Strategy Insights Ep104: Will U.S. Abandon Taiwan? Worst-Case Trump–Xi Outcome: Taiwan Forced Talks!

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Professor Ming's Strategic Insights. A few weeks from now, Xi Jinping will be on his visit to Washington DC to meet with President Trump. I noticed that many people are speculating what would be on top of his wish list when he talks to President Trump. Most people are saying that he'll be talking about things like tariff war and Taiwan and things like that. Well, that may be partially true. But personally, I would argue that what's on top of Xi Jinping's mind would be his tenure, his fourth term in the 21st Party Congress to be held in next year. I would say that he's weaving a new grand strategy, how to make the best use of this visit and meeting with President Trump to achieve his new goal, his top goal, meaning to secure his fourth term. You may be wondering how these two could be linked together. Let me try to work out their strategic logic for you. In the eyes of Beijing's leaders, President Trump is now facing multiple problems in his policies. First, the war in Iran and the first in the Middle East is still going on. And since the United States is caught in a stalemate, they can neither fight nor enter into a negotiation with Iran. And that war with Iran has depleted their arsenal to a large extent. So they're in a big trouble, if not a major trouble. And that's the first thing that worries them. The second thing is the Houthis, the Houthis militia in Yemen. They are now attacking the ships and causing a problem with the oil shipment around the world. And that's the second problem for them. And not to mention the Hezbollah and the Shia Muslim militia in both Iraq and Syria. They are now taking bolder actions, and they're on the area. And furthermore, the war in Ukraine is still going on. It's fighting fiercely, and the United States has to provide some assistance to them, which may take toll on the United States' arsenal. What makes things worse for President Trump is the inflation they're experiencing in the United States. And people are complaining more and more about the increasing food prices and everything, which cost dearly about President Trump's popularity. It drops to the lowest point of 36%. So that means that Trump will be facing a major problem in the coming election in this November, meaning the congressional re-election. He may lose not only a few seats, he may be facing a problem of losing one chamber or even two. So that means, in the eyes of Beijing leaders, that President Trump needs to score somewhere, and score heavily somewhere. So this is an excellent opportunity for the Beijing leaders. The question is, how are they going to make the best use of this unprecedented opportunity? Remember the grand deal, the grand bargain we mentioned a few weeks ago? So if Xi Jinping meets with President Trump in this coming September, then he may bring up the question to Trump face to face by saying that, look, I'd be happy to offer you a big present, a major present. I'd be happy to sign the trade agreement with you, and I promise to buy more agricultural producers from you. I'll buy wheat, corn, and soybeans in mass quantity, and I'll buy oil and natural gas and chips and high-end products from you. So all the good stuff, and I'll be happy to do that for you. Furthermore, if you need or if you wish, I'd be happy to persuade or even to pressure Iran into a ceasefire or into entering into a peace talk with you. Or even furthermore, I'd be happy to persuade President Putin of Russia to stop fighting or to enter into a peace talk with you. Or at the least, I can reduce my assistance or my aid to Russia and to Iran. So anything I can do to make you happy, I'd be happy to do that. Then President Xi Jinping would continue, if I'm so generous to you, Mr. President Trump, what would you give me in return? Or put it the other way, what do I want from you? First is, can you cut off or can you stop the arms sales to Taiwan, the 14 billion U.S. dollar sale to Taiwan, all the high-end weapons and things like that? Can you stop that? And to follow up, would you be happy to sign a fourth communique with me to reiterate or to reaffirm the August 17 communique saying that no more or no longer arms sales to Taiwan? And still, even further, or can you persuade President Trump to persuade Taiwan or to pressure Taiwan to enter into a peace talk with me, with myself? Well, as I see it, most people tend to assess Xi Jinping's policy, go toward Taiwan a little bit too high. They've been claiming that Xi Jinping wants to invade Taiwan or to incorporate Taiwan completely by 2027 or 2028. Well, I would say they will not rule out the possibility, but they think that's kind of difficult. So as of now, in the eyes of the Beijing leaders, it will be acceptable. Only if they can draw Taiwan a little closer to Beijing, that's good enough. So what do we mean by draw Taiwan a little closer to Beijing? For instance, if Taiwan agrees to sit down and talk to Beijing about the possibility of a peace talk, about the acceptance of a one country, two system formula and things like that, that's very good. That's good enough for them by now. And as they or at least Xi Jinping would think this way. As long as President Trump pressures Taiwan, then it could be done. It's easy like that. And as I mentioned this before, if you can do that, Mr. President Trump, I, Xi Jinping, will be very happy to nominate you to run for the Peace Prize of the Nobel Prize. And you, President Trump, will be the great peacemaker. You solved an 80-year stalemate here in the Taiwan Strait, and you dismiss or you cancel the possibility of war completely. You solved the Taiwan problem or the Taiwan Strait problem, and you solved the crisis in East Asia. You make great contribution to world peace. Xi Jinping will say all kinds of good words to President Trump if he can do it. Now, if President Trump buys what Xi Jinping says, meaning that he's been tricked, then what comes naturally would be a cognitive warfare waged by Beijing against Taiwan and Taiwanese people. They'll say the main things like, well, look, now the United States or the Americans are giving up Taiwan. So you have no way to go. You have to choose between the two. If you choose to enter into a peace talk with Mainland or with Beijing, then that means you're choosing peace. And if you choose not to enter into a peace talk with us, that means you're choosing war, because the United States has abandoned you, and the United States or Americans will not come to your rescue and your doom. That means for Taiwan, the worst scenario will come as early as late September, when Xi Jinping is visiting Washington and meet with President Trump. And it would happen as late as 2028, when we're having a presidential election in late that year or earlier that year, then there'll be another big shock for Taiwan. Or the worst will come even earlier. As soon as our parliament start their new session in this coming fall, then they'll probably pass an act or something asking us to do a plebiscite or referendum, whether we should accept the one country, two system formula offered by Beijing. And that's probably one of the worst scenarios we can think of now. So if that should happen, that means Beijing is now getting Taiwan. Taiwan belongs to them. And the United States will be losing Taiwan from that moment on. And there'll be a chain reaction in East Asian countries and even around the world. But that's something we're not going to dwell upon today. If necessary, we'll talk about it sometime later. So in conclusion, if that should happen that way, then Xi Jinping's fourth term in the 21st Party Congress will be no problem. He'll get it 100%. And this is their idea of a grand deal or grand strategy or whatever they call it. Well, some people may think that's out of the question, that's impossible. But let me put it this way. Communists are thinking dialectically. They're verbal to contemplate on all kinds of possibilities. And they're bold enough to deceive their opponents. And they're bold enough to put things into reality. So they will try it. The question is, can we see through their conspiracy? And can we come up with some adequate responses to their actions? And that's something that's left for us to work on. Well, I think that's all I want to share with you today. And I would consider it as an early warning. And I hope things will not happen that way. But we must be vigilant. Well, I hope you liked today's program. Please share it with your friends and please subscribe if you haven't done so. And do remember to click the icon bell. Well, that's all for today. I'll see you next time.