Yankees next move REVEALED - This is Perfect...

Last winter, the New York Yankees gave Paul Blackburn $2 million. For that, they got 85 innings with a 1.59 ERA, only 15 earned runs all season long. And now the Daily News says the Yankees have strong interest in bringing him back to the team. They also like Tim Hill and checked back in on Ryan Yarbrough. And my answer is yes. But there is a catch, and you should hear it before you get this excited. This is also a story about how the Yankees have spent for years. Big contracts got the headlines, but a $2 million reliever pitched in 62 games. This is the kind of move that does not trend on Twitter, and still matters more than a lot of them once we get to October. Because the 1.59 ERA is the part of this story that is not the whole truth. So let's go through what is real, what is luck, and why this is a great move at what will be a great price for the Yankees going forwards, as they continue to have one of the best bullpens in the league. Let's start with how rare this season was. Since 1990, only three Yankee seasons have had an ERA at or under 170 or better at at least 80 innings. Dellin Betances did it twice, 2014 and 2015. Paul Blackburn is the third. He was not a one inning guy either. Blackburn pitched in 62 games. He started two of them, picked up 11 holds and one save, and struck out 69 batters. That is a swing man. The Yankees used him all over the place. And remember where this started. Blackburn came to the Yankees at the 2025 stretch run after the Mets with a 5.28 ERA over 15.1 innings in a Yankees uniform. Nobody called that a steal. It looked like depth and nothing else. And a year later, he is one of only three Yankees seasons since 1990 with an ERA that low, over 80 innings. That is why this team wants him back. 59 hits allowed in 85 innings, a WHIP of 1.08. Opponents were not stringing together rallies against him, and relievers are judged on exactly that. And what changed? Well, it's home runs. He allowed seven of them in 85 innings. That's a .74 home runs per nine innings. For his career, he's allowed 69 in 552.1 innings, which is 1.12 per nine And the price, $2 million for 85 innings, is about $23,500 for every inning he threw. For a team that spends what the Yankees spend, that is absolutely nothing. And we saw a comment on this. NoelChef17 wrote on our channel, The answer is not to overpay. You just saw the two best teams in the MLB play. Play for the title with a bunch of no-names and up-and-comers. I think Blackburn is the kind of move that fits into that because he was not a big name at all before this season. In fact, he was a guy who Mets fans could not wait to get off their team. But still, some people are gonna look at Mets Blackburn and still think about all that year and every year before that when he wasn't as solid. Blackburn had a career ERA of 4.46 over 552.1 innings. In 2025, he had a 6.23 ERA over 39 innings and that was split between the Mets and the Yankees. A 1.59 feels like a huge outlier for him and the underlying numbers are not 1.59 numbers. His FIP is a 4.39. His strikeout rate is a 13.9. Seventh percentile on qualified pitchers, his walk rate is 11.4, 18th percentile. He's not missing bats, and we look at this stuff. His fastball velocity is in the 48th percentile, so right in the middle. His fastball spin is in the 6th percentile. His whiff rate is in the 30th percentile, and his chase rate is in the 26th. He is a pitch-to-contact guy, and he's 32 years old. But look at how hitters made contact against him. His barrel rate allowed is in the 82nd percentile. His expected ERA is in the 69th percentile. So he was not just lucky. He kept hitters from squaring up on him. He figured it out with pitching coach Matt Blake, who just got a three-year extension just a couple of weeks ago. And the Yankees have done this before. They did this with Luke Weaver. They did this with Michael King. We have seen this game before. The Yankees can figure career journeymen out and turn them into lethal weapons. And here's what this means. He strikes out 7.3 batters per 9 innings. And he walks 3.5. That's 69 strikeouts against 33 walks. And he's not blowing anyone away. He lives on weak contact and not many home runs. That works most of the time. It just matters are the home runs going to come back. That's what we have to ask ourselves. If the home runs go back to his career rate, his ERA does not stay near 1.59. It climbs. How far is the real question? And nobody can tell you that with a number. What I can tell you is the 4.39 FIP is still a perfectly useful reliever. And here's my honest read on this. He's probably not a 1.59 pitcher. That's probably going to be the best year of his career. He's closer to a 4 ERA arm who had a great year and a 4 ERA arm that gives you 85 flexible innings for $2 million. is still worth a lot more than $2 million. And Der Jaeger3321 said it well, saying even an average MLB pitcher is valuable at this price. The Yankees don't need him to repeat the 1.59. They just need him to be average. And based off Matt Blake's tenure with guys, again, like Michael King, like Luke Weaver, when they're healthy, they're a lot better than average. They figure it out. If the Yankees have done this multiple times before, it really does show that Paul Blackburn is more likely another example of that. As in comparison to someone who just had one outlier year and then on the same team is not going to be able to turn it around. I just don't see him going back to what he was on the Mets. I see him as a completely new pitcher. And the other two names mentioned here also do matter too. I mean, when we look at it, Tim Hill had a 4.60 ERA in 58.2 innings, but his FIP was a 3.48 and his His walk rate was at 3.1%, 97th percentile, he almost never walks anybody. Think about the roles, too. He'll throw us almost no walks, so he's safe when the game is close. Yarbrough misses more bats. Blackburn gets weak contact. Contact, excuse me. You don't need all three to be great. You need one or two to be good and a couple of them to be cheap. Brian Yarbrough had a 3.69 ERA over 63.1 innings and a 3.58 FIP and a 21.5% strikeout rate. And he allowed hard contact on only 18.2% of balls in play, Though that is still a small sample size. And there is one more difference. Tim Hill is a lefty specialist type and Yarbrough can pitch long relief or start. He's another swingman. Blackburn did a bit of everything. 