Two deadly disasters. A sudden military directive. And a power struggle inside Beijing that appears to be entering its most decisive phase yet.
In this episode of FinalWar with Katherine Hu, we examine a series of extraordinary developments unfolding ahead of China's Fifth Plenum. Why did two major disasters trigger such unusual political reactions? Why did China's Supreme People's Procuratorate suddenly step in? Why did the Central Military Commission release a new set of measures focused on military supervision and control? And what do these events reveal about the struggle between competing centers of power inside Beijing?
As the countdown to the Fifth Plenum continues, signs of a broader political realignment are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. This is not simply a story about accidents, military regulations, or personnel changes.
It is a story about power. And about who may ultimately control China's future.
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May 2026. Hunan explodes. Shaanxi follows. Two major disasters. One dangerous question.
What is happening inside Beijing? Then comes an extraordinary move.
The Central Military Commission acts. The struggle at the top is escalating.
Welcome back to Final War with Catherine Hu.
As May 2026 unfolds, China's diplomatic stage is filled with headline-grabbing events
from the Trump-Xi summit to the Putin-Xi summit. But while these high-profile meetings dominate
the spotlight, the power struggle behind the curtain between two centers of authority at
the top of Beijing has not weakened. It is intensifying. And nowhere is that struggle
more visible than in the battle to secure control over the military.
Today, we return to the ongoing political drama inside Zhongnanhai.
Tragically, a series of deadly safety disasters across China has become the eye of this political
storm. And it is ordinary Chinese citizens at the bottom who continue to pay the price
with their lives, without ever knowing why. On May 4, 2026, a devastating explosion ripped
through a fireworks factory in Liuyang, Hunan province in southern China, causing heavy
The reported death toll climbed from an initial 3 dead and 25 injured to 26 dead and 61 injured.
The scene was shocking. In the factory's core area, not a single building remained intact.
Drone footage showed what looked more like a battlefield than an industrial site.
The blast was extraordinarily powerful, sending a gray-white mushroom cloud hundreds of meters
into the sky. The shockwave shattered doors and windows in homes several kilometers away,
while boulders weighing hundreds of pounds were hurled onto nearby roads.
Every building in the core factory zone was destroyed.
The State Council later established an investigation team to look into the disaster.
Just two weeks later, a gas explosion tore through a coal mine in Shanxi province in northern China.
At least 82 miners were killed, two were reported missing, and 128 were injured.
It was China's deadliest mining disaster since 2009. The State Council subsequently
established a special investigation team to determine what happened.
In less than three weeks, more than 100 people lost their lives in fire, smoke and devastation.
Was it simply a tragic coincidence? Or was something else happening beneath the surface?
Yes, and there was a warning sign before these disasters took place.
One week before the first major explosion, on April 28th, she chaired the CCP Politburo's
monthly meeting. The focus of that meeting was disaster prevention and emergency response.
During the session, she stressed that responsibility for disaster prevention,
mitigation and relief must be fully implemented. But behind that seemingly routine statement
lies one of the most important rules in the CCP's political system.
No major safety disasters during your tenure. It doesn't matter how strong your political
connections are. It doesn't matter how many accomplishments are on your record.
If a major accident kills dozens of people in your jurisdiction,
your chances of making the next promotion list can disappear overnight.
The political consequences of these two disasters were highly predictable.
The CCP's fifth plenum is approaching, with July or August widely expected as the most
likely time frame. According to our political sources, party elders and the reformist camp
have already reached a consensus to formally announce arrangements for the departure of Xi
at the fifth plenum. That makes the current period one of the most sensitive windows for
provincial and ministerial level personnel appointments ahead of the meeting. Whichever
side commands the stronger network of provincial and ministerial allies will enter this contest
with a significant advantage. And the political fallout from these two disasters appeared to fall
with remarkable precision on Hunan Governor Mao Weiming and Shaanxi Governor Lu Dongliang.
Both men are widely viewed as officials the Huwen camp may seek to promote as it prepares for the
Lu Dongliang, in particular, is only 52 years old, making him one of China's youngest provincial
and ministerial level officials. These two disasters may have severely damaged their
political prospects. And once again, it was ordinary people who paid the price.
China's usual approach to major accidents is well known. If a disaster can be downplayed,
it usually is. But this time was different.
The scale and severity of both disasters were reported everywhere, both inside China and
internationally, as if there was a determination to make sure no one missed the story. Even the
Times noted that China's top leader Xi Jinping issued instructions on Saturday calling for
intensified rescue efforts. It also reported that she ordered authorities to investigate the cause
of the explosion and stressed that those responsible should be held accountable in
accordance with the law. But perhaps the most revealing detail was this. Shortly after she
issued those instructions, the official death toll began climbing rapidly, with updated figures
being released almost every few minutes. When you look at the timing, the publicity,
and the political consequences, do these still appear to be ordinary industrial accidents?
Or were they carefully packaged moves in a much larger political struggle?
Among Beijing's competing factions, the answer to that question has already become self-evident.
And many are watching the situation with growing concern as this final political frenzy unfolds.
Many of our viewers may find this hard to believe. Some may not believe it at all.
Based on basic moral instincts, most people would assume that even a deeply flawed government
would not deliberately engineer major disasters that cause large numbers of innocent casualties.
But that assumption may underestimate just how fierce the power struggles inside the Chinese
Communist Party can become. Violence and lies have long been the two central pillars of Chinese
Communist Party rule. On one side is violence, the use of force and fear to seize power and
suppress dissent. On the other side are lies, used to manufacture hatred, shape public perception,
and sustains political indoctrination. The two work hand in hand. Lies provide justification
for acts of violence, or help conceal them. Violence in turn removes those who try to expose
the lies. From the land reform campaigns of the early years, to the Cultural Revolution,
and later to modern systems of social control, the combination of violence and deception has
remained a recurring feature throughout the Party's century-long history. In June 1989,
why did the CCP's conservative faction send field army units and tanks into Beijing? At its core,
the objective was not simply to confront student hunger strikes, it was to deal a decisive blow
to the reformist faction within the Party, which at the time held a position of strength.
