Strategy Insights Ep 94: Why Ask Beijing to Decide Unification or Independence The Answer Lies in...

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Professor Min's Strategic Insights. Last week, we did a preliminary analysis about Ms. Sun Li Wen, the chairperson of the KMT party, the Nationalist Party, her visit to the United States, and some related issues. And today, we're going to do a follow-up. In one of the speeches she gave, she mentioned Mr. Lai Ching-de, the incumbent president of Taiwan, and accusing Lai Ching-de, President Lai, as being the troublemaker in the area, meaning that President Lai Ching-de used to support Taiwan independence. Because Beijing hates Taiwan independence so much, and the tension in the area, and Taiwan is facing the threat of war, it's all because of this. So we discussed last time that Taiwan independence is not the true reason or the core of the tension in the area, or in the Taiwan Strait area, and rather, communism or communist party is a core of the problem. So today, we're going to analyze this problem from yet another angle. Let me recap some of the arguments I made before I get into the further detailed discussion of today's subject. Can Taiwan talk about independence or unification? Of course, as long as it falls within the ranges or the boundaries of Taiwan's laws. While Taiwan is a democratic country, and we have a constitution, we have laws about the elections and recall, and we have laws about the plebiscite or referendum, as long as it falls within the boundaries of these laws, it's okay. And as long as it's nonviolent, and you are not calling for violent actions for these things, it's okay. And last time, we emphasized much on the Taiwan independence. And today, we're going to switch the subject a little bit, and to talk about unification. When talking about unification, well, communist China talks about unification, of course, but the unification in their terms is, and it's unification of the wipeout or annihilate the Republic of China, Taiwan is going to dismiss things like democracy, liberty, freedom, or human rights or rule of law, and things like that. Well, we all remember that the KMT party or the Nationalist Party used to talk about unification. But when they talk about unification, they mean China has to be unified under principles like democracy, freedom, rule of law, human rights, and nationalization of the military. So of course, KMT can still talk about unification like that. And narratives like these fall into the boundaries or the realms of Taiwan's laws. So it's legitimate, it's acceptable. Another question is, who doesn't allow people to talk about Taiwan independence? Or who prohibits people from talking about Taiwan independence? Communist China, of course, and also the fifth column inside Taiwan. And we talked about the reasons that Beijing opposes Taiwan independence. They want to mobilize their people, and they want to divide Taiwan society, and they want to use that as an excuse to force other countries from helping Taiwan or from assisting Taiwan, either militarily or diplomatically or even economically. So the reason for the main reason for China or Communist China to oppose Taiwan independence is to divert people's attention. Divert people's attention away from noticing that the Communism or Communist Party is a true problem or the core question of the problem of Taiwan problem. Actually, it's not the Taiwan problem as I see it. It's a Communism problem or Communist Party problem, rather. So these observations beg yet another question. Who's the real troublemaker in the region? Let's quickly review what Communist China has been doing lately in terms of military buildup. In terms of Navy, they've been building so far three aircraft carriers and the fourth one is now under construction. And they've been building and launching so-called big destroyers one after another. And they've been building and launching nuclear submarines. And they've been building and launching unmanned surface vehicles and unmanned submarines. And these are the naval buildup. And in terms of Air Force, they've been developing things like stealthy fighters like J-20, J-35, long-range bombers like H-6 and the rumored H-20. Not to mention the development of the loyal wingman drones and the AEWNCs, so-called airborne early warning and control planes. And in terms of the Army, they've been developing new tanks and new cannons and even what they call the machine dogs. And let's not forget about their rocket force, the development or the launch or the test launch of all sorts of rockets or missiles from short-range to long-range and even to ICBMs. As you can imagine, with a military buildup of this size or of this magnitude, it'll cost you a fortune to do it. So it is reported, according to their official report, they spent a total of $275 billion to $277 billion last year just for the military expanding. And with an increase rate of 7% for last year, this is an increase of the 11th year in a row. And these are the figures they can provide for the public. But it is widely believed that they have a hidden budget or they have an invisible budget for the military expenditure. That includes R&D of a new type of new technology for weapons and the spending for so-called armed police, but actually that's their second army, and also the so-called military and civilian infusion. In the Western term, we call it a dual use for military and civilian purposes. So their actual military spending or military expenditure could be 30 to 50% higher than the public figure or the figure the government provides for the public. So that means, roughly speaking, their expenditure is about 12 to 15 times bigger than that of Taiwan's. And the next question is, what do they do with these newly acquired military capabilities? Well, it is obvious that they use this kind of newly acquired military capability to harass the neighboring countries and the neighboring area, like the so-called Taiwan Strait crisis and the military exercises and militarization of the reefs of the South China Sea. So what does Beijing do with these newly acquired military capabilities? In addition to conducting military exercises or drills on how to fight American troops, they harass the neighboring countries. For instance, in early May to early June, they harassed the Japanese around the Diaoyu Island or the Senkaku Islands in Japanese terms, and also in the Unaguri Island area. They harassed the Filipinos around the Scarborough Shoal area, and they harassed the Vietnamese in the area of Paracel Islands. So putting all these observations together, who would you say the real troublemaker for the area is? And that's all I want to share with you today. I hope you like today's program, and please share it with your friends, and do subscribe to it, and do click the icon bell. That's all for today. I'll see you next time.