62 games, two starts, 85 innings. That's why he fits as the first one. You certainly resign. And also, you know, we just look at the numbers. So on paper, you have two, the other two, they have better peripherals, but Blackburn gave you the most innings. He gave you the least amount of runs with the best ERA and the best WHIP. For one bullpen job, that is real value right there. And we saw a comment from Jim Green, 2080, called a version of this, quoting, for what seems to be low cost and low risk, I would go for both. And he is right. These deals are not either or. They are insurance for the guys who always seem to get hurt and bullpens deal with injuries. It's just what happens. The whole case depends on price. After a year like that, Blackburn will not ask for $2 million again, and I would not blame him. If he wants a few times that, it gets harder to say yes. At about last year's number, it's a no-brainer. Past that, you're paying for what you think he's going to be next year, and frankly, I would still give him a decent contract over two years. I mean, it's hard to believe that he's not going to keep at least some level of this pitching going. Also, if you need any more proof, Blackburn held up in October. I mean, he threw six innings, gave up one hit, and didn't allow a run. Yes, that's a small sample, but it is a pitcher the Yankees trusted when it counted, and guess what? They were right to trust him. And there's going to be pushback. D.J. Fletcher laughed, quote, Quote, another pitcher. And then we also saw Poop Breaking wrote, we need consistent hitters in the form of a third baseman and a catcher. They have the point. The Yankees need bats. But still, it doesn't mean they also don't need to replace some of their bullpen when they have five relievers going into free agency. And think about what a bullpen arm looks like this season and what they'll do over a season. 11 holds means 11 times he came in with the lead in late innings and handed it on. Plus one save. It's not glamorous work, but he's not the closer. That's David Bednar's job if the Yankees do decide to re-sign him, which I think they will. But it is work from Blackburn that keeps a manager from using his best arm every night and knowing he could use Blackburn wherever he needs him, which we should imagine Boone will do. There also is roster math. A reliever on a one-year deal costs nothing in flexibility. If he regresses, you move on next winter. If he repeats, even a part of this. You just got a high leverage arm for a rounding error. The asymmetry is one of the reasons why I like this deal. But here's the thing. Two million does not stop you from signing a bat. And even once we do multiply that a couple times around eight, $9 million, that also doesn't stop the Yankees from signing a bat. It's a rounding error to the next money the Yankees will spend on a third baseman or a catcher. Fixing the bullpen cheaply is how you free up the real money. And guys, speaking of numbers. We are at 13,079 subscribers at the last time I checked. We're now a little bit over 13,100. And guys, we are trying to get to 14K before the year ends. So if you do like how we break all these moves down, make sure to subscribe. And here's my verdict. You bring Blackburn back, not because he's a 1.59 ERA pitcher, because he probably won't stay that way, but bring him back because he's a flexible arm with good contact numbers who throws a lot of innings and will still be a cheap option. And it's... How you really have bullpen depth. And also, it's just retaining one of the best bullpen arms on your franchise. So the plan is, re-sign Blackburn at a price that makes sense for each side. Keep Tim Hill and Ryan Yarbrough in the conversation as depth. Honestly, re-sign at least one of them just for another lefty to have there. Then spend the real money where the fans keep telling us to, on the bats. That is a good winner. It's not a complicated one. And it's the kind of winner the Yankees think. We'll be able to change the direction of their franchise back to being World Series contenders. And here's what I'm going to be watching. First, his home runs. If he's given up one or more per nine innings, the ERA will be above four. There's no other way around it. Second, his walks. 33 and 85 innings because a low strikeout pitcher cannot afford them. If they both stay in line, this is a gem. If not, it was a great year. We say thanks for it. And we hope that he just continues to be solid enough that he sticks around the bullpen because the Yankees love him. And the comment of the day is from BaileyOwenForce12. Who wrote, we need to start spending wisely on better talent and agreed. But still, Blackburn's not gonna be the most expensive move ever and it's gonna be totally worth doing. So I do have a question. Should the Yankees bring back Paul Blackburn? What would you sign him to a contract to? Tell me in the comments down below. We got a ton of great videos on this channel. One should be popping up on the screen sometime around right now. So make sure to click onto that to continue watching. Like this video, subscribe, turn on post notifications. Have a great day, guys, and go Yankees. Also, I do just want to say very quickly, just because it was funny, I do these reads and I do them in separate takes, and I did accidentally one point call him Paul Blackburn, and it rhymed, and I laughed for three minutes, and I just want you to know that I do have a stupid sense of humor in case you thought so.