"꿈을 믿지 마라" 통계물리학자가 알려주는 로또 번호 고르는 방법 (김범준 교수 2부)

There are really people who spend a lot of money on lotteries. But unfortunately, there are so many people who write it vertically. There are people who combine birthdays. Don't do that. The probability of winning first place is about 8 million. Even if it's such a small probability, Of course, someone will win. I actually buy the same lottery. When you write down the lottery number, The trick is... Many people say that the culture of fortune-telling has been going on for thousands of years. Accordingly, through a lot of data, There are some people who think that the statistical results are clear. I don't actually agree with this story. There are many possibilities of fortune-telling. Maybe 60 times 60 times 60. I heard that the last number is a little different. If you do the multiplication, How much is it? It's going to be about a few tens of thousands. Then what that means is... At least tens of thousands of people Statistics on fortune-telling data must be collected. You can make statistical inferences that are statistically meaningful. But for thousands of years in the past, There must have been a computer. There must have been an Excel. It's not possible to get meaningful results by statistical processing. Maybe it's like this. There was a very famous great man. He had a great academic achievement. Unfortunately, he died on a young day. This is his fortune. Then, of course, how can people think it's easy? If so, the same person as his fortune You can think of it as a high probability of aging at a young age. In fact, this is a very baseless generalization. It's true that this person aged at a young age. It's also true that the fortune-teller is doing something. Is there any relationship between the two? Or is it in a relationship? We need to confirm this. We can continue this inference. But with a very small number of examples, I think it's probably a generalization of fortune-telling. I think it's mostly a claim. In fact, there is no basis. That's my honest opinion. And even if there is a relationship, The causality that can explain it I can't even imagine it from a scientist's point of view. It's decided when the fortune-teller was born. It's decided what month, what day, what time. I can't make any causal inference. I don't stop you from doing it. But don't believe it. If you actually try fortune-telling, It's too natural to tell you. Or it's a very wide range. For example, don't go to the East Sea in August. Wouldn't it be natural? When we think about the future, We humans tend to be uncertain. There's no basis. You're going to be like this this year. The fact that I'm listening to you It has the effect of giving people a sense of psychological stability. So you do it for fun. I don't want you to make a big decision about your life with it. From the point of view of scientists, Lotto is a game that can be easily understood. As you all know, If you get six out of 45 numbers, It's a way to win first place. I picked six out of 45 numbers. The probability of winning first place is It's about 1 in 8 million. If you buy a lotto with 8 million different numbers, You're definitely going to win. But in fact, There's no one who can buy 8 million. The amount is too big. But in Korea, A lot of numbers are sold. Usually, once a week, There are about 10 winners. What does that mean? The number of lottos sold a week in Korea It means almost 100 million. In Korea, There are a lot of people who are showing great passion. Even if it's such a small probability, You keep getting confused or misunderstood. Of course, someone will win. There are 10 winners a week. But the probability of someone buying a lotto It's so small. I can give you a tip on how to choose a lotto number. Actually, I'm sure. Lotto numbers don't have any patterns. No matter what number you write, You'll win the lotto for 1 in 8 million. Whether you write 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, No matter what number you write, Regardless of what you wrote, One lotto you bought It's 1 in 8 million. It's a very low probability. But what can I say? If you're 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. I bought a lotto with six numbers. But the same number as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. The person who wrote it is not alone. For example, let's say 10,000 people. Then what happens? The probability of winning the lotto you wrote is 1 in 8 million. It's the same. But if you win, You have to split the prize money with 10,000 people. So when you write a lotto number, You have to write a number that people don't write. It's hard for us to find a number that people don't write. Don't just worry about it. Choose the number automatically. Any number is the same. Don't write 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. It's a well-known story. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. There are so many people who write it in a row. Every week, 10,000 people write like that. If you write 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and win, There's not much prize money. And if you look at the lotto paper, There are so many people who write it in a row. Don't do that. And there are people who combine birthdays. My birthday, my mother's birthday, my brother's birthday. But if you combine birthdays, No one's birthday is after the 31st. So if you combine birthdays, You don't write down the numbers after the 31st. But in fact, there's no way after the 31st. There's no way it's going to come out. You can't predict it at all. So if you write down your birthday, If there are a lot of people who combine birthdays, When you win first place, There could be a lot of numbers. So just do it automatically. It's the most comfortable thing to do. One thing I really want to ask you is, There are really people who spend a lot of money on lotto. But what I'm sorry about is, What do they think? I've been spending a lot of money on lotto purchases for 10 years. I've never won first place. So now it's time to win first place. Like when you bought a lotto in the past, There are people who think they've invested a lot of money. Lotto is not an investment at all. You've spent a lot of money in the past. I bought a lot of lottos. The first college student I bought today. One lotto or the winning rate is exactly the same. So don't spend a lot of money on lotto. And I'd like to ask you while you're buying a lotto. Because the probability is so small. Don't expect to win first place. Actually, I sometimes buy lotto. Don't you feel that way when you buy a lotto? I mean, if this happens, A small sense of happiness for a week. If that's the case, I don't oppose buying a lotto at all. But I don't think this is really going to win. It's better not to. It's because the probability is so low. How many cars are there in a 10km section? We call it density. How many cars are there in how many streets? We can call it the density of the car. Of course, even in the same road section. When there are more cars, the density increases. Then the traffic situation will begin. Why does this traffic situation occur? And how do you explain this in theory? It's also a research topic in the field of statistics. The consistent results are natural in a way. If the density increases, the identity begins. It's a natural result. We can look at various characteristics. One of them is that traffic identity. Even if the density is just one value, There may