The tragic result was that countless innocent students became victims.
After the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, why did the Xi faction insist on lockdowns and the
zero-COVID policy? At its core, the policy was tied to Xi's effort to secure another term in
office while sidelining the more science-based pandemic response advocated by then-premier
In August 2015, the Tianjin explosion shocked China. The first blast was equivalent to roughly
3 tons of TNT. Just 30 seconds later, a second and much more powerful explosion followed,
sending a mushroom cloud into the sky. According to estimates, the second blast
carried the destructive force of approximately 24 tons of TNT. Together,
the two explosions were said to equal the power of 53 Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Overseas media reports citing sources within China's People's Armed Police
claimed that the death toll exceeded 1,400, while more than 600 people disappeared without a trace.
Some were believed to have been instantly vaporized by the extreme heat and chemical
reactions unleashed by the explosions. The tragedy was not merely an industrial disaster.
At its core, it was a coercive signal sent by former CCP leader Jiang Zemin during his
Likewise, do you still remember the Hong Kong fire of November 2025?
The disaster, surrounded by unanswered questions, became Hong Kong's deadliest fire since 1948.
At its core, it was a human tragedy staged by the Xi faction as part of its political struggle.
And this may not be the end. Before the fifth plenum arrives, more tragedies could still
unfold across China. They may be the final frenzy of an emperor who refuses to step down.
The real center of power in Beijing today, the Central Party decision-making and coordination
body, has shown no sign of holding back in its moves against the Xi faction.
Instead, it launched a direct counter-offensive. One of its most immediate responses to the two
major safety disasters in May was to direct the Supreme People's Procuratorate to place
the cases under special supervision. So what exactly does that mean?
What happens when the Supreme People's Procuratorate formally takes over a case in this
way? This means the investigation is no longer something the State Council investigation team
and local governments can handle behind closed doors through private consultations and internal
reports. Every file, every confidential lead, every witness statement, all of it must be sealed
and transferred to the Supreme People's Procuratorate. In practical terms, a large
share of the State Council investigation team's control over the case is stripped away. And that
creates a carefully designed reverse investigation channel. Anyone who tries to interfere,
conceal information, or muddy the waters may ultimately find the investigation turning back
on them. At the same time, an extremely important personnel change took place inside the Supreme
People's Procuratorate. On May 27th, 2026, officials announced that Chen Dongsheng had
formally been appointed as a member of the party leadership group of the Supreme People's
Procuratorate and director of its political department. It is a position that sits directly
over the career path of prosecutors across China. As a result, if local procuratorates were tempted
to cooperate with the Xi camp by directing responsibility for the two accidents towards
certain party elders or reformist figures, Chen's presence in this role would serve as a powerful
deterrent. In Zhongnanhai's political chess game, the decisive moves are rarely made one at a time.
They come in sequence. On the military side, another heavy lock had just fallen into place.
On the evening of May 27th, 2026, the Central Military Commission suddenly released a document
titled, Several Measures on Strengthening the Education, Management, and Supervision of Senior
Military Officers. Seven sections, 26 provisions. In simple terms, it functioned like a digital set
of electronic restraints imposed on theater commanders and group army commanders across
the military. Under the labels of military exercises, combat readiness, stability maintenance,
and emergency response, it closed off the channels for temporary troop mobilizations
and made it clear that no one could move a single soldier without authorization.
What is the most sensitive issue inside any military? Logistics and ammunition. Among these
26 provisions, the allocation of strategic supplies, including diesel fuel, heavy fuel oil,
aviation fuel, and standard ammunition stockpiles, has been classified as a sensitive matter
requiring full disclosure and real-time reporting. If a theater command wants to use even a single
ton of fuel or a single shipment of ammunition, a digital record must be created within the Central
Military Commission's approval system, and the entire process is subject to oversight
through the Central Monitoring Network. In practical terms, this cuts directly into the
military's logistical lifeline, leaving little room for younger officers or regional commanders
to move troops or military vehicles without authorization. Moreover, whether in Xinhua
News Agency's official reports or in commentaries published by the PLA Daily, one message appeared
That phrase matters. During Xi Jinping's era of centralized authority,
references to collective leadership were almost unheard of. It is a political term
more commonly associated with the Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao period. In my view,
this supervision measure did not come from Xi. It came from the Central Party decision-making
and coordination body. General Liu Yuan is currently responsible for coordinating
Central Military Commission affairs within that body, effectively serving as an acting
chairman of the commission. This measure does more than block the Xi faction from reclaiming
control of the military. It also closes off the possibility of any sudden military mobilization
before the fifth plenum arrives, whether justified in the name of domestic unrest,
an international crisis, or tensions in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, on May 22,
China's securities regulator imposed penalties on Tiger Brokers,
Fu Tu Holdings, and Long Bridge Securities for conducting unauthorized business activities.
Many interpreted the move as another sign that Xi was pushing China further toward economic
isolation. That may not be the real story. Behind these three brokerage firms stand major backers
such as Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi. And all three internet-based brokerages expanded rapidly
after Xi came to power. So when regulators suddenly move against them, the political
significance is difficult to ignore. In my view, this is also part of the Hu-Wen camp's
counteroffensive against the Xi faction. And the target is one of Xi's most important foundations
of support, the profit-driven intermediaries and business proxies closely tied to his political
network. The countdown to the fifth plenum has already begun. And as the showdown approaches,
the power struggle at the top of Beijing is reaching a boiling point.
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