Election Day: Political analyst on key races to watch in Texas

Well, polls have been open about 90 minutes now, and there's a lot at stake from control of Congress to key state races. Joining us is Rice University political analyst Mark Jones to break it all down for us. Good morning to you. Welcome here to Houston's Morning Show. Well, thanks for having me on. Well, you probably just heard Mike talking about the rain chances at lunchtime. We already know we had record turnout. So a whole lot of people in this area have already voted. Do you think that will affect anything at all for people who had planned to go on their rush hour? I mean, during their lunch hour, then they don't want to sit out in the rain. Do you think that will affect people showing up today? Most of the studies that have been done on the issue of rain and turnouts suggest there really isn't that much of an effect. It may have a very modest effect. People plan, especially with Election Day vote centers where you can vote anywhere in your county, makes it more convenient. And therefore, it probably has less of an effect than if you were tied to a specific polling place like in the old days. And I tell you what, the U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Tallarico is truly getting national attention right now. Now, that seems to be the case in many states with these Senate. Senate races, really deciding and changing what states usually vote for. We are seeing different polls. We've seen a seven-point lead today for Tallarico in one poll. Others say it's a lot closer than that. What are you seeing at this hour? Well, much will depend on turnout. So one of the reasons why those polls differ in terms of their numbers is that they have different models for who is going to turn out. If Republican turnout is lackluster or weak today, then that's where you see that six-point Tallarico victory or something in the high numbers. If, on the other hand, Republicans turn out like they did, say, Say in 2022 or 2024, then you may be in the area where It looks like from what we're seeing at the polls, at least, that maybe Texans aren't considering just going a straight ticket because we aren't seeing that big of a difference between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa for governor. What are you thinking at this hour? What are people wanting with our governor right now and really voting for? Well, people, they're voting for US Senate, but also all of our statewide plural executive positions as governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller. We have seen that there is a subset of Republicans who are going to vote mostly for Republican candidates, with the exception of Ken Paxton at the top of the ticket for them. He's someone that they can't bring themselves to vote for. But we'll see how many of those people who hold that opinion At the end of the day, hold their nose and still vote for Paxton, how many leave it blank and how many vote for Tallarico. The more Republicans who vote for Tallarico, the much better his odds of winning are. And right now, I think most polls would suggest that Tallarico is the favorite to win today, not by a large margin and it's not a certainty, but he definitely is the favorite. Another race that we haven't talked all that much about it seems like is the Attorney General's race between Mays Middleton and Nathan Johnson. And what should people know about that if they haven't voted yet? Well, there you have, Ken Paxton's been in that position for 12 years. Before that, we had Greg Abbott. That attorney general is a very important position both for state politics, but also local politics and national politics. The Texas attorney general plays a major role in legislation and policies and judicial battles at the federal level across the country, especially if there is someone in DC who is of the opposite party. But they also play a major role in interpreting and enforcing state law, and in recent years have been very active in terms of pushing back against municipalities and counties that the attorney general believes are trying to do an end run around state law. And Harris County, Orlando Sanchez, Leticia Plummer, they are fighting for a county judge. How much do you think things like property taxes and flooding will sway voters to vote for one or the other? Well, in our surveys at the University of Houston Hobby School, we found that flooding is just not a priority issue for most Harris County residents. That tends to be when there is a flood, then it becomes a priority. And as the flood fades in the rearview mirror, it's less of a priority. But those property taxes, that's a major issue for many Harris County voters. Now, Harris County is a light blue county, and this is a good year for Democrats. So I'm not sure if the property tax is going to catch up to, say, Leslie Briones or Adrian Garcia, the two people who are on the ballot who voted for it. But it certainly is going to make it perhaps a little closer because- We see pretty much, not unanimous, but very strong opposition to the decision by the Democrat majority on commissioner's court to engage in that historic property tax increase. Well, I tell you what, we had a lot to get to in a short amount of time, Mark. So thank you for making all that happen and really helping us better understand everything. Mark Jones with Rice University. Great to see you as always. Well, thank you.