Shapiro vs. Garrity: Unpacking the PA Governor race and more

I want to bring in our political analyst, Bruce Gordon, now live in the newsroom. Today is the day, Bruce, midterm election day. We have a lot to talk about with perhaps, you know, this is the biggest race in the state right now, the governor's race. So if Governor Shapiro wins. What about presidential aspirations? Does it matter how big the victory here? Yeah, I think it does. Look, the idea of Shapiro winning tonight is something of a foregone conclusion, at least if you look at the polls. He's been up over state treasurer and Republican nominee Stacey Garrity by 20-plus points in most of the polling that we've seen. So the question is, if he wins, and again, that's very likely at this point, it would seem, what's the margin? Four years ago, he defeated the Republican Doug Mastriano by about 14 percentage points. This time around, if he were to grow that margin, it sends the right message for his future aspirations. It's the worst kept secret around in political circles that Josh Shapiro looks to be looking ahead for the 2028 presidential race. And obviously, the better you do in this re-election bid, where voters in your state, in a purple state like Pennsylvania, have had four years to take a look at you, and now by an even bigger margin, maybe, they send you back to office, that sends the right message for him as he heads toward that 28 race, potentially. So the Republican candidate here, Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacey Garrity, she has said that she hasn't gotten Republican establishment support. Is that fair? Yeah, look, the Republican establishment has not put much money into this race on behalf of Stacey Garrity. And while on one hand the candidate then can say, well, I'm only losing because... I didn't get the support from my party, but that's not a coincidence. The party takes a look at all of these races and says, where do we put our money where it can best be spent to the right conclusion and to the right result? And if they don't think the candidate in this case, Garrity, has a legitimate shot of winning the race, they simply don't put the money there. And that's how that works. It's not a question of. Fair or unfair, it's just, do we think this money will be put to good use? Can we win this race? And if they don't think so, they don't put the money in, and clearly they do not believe she has a real shot of winning this race. And so the money did not come, the support did not come, and this has been something of a sleepy affair, frankly, this campaign. There's not been a lot of fireworks. One debate, that was it. No real fireworks there. And again, if the polls are even remotely close, Shapiro should win this in a cakewalk. With that debate together, you and I, Bruce, and there was one firework moment during that one debate. So let's talk about the Pennsylvania General Assembly here. For the Pennsylvania Senate, Republicans have the majority by four seats. The Pennsylvania House Democrats have the majority by three seats. If the PA House flips to Republican, what does that mean for Governor Shapiro? Well, the polling suggests, and certainly with Josh Shapiro at the top of the ballot, he can help everyone below him if you're kind of getting in the mood to say, all right, I'm a fan of Shapiro's, now I'm going to vote Democrats all the way down the line. Democrats are likely, they're at least expected, based on the polling, to hold on to their control of the state house. If they pick up a net of three seats in the Senate... They then control the Senate as well. The good news is that Josh Shapiro then would have complete control of the government, right? The governor's mansion, plus the House, plus the Senate, all in Democratic control. And they can get some things done. Maybe actually get a budget done on time and not months late. That would be a nice change of pace for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. But it also puts added pressure on when you are in split government. The governor, Josh Shapiro, can say to the national audience, look what I get done, look what I do with split government, right? The Republicans control one of the chambers in the legislature, and yet I still get some things accomplished. Once you've got control of both houses... House and Senate. Now you've got to get some things actually done. You don't have the excuse anymore of saying, well, I'm having to deal with the opposing party controlling one of the chambers. You've got complete control. And if that happens, then there's an expectation you'll get some real meaningful things accomplished. And if you don't, it's going to be held against you again come 28, if, as expected, Shapiro announces he's running for president. So, Bruce, you don't think there's a possibility here that the Republicans could also win majority of the PA House? It's certainly possible, but I think, again, the idea here is that if you are that strongly a supporter of Josh Shapiro and the polling suggests he's going to win in a landslide, the likelihood is that you would want to support candidates who are in line with his policies and his platforms. So, yes, is it possible the Democrats could lose that narrow majority in the House? Absolutely. No question about it. And we don't want to talk anybody into or out of voting for whomever they want. Again, as you mentioned, a couple hours left in the polling. But the polls so far... Again, pre-election polls suggest Democrats will hang on to the House and may pick up the necessary seats in the Senate to gain complete control. Those polls have been wrong before. Yes, they have. And that's why we actually count the numbers and count the votes later tonight. Everyone nationally is talking about control of Congress, but here in Pennsylvania, control of the General Assembly is also one big headline we are following today as well. All right, Bruce Gordon, thank you. We will see you again in the 6 o'clock hour.