Bringing war back to Russia: Ukraine forces the Kremlin to peace
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Russia's strategic rear is gradually ceasing to be a safe space, separated from the war that the Kremlin has unleashed against Ukraine.
Thus, on the night of October 30, reports emerged of a strike on the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery in the Samara Region, whose design capacity is approximately 8.8 million tons of oil per year. Products include gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel.
Meanwhile, in the Bryansk region, a fire was reported at the Konservsushprod plant, which, among other things, produces individual food rations for the Russian armed forces and security agencies. Moscow is a different story. According to some reports from Russia, at least 862 drones were allegedly flying toward the Moscow region from the evening of October 29 to the morning of October 30. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that a total of 1,043 UAVs were shot down over Russia. Fires at industrial facilities, airport shutdowns, and air raid sirens in dozens of regions—this is not just a question of the effectiveness of individual strikes, but also a manifestation of a systemic war aimed at depleting the enemy's resources. Even without a confirmed hit to a strategic target, the enemy is forced to expend resources on defense, maintaining air defense readiness, and ensuring the functioning of its own infrastructure. In this way, Ukraine is gradually changing the economics of this war.
Previously, Russian leaders could count on the fact that the main destruction, economic losses, and everyday risks would remain on Ukrainian territory. Now, Russia is forced to consider the vulnerability of its own industrial centers, logistics hubs, and supply systems.
Importantly, this vulnerability has measurable economic consequences. According to an International Energy Agency estimate released in September, disruptions to Russia's oil refining industry have reduced gasoline production by approximately 20% compared to 2025 levels, and diesel fuel production by almost 30%.
During the first eight months of 2026, Russian oil refineries were hit on average once every three days. And these aren't just images of burning tanks.
This includes a reduction in production, repair costs, export restrictions and the need to reallocate resources. On the other hand, after the ceasefire on refineries, Russian companies increased oil refining volumes in the second half of October. This means that our strikes are capable of inflicting significant losses on the Russian economy, but pauses allow the enemy to restore some of its capacity.
Here, military strategy directly intersects with grand international politics. Russia continues to use force, and the issue of limiting Ukraine's capabilities remains a subject of international debate.
In my view, unilateral pauses, not accompanied by a verifiable cessation of Russian strikes, could give the Kremlin additional time to restore its military-economic potential.
The resilience of Ukraine's defense should deprive Russia of the prospect of a quick military victory. Economic exhaustion should raise the cost of continued hostilities. The sanctions regime should limit the ability to compensate for losses. And diplomatic pressure should create the conditions for ending the war with real security guarantees.
Without such a combination, even a large-scale long-range strike campaign could remain merely an additional loss factor, to which the Russian system will gradually adapt. After all, Russia has significant resources, is capable of restoring damaged facilities, reorganizing supply chains, and building up its counter-drone capabilities. And not every Ukrainian drone forces it to waste an expensive anti-aircraft missile.
Therefore, success should be assessed not by the number of air raid alerts announced, but by the actual reduction in the capabilities of the Russian military machine.
Ukraine has already demonstrated its ability to influence the military and economic potential of a significantly larger adversary over long distances. But we must clearly distinguish between two things: the ability to inflict significant blows on an adversary and the ability to compel them to change their strategic behavior. The latter requires time, a systematic approach, and the coordination of military, economic, and diplomatic instruments.
Russia is gradually losing its ability to wage war as if its own rear remains inviolable. But the true measure of success will not be another oil refinery fire, but rather the aggressor's reduced ability to finance, sustain, and continue the war. Peace will not automatically come with the destruction of a certain number of targets. Russia must be forced to change its strategic calculations.
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