The Dodgers Plan Just Got VERY Interesting...

400 million dollars. That's the number everyone keeps attaching to Tarek Skubal this winter. And a reporter who covers the Dodgers says LA will not pay it. Not like that. According to Katie Wu of The Athletic, the Dodgers will be fierce competitors for Tarek Skubal on one condition. He has to sign a deal that looks like Kyle Tucker's. And on the same day she said that, one more pitcher hit the market that nobody was ready for. Here is what she actually said. The Dodgers would be fierce competitors, but only if Scooble takes a deal similar to the structure and concept of Tucker's. Tucker's deal is four years at $240 million with an opt-out after 2027, and that is $60 million a year before the deferrals. Think about that. The record for a pitcher's average salary is Max Scherzer at $43.3 million. Tucker's number is more than $16 million above that. So the condition isn't about paying him less per year. It's about how long. Katie Wu said she can't see Andrew Freeman stomaching a 10-year, $400 million contract if it gets up that high. Notice what she said there, that That's her read. It's not a Dodgers statement for sure. Why? She gave three reasons. The CBA expires, the situation around owner Mark Walter, and Friedman wanting to keep the window open. Think of it like a mortgage. A four-year deal with a huge payment keeps you flexible. A 10-year deal is the Dodgers owning a house through whatever baseball looks like in 2036. And remember who's writing the checks. The Dodgers signed Tucker and Edwin Diaz last year, and they And they still didn't win a 3rd straight title. Spending isn't the problem. Spending on the right shape is the point. That's why this isn't a normal bidding war. Quick one before we go on. Should the Dodgers give Scooble a Tucker type deal or something along the lines of 10 years? Comment T or 10 down below, which raises one obvious question. Why would the Dodgers insist on that shape? It comes down to a clock. To understand the condition, you have to understand the clock. The current labor deal between the league and the players expires on December 1st, just about one month away. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic put it this way, the lockout is coming. From the day that this video goes up, that's 33 days time. No new deal in sight means the 2027 season could start on March 25th, or some owners reportedly say not at all. And here's the part that matters for Scooble. The owner's proposal is a hard cap of $245.3 million with a floor of $171.2 million. Now look at the Dodgers. For 2027 alone, they already have about $333 million committed to signed contracts before Scooble. That's $88 million over a cap that does not exist yet. And remember, it's still a proposal and it does have to be bargained with. So if you're Andrew Friedman, you see why you'd want a contract that can end. A four-year deal with an opt-out is a contract with an easy exit. Here's the thing about Tucker's deal. It opts out after 2027, the season that might not happen. That's a clause that's about a lot more than money, which makes the next question even harder. If the Dodgers are scared of a long-term deal, why would they keep Scooble at all? Here's what the Dodgers are actually paying for. Since the trade, Scooble made 10 starts for LA, he went 5-2 with a 2-61 ERA. He struck out 70 hitters in 62 innings, and he walked just 3.6% of batters this season in top 4% of the league. The year before, with Detroit, he had a 2.21 ERA and 241 strikeouts in 195 and a third innings. That's the guy somebody is going to pay, and he doesn't let anyone on. A .96 whip this season, in the top 6% of the league, that's fewer than one base runner an inning. And you can see why a team would stretch for that at all, but the real big question is only how far. And LA gave up a lot for the chance. Three prospects at the deadline, Zaire Hope, River Ryan, and Brady Smith. In the playoffs, he was also very good. Not unbeatable. In one game of the NLCS, he gave up two runs in five innings and the Dodgers lost two to one. And Andrew Friedman has not called them the priority out loud. He said the Dodgers will keep talking to Scott Forrest and the decision is Scooble and his families. So if Scooble says 10 years or nothing, who else is in this room that's available? Because there's another team in this story and it's the one who traded him. Scooble said, I'm pardoned my take. I would love to play my whole career in Detroit. I would love to. He said he hoped talks with the Tigers could be back up in November once the playoffs were done. And the Tigers traded him with a $32 million salary, a record for an arbitration player. Detroit also has three prospects that got back. The Dodgers are the team that took the ace, paid for it with three of their best young players. Scuba cannot get a qualifying offer, so there's no draft pick attached to him. Any team that wants him just has to pay. So the Dodgers don't just compete with the Tigers, they compete with the version of Scooble who wants to go home. Which brings us back to the condition. If the Dodgers want Scooble, they're bidding against their own feelings and against the other teams. So who else is bidding? Bleacher Report ranked Scooble's top 5 landing spots, and the Dodgers are second. First on the list is the Mets. Their rotation ranked 23rd in the league in ERA, and Steve Coleman has spent big before. Third is the Yankees, whose starters led the majors with a 3.30 ERA. Fourth is the Padres, and they just lost Michael King. That's a team whose new owners say they need to win the World Series, and Bleacher Report says signing Scooble would likely cost them more than $40 million a year. And ESPN's industry survey projected $8 years and $355 million for Scooble. Look how that compares to Yamamoto, who got 12 years and $325 million. Scooble's projection is $30 million more over four fewer years. That's the squeeze. Every team can offer length. The Dodgers want to offer a short-term deal with a monster salary, which is why Plan B matters. Thursday morning, we found out Michael King turned down his player option with the Padres. That wipes out the last two years and $58 million of his deal. He gets a $5 million buyout and walks into free agency. MLB recently ranked him the second best pitcher on this market, behind only Tarek Skubal. And look at the 2026 he just had, a 3.21 ERA over 185 innings and 32 starts. The year before, shoulder and knee injuries held him out to 15 starts, so there's a risk, but in October he puts up a .64 ERA in 3 playoff appearances. Also, he turns 32 in May, and that's the catch. Scooble's 29, a little bit younger. Put them side by side, Scooble this season, a 2.72 ERA in 158 and two-third innings. King, a 321 ERA in 185 innings. King gave you 26 more innings. Scooble gave you half a run or less per nine. That's the whole debate. The A's are the workhorse who cost a fraction of the price. The Dodgers rotation is already crowded on paper. Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Ohtani, and Sasaki are all under control for 2027. But two of those names are major injury risk, and one is already a full-time hitter. When you need an arm, you really need an arm. And here's the detail that matters. King got a qualifying offer from the Padres last winter, and a player could only get one. So signing him costs the Dodgers no draft picks. Which brings us to what he really changes. Before Thursday, the Dodgers' position was Scooble or a hole. Now it's Scooble or King. That does not mean they like King more. Dodgers beat says if the Dodgers can't keep Scooble, King is the one of those names that should be on their list. It means the Dodgers can say no to 10 years. A team with a credible plan B can hold its line. But don't miss the other side of it. King is also a plan B for every team that loses out on Scooble. The Dodgers are not going to be the only ones who have him as just a fallback. And if Scooble's agent figures that out, the leverage swing is back. The only team that gave him a real market is the one that can already be replaced by Michael King. So here's my take. The condition is real. The Dodgers want Tucker's deal with Scooble's name on it. And as of Thursday, they can mean it. If Scooble ends up on a five or six year deal, that gets an AAV record for sure. With an opt out, everyone's going to get something. That's my read so far right now, but that could be an issue for the Dodgers. So here's the way I'm going to be watching this. First, November, when Scooble says that he has his hopes on the Tigers, that could very well pick back up soon. Second, this is a scary one, December 1st, when that labor deal expires, the Dodgers' whole math gets even harder. And number three, whether Friedman ever says it out loud that Scooble is the priority, because right now, the only person who said the Dodgers will pay him is a reporter on the radio. So who do you want if it isn't a talker deal, Scooble or King? Tell me in the comments below.