Brad Goodwill provides a market overview for the start of the week, noting a general build-up of technical confidence. He highlights the impact of diverging central bank interest rate expectations on currency pairs and advises a cautious, observational approach for Monday ahead of a busy week of CPI data and central bank announcements.
Hi there, traders. This is Brad Goodwill
with today's Trading Action. All right. Now,
as you come into your charts to start the week,
having a look across the board now,
we've got some great sort of movement, right?
We're building confidence in actually the technical
side of things. If you're looking at dollar Swiss and the dollar index,
like a mirror image
and the euro, just the opposite, but that looks really good.
Then you've got Sterling, Aussie,
kiwi and the cad all going up right now
for those new traders that's dollar cad going down
that means cad's going up so what's going
on euro isn't doing anything right well this is a lot to
do with the interest rate perspective of what
is out there right the ecb no change of rates the
bank of england look like they're hiking rba it's
a line ball decision 56.4 percent at this stage
Bank of Canada hiking, RBNZ hiking, right?
So the Euro's been left behind and that's pretty
obvious on the crosses. Okay.
So now to start the week, everything's pretty good. I just had
to look through the sort of various news
and there isn't a lot going on, which is actually
really good, right?
In a week where you have big CPI numbers and everything else, well,
you can get lost in the noise, right? Okay.
So Trump's out there trying to do his best to get
some votes. And that is actually where,
why things are starting to look a little bit clearer,
right? US yields are a little bit lower, right?
The prices are up, which means the yields are
slightly down. It doesn't sort of line up
with what's happening in the equity indices. They're
slightly up. And that's why you've got a bit
of a mixed bag here on the currencies, right? So
the dollar, the market's not fully in sync just at this point.
So what I'll be doing is like most
Mondays, just watching. Have a look.
Get a hold of your charts. Start working out where the action
is because that's what you want to do.
Avoid putting on trades that are not worthy of your
cash. Today, we've got a few bits and pieces coming out of the EU,
the IFO numbers. Now,
these are a respected number,
but it's not like a number that actually really moves the market
aggressively. It's more like, oh, there's the numbers.
How does that fit in with everything
else. So that could be,
it's just a little bit of a building block around that. We've got some
bill auctions in the US and that's pretty much it.
So there's not a lot to get excited about
and this is good. Have the day off, have a look at the markets.
As I said, scroll through your
calendar and we'll be covering
this in tomorrow's weekly strategy session, trying to work out
exactly where the key points are that we need
to be focusing on the market. I mean, obviously,
CPI numbers for Australia is important.
We've got central banks coming out of our ears.
We'll see how they all sort of behave.
You've got the Fed, Bank of Canada, RBNZ, ECB,
and the BOJ, right? It's a smorgasbord of central banks, right?
And that's why those
interest rate expectations are important.
But that's where we are. It's just a normal,
nice, cruisy day. That's what we like to see for a Monday.
Equity indices still under a little bit
of pressure. Gold is getting absolutely drilled,
as is silver's going with it. And so is other
cryptos, right? Bitcoin there also live.
So that's what I will be doing. Monday, have a look. See
what's going on, see how things are lining up,
check out the live signals, see where the sort
of general trends are, right?
And as I said, there's a bit of discombobulation there on the
markets. So no need to rush in this time of the week, right?
And just looking at the majors here,
nothing's really lining up just at the moment.
But I'll tell you what, you look at the Euro
crosses, there's going to be a lot of down activity here, right?
So you can sort of see
On the short-term perspective, quite a lot of downs.
We're starting to get things lining up.
Last week it was very active.
We'll see how it plays out this week.
As I said, the webinar calendar also, we have moved the timing
of all the events to the start of the UK session.
It's going to be beneficial for all Australasian traders
as well as the European traders, North American traders,
where you'll be able to join in at some point.
Okay, so that's where we are.
tomorrow's weekly strategy session we're going
to run through um you know the key parts of the week
what we should be looking for what we shouldn't
and let's piece it together you know with so many
different central banks um in the firing line it
is you know a little bit sort of exciting it's
exciting stuff with all the moves sort of preempted
um to be hikes you know what and largely already
factored in it's going to come down to their guidance
and hopefully i can walk you through
that. All right, guys, that's it for me. All the best. Cheerio.