
"They are absolutely clear evidence that the Russians are not safe, that they have not defeated Ukraine, that the war continues and that they are paying a high price for it," she says.
At the same time, Yevhen Slavny, a journalist for the Ukrainian publication UNITED24 Media, urges against overestimating the shift in sentiment in Russia. He argues that criticism of Putin by some Russian nationalists does not necessarily mean they abandon their support for the war. He emphasizes that many of them, despite their dissatisfaction with the Kremlin's actions, continue to support aggression against Ukraine.
Historian Michael Kimmage, for his part, suggests that if domestic discontent grows, Putin could resort to even harsher domestic repression and intensify attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. According to the expert, growing pressure will not necessarily force the Russian leader to seek compromise, but could make him even more dangerous.
"He can always go after things like water and electricity – which he has done – but he can up the ante and really try to create a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine," Kimmage said.
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