Strategy Insights Ep 111: ON THE EVE OF THE FIFTH PLENUM REPORTED PURGE 五中全會前夕 驚爆大清洗

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Professor Ming's Strategic Insights. According to the news report, the Chinese Communist Party is going to hold their fifth plenum of the 20th Party Congress in late October. If the report is correct, the meeting is going to be held from the 26th to the 29th of October. The major theme, according to the news report, is unswerving advancement of full and rigorous party governance. So it's something about party building and party disciplines and things like that. That's the official line. But in my opinion, the plenum is going to deal with some other more important issues, such as how they are going to describe Xi Jinping's political status inside the party. Well, you might find this strange. Isn't his status established and firm as usual, as before? How come you say that that they're going to deal with his party status. Let me put it this way. I'm not saying that they are going to report or they are going to say that his political status is going to change or is going to go through some kind of a major shift or something like that. It's not that. It's the wording and the description of his authority and his status and his power status inside the party and inside the party structure. Let me give an example to clarify my point. In the past, they used to say, we're going to unswervingly safeguard the authority of the Party Central Committee and to safeguard the authority of the Secretary General, or to safeguard the authority of the Party Central Committee under the leadership of the Secretary General. But actually, they're saying only one thing. We want to safeguard the authority of Secretary General Xi Jinping. but they want to say in two sentences to make it less personal, but still personal enough. So that's strange way to describe it, but anyway, that's how they do it. So what we want to see is there's any major or even slight change in the wording or in the order of the wordings and things like that, because they pay much attention to trivial things like this. And they think that's a very important sign for the status of Xi Jinping, and for the status of the Central Party's Committee, and things like that. So anyway, that's their habit, but that's something that we need to read between the lines, just to understand how the politics is maneuvering in Beijing, and also all over China. So that's something that we must pay attention to, and that's the first thing. Well, that's something that the government or the party wouldn't say, But they would actually do in the plenum and that's the first thing the second thing there They're going to deal with is the personnel issue first with the Central Committee and the Politburo There are so many members who are either purged or suspended or Something happened to them. So anyway, he or she left the Politburo and left the Central Committee so they gonna fill the vacancies first they're going to endorse those who are purged for instance the The vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, General Zhang Youxia, and a member of the Central Military Commission, three-star general Liu Zhenli, and also the head, the former head of Xinjiang province or Xinjiang Autonomous Region, Ma Xinrui. These are the former Politburo members who are purged from their rank. So whether they're going to fill the vacancies left by these three people or not, that remains to be something to be watched. And then down to the Central Military Commission level, it's much more serious. According to incomplete statistics, we're looking at about one to two dozens of people missing from the Central Committee. I'm talking about the full members and also the alternate members. There are about 15 to 18 full members expelled from the central committee and another 10 to 12 purged from the alternate membership. So whether they're going to fill up these vacancies are something to be watched and something to be monitored. But anyway, they're going to endorse all these purges and perhaps they're going to do some additional punishment. That's something that we don't know yet. Something I forgot to mention. The heads of the following departments were all purged. Foreign Affairs, Agriculture, Emergency Management Department, and Security Regulatory Commission, they were all purged. So, there should be some people be promoted to fill up these posts. But the question is, will they also be promoted to enter the Central Commission? That's something that, again, needs to be watched. Well, that's only one side of the coin. The other side of the coin is the military. Well, as far as we know, that Xi Jinping has purged, in these recent two, three years, Xi Jinping has purged 57 three-star generals. 32 are officially reported, and they're being announced, and they are purged. And 25 are still missing, I mean, missing from the public scene. So chances are the bulk of these 25 three-star generals will be purged eventually. So we're looking at more than 53 Star Generals be purged from the so-called Liberation Army of the Chinese Army. We talked about how bad the situation is in the Central Military Commission. There were originally seven members, and now there are only two left. So whether they're going to fill up the vacancies or not is something to be determined. But under the Central Military Commission, we see that the leading commanders or the heads of the rocket forces and the Equipment Development Department and Political Work Department were all, shall I say, eradicated completely. And now they are all under acting leaders. These are all temporary posts, so we don't know what would happen to them. Chances are, he's not going to fill them up in this fifth plenum. It would be much easier for Xi Jinping to fill them up in the coming 21st Party Congress is coming in 2027. So I'm not saying that he's not going to do that for sure. I'm saying that it's a better bet for him to do it that way one year from now. That's the top echelons of the Chinese Liberation Army. So after waves of purge in the army, there are only six three-star generals who are still active. So that's kind of absurd. So we're looking at the three-star generals missing from branches like Army, Navy, Air Force, and most of the five theaters, the East, West, Central, North, and South. should be at least 30 to 40 three-star generals. Vacancies remain to be filled up. So that's a major task. Although there are so many two-star generals or one-star generals, but the question is who will be trusted by Xi Jinping of the remaining Central Military Commission members? Xi Jinping himself and the other guy, the other general by the name of Zhang Xuming, who's now promoted to the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. So that's a major problem. As we suggested, they may not want to fill up the vacancies by now. But the question is, if they don't do it now, they may be looking at an incomplete and maybe incompetent command chain in the military structure. So that's a major, major problem if they really want to go to war, or perhaps we should put it this way. If they want to defend themselves successfully in military sense, that's something that has to be done fairly soon. So what I'm saying is the importance of this fifth party plenum is not only important by itself. It is actually a prelude to the 21st Party Congress coming up next year. Xi Jinping has to pave the way for this 21st Party Congress. As we suggested before. Xi Jinping's fourth term is something desirable for himself, but it's not totally unquestionable, especially under the situation of missteps in many areas of his policies, agriculture, industry, export, foreign policy, and even military building. All these could pose a challenge to his fourth term. That's something he has to pay extra attention to. And there's only one year left for him to make all these arrangements, personnel arrangements and policy directions and perhaps party disciplines and things like that. So it is important in that sense. It opens up a window for us to peep into the power maneuvering and also party struggles and exchange of benefits and interests and everything. So it's a very good opportunity and it's coming up in one to two weeks So let's keep our eyes open and see what what happens. Well, that's all I want to share with you today I hope you liked today's program and please share it with your friends and please subscribe to it if you haven't done so and Again, do remember to click the icon bell so that you get the on-time notification when we have a new program on Well, I'll see you next week