or may not be an identity. What does this mean? At first, the traffic flow is very free. The cars are passing by well. As the density increases, the traffic situation begins. When the car is running freely and the identity occurs. At that time, the density is quite high. It's a good flow, and the identity starts. Even if there's a lot of density, it just flows well. But once the identity occurs, Even if the density decreases, the identity does not disappear well. So no matter what density it is, When the car is getting closer to the traffic jam, I don't know if there's a traffic identity. The car is getting smaller and smaller. Anyway, after that, the traffic situation will be solved. It's a little different from thinking so intuitively. Anyway, the most important thing is When the density of the car increases on the highway, It's definitely true that the traffic situation begins. Even if it's not an accident. It's also called a ghost identity. There's nothing wrong with the road. As the density increases, the identity occurs automatically. Not everyone drives in the same way. If someone is surprised and steps on the brake, When the brake light turns red, The car behind the car is suddenly surprised and steps on the brake. So if a car flows well and suddenly decelerates excessively, Then suddenly the identity can start. If you're trapped in a traffic identity, There's nothing you can do. It's hard for a person to make a rational judgment It's actually hard to get out of the traffic identity. Besides, you're using a traffic stop program these days. Then, when a certain road starts to block, These navigators tell you about the right-hand roads. As cars get out of the right-hand road, The section where the original identity was, The identity will decrease. So what happens now? The right-hand road starts to block. This is called a parallel state in physics. In the end, if the identity continues, It takes time for you to go back. There may not be a big difference in the time it takes to go back to the original path. So if the identity is severe, Except for being at ease, It can't be of much help. Of course, people who know the small roads in the area. Then, even information that is not used in the navigator. You can get some help by using it. But from my experience, My husband enjoys the situation. He listens to music and talks to his family after a long time. I think it would be better not to be stressed. I've thought about it before. I think a lot of people will agree with me. For example, in a 100-meter race, A player is 100 meters faster than another player. Even if it's 0.1 second faster, The player who ran 0.1 second faster and won the gold medal. There will be a lot of economic gains to be made after that. In the end, in this problem, I don't think there's much difference between people's innate personal abilities. But by the small difference, The player's income can change a lot. I think there's something similar in our society. Students take the CSAT these days. Even if there's a small difference in the CSAT score, What kind of university does this student go to? What kind of future do you have? If you compare the economic gains you can get in society in the future, The small difference in skills that a student has in a high school. If you think about the profits of these students for the rest of their lives in the future, I think we can make a big difference. If this is the case, What choice will students and parents make? In order to raise the CSAT score even a little bit, You have no choice but to make a big economic investment. Because most people try to judge rationally. For example, if you want to give your child a 10-point score, The private education fee I have to invest is 10 billion won. But if you do that, The only thing this child will gain in his life is 1 billion won. Then, in fact, from the parents' point of view, Don't invest 10 billion won in private education. It's much better to give 10 billion won to your child. But if the small difference in CSAT score If it's a situation that makes a big difference in the student's future income, You're going to have to deal with a lot of economic spending. I think that's a big problem in education in our society. If that happens, what's going to happen now? A child in a family that can spend a lot of private education With that help, I'm going to a better university. The future income is getting bigger. But if it's a child in a family that can't afford that kind of economic burden, You can't see the benefits. Then the university you're going to and your future job will change. In the end, just because parents don't have enough economic income, That's what happens to the child. Then, in fact, how can we solve this? The theory is simple. What should I do? If there's a difference in the score, As long as there's no big difference in the future income. Then parents don't have to invest a lot of private education. You're not trying to get a good score. So there must be a lot of different jobs people have. If there's a future where the difference in income between jobs is reduced, In fact, I think the education problem can be solved according to that. But it's not easy. If you think about the experience I've had so far, I'm sorry, but I don't think it's going to change. In fact, this is a problem that has made physicists very angry. There's a reason for that. According to the classical science taught by Newton, It can be said that the future is decided. In the end, if we all think extremely, It's a gathering of particles. Then what will happen to my fate, my future? It's because I don't recognize it. I think it could already be decided. What should I eat tomorrow morning? We all think that's how I feel. If it's tomorrow morning, you're going to eat something anyway. Then, if you push Newton's deterministic worldview to the extreme, What are you going to eat tomorrow morning? It's just that we haven't realized it yet. It's already been decided. This was a big problem. But in the 20th century, This extreme determinism of Newton's classical theory It doesn't exist in our world. People have come to realize that. So these days, Newton's one and only deterministic future. Even scientists usually think that's not true. Don't worry. Just do what you want to do. If you choose to do whatever you want, It's your choice. Research that follows this statistical method. It's the whole pattern that tells you. It doesn't provide a specific prediction of each person. But if we know what pattern the whole thing follows, We can pay attention to each person. You can use it as a measure. For example, Korean office workers. I work at my job and live with my family with my salary. How much money do you need a month on average? We need to have data. When the country decides, Oh, this person has too little income. I just need to help. To set a standard, The same probability and statistical survey. It's essential. Usually when we say prediction, There are two things in physics. One is a prediction of the future. The other is a statistical prediction. How many people will benefit from welfare benefits in Korea? If you think about it, it's not a prediction of the future. It's a statistical prediction. So most of the research in statistical physics It's a prediction of the future. What pattern does this problem have now? It's often a statistical prediction. It's not predicting the future. But this is also very necessary. I'm sure it's important.