Democrats THOUGHT Michigan, Minnesota, and New York Were Safe… Then the Early Vote Numbers Came In!

Folks, the blue wave is dead. The blue wave is dead. Time of death, early voting. Cause, Republicans actually showing up. The networks are planning a small, private funeral. No cameras, which for them is a first. Now, for months, NBC and CNN promised a Democrat tsunami. Iowa, blue. Kansas, blue. Texas, blue. Mississippi, please sit down. Blue. Mississippi, guys. Mississippi, blue. Then they said it out loud on television into microphones that were on. Now NBC is backing away from its Senate prediction slowly, very slowly. Kind of like the way that you kind of back away from a raccoon in your garage. Oh, and CNN rolled out its big, beautiful touchscreen map to reveal Democrat leads of half a point in states Trump won by double digits. Half a point, guys. this is not a lead. This is a rounding error and a nice blazer. So then CNN brought in Frank Luntz, a man who has spent decades reading voters' minds for money, and not exactly Trump's biggest fan, by the way. And he admitted on air that the polls can't find Trump voters. They cannot find Trump voters. They cannot find them, period. They're not in witness protection, Frank. They're at work. They have jobs. Meanwhile, the early voting is coming in. Republicans are crushing it in Arizona, Texas, and Florida on Democrats' own home turf. This is like losing a home game to a team that took the bus. Abdul El-Sayed is clinging to a Michigan lead that already evaporated once this summer. Michigan is wobbling. Kathy Hochul just keeps checking her rearview mirror for Bruce Blakeman. And Vivek Ramaswamy, he's polling Ohio, mostly in spite of himself. And Oregon, Oregon, has Christine Drazan tied with Tina Kotek. Portland is thinking about voting Republican. Now today, we're going to go ahead and name every name and connect every dot that the networks hoped you would skip. But first, of course, if you know someone who needs Medicare guidance or maybe is turning 65 years old, Chapter offers completely free Medicare help. Free? Did I mention that it was free? Oh yes, it is completely free. Zero pressure. They're saving the average senior about $1,100 a year. I left their phone number in the description down below as well as their link, 909-563-8279. The average senior is saving about $1,100 a year. I'm being told that the best time to call right now is over the weekend. If you're new here, guys, hit subscribe. It is the only poll in America with a perfect track record. If this video delivers, it will. I'll just go ahead and tell you right now, hit the like button on the way out. Totally appreciate think of it as early voting for the good guys. All right, picture August, a cable news studio, bright lights, an anchor at a giant touchscreen map, painting it blue like a kid with a brand new crayon. Iowa, blue. Kansas, blue. Alaska, why not? Blue, right? So the blue tsunami was coming, folks. They had graphics. They had music. They had the dramatic slow zoom. They had everything that they needed. Now, if we fast forward to today, same studio, same anchor, same map, except now NBC is telling its own viewers the Democrats taking the Senate. Maybe not. We've got NBC's Steve Kornacki right here at his big board, taking a closer look at where things stand with the Senate. Just 15 days to go, Steve. Here is the map. And Democrats, if they want to get control of the Senate, have to net four new seats. Yeah, keyword their net. They need to pick up at least four of the red seats, the Republican-held seats that they're targeting here. Some of these seats, by the way, in very pro-Trump states over the last decade. But I say at least four because there are also a couple of Democratic-held seats here Republicans think they can flip. And if Republicans flip those, it really complicates the math for Democrats. Let's start with those red states that Democrats are trying to pick up and look at some of these poll numbers, which look surprisingly tight. I mean, you see the numbers with Trump's approval rating declining and you hear the chatter of Democrats saying blue wave, Republicans fearing it. This is why this is what the polls are showing. These are the races that Democrats are targeting. Republican held seats in the polls to some degree here have the Democrats ahead in all of them. Now, one of them here, North Carolina, you see kind of an outlier. That's a big lead there for the Democrat. Even Republicans, when you look at how they're spending their resources, they seem to be moving away from North Carolina. But it is close everywhere else. You know, look, one point two, one point one, zero point five. So they are leads for Democrats, but they are tenuous as well. I mean, these are states that Trump won by double digits two years ago. And if there's anything about the Trump era that we know, it's that polling often undercounts these Republican Trump voters. That's right. I mean, look, Republicans in the Trump era have gotten used to seeing polls like this in states like this and saying, got them just where we want them. Because we've seen it in places. Ohio, Iowa come to mind. Even you could go back. There was a Senate race in Kansas in 2020. Polls looked really promising for the Democrats. Republican ended up winning by double digits. So that Trump vote's been missed before, doesn't always show up. A lot of theories why. But if that happens again, these numbers can change in a hurry. What also is interesting is you talked about the blue states. Let's go back to these are Democratic seats that the Democrats must hold on to. And they're showing pretty tight races as well. I mean, check this out. Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee. He leads in the polls basically by about three points. Very close right there. And the thing to keep in mind, El-Sayed, when he won the Democratic primary this summer, Polls had him up by about 10 points or so. He ended up winning by a fraction of a point. The polls overstated his support in the primary. If that happens again here, that three could disappear. And an eye on blue Minnesota. Minnesota, of all places. We're going to have an interesting election night, no matter what happens. Steve, you'll be there. Thank you so much. Hey, thanks for watching. Don't forget, you can catch The Today Show every morning on NBC or take today when you're on the go. just follow the Today Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen. They're not so sure that they were right about that one. Not so sure. After months of total certainty. Now, here's what they missed. The primaries already told us that MAGA voters never went to sleep. They showed up all summer. The networks just weren't looking. They were too busy picking out fonts for the victory banner. And so now the anchor is quietly erasing the blue one state at a time, hoping nobody notices. Well, we noticed. The tsunami turned out to be a little puddle with a publicist. And if you're tired of finding out the truth three weeks after the networks quietly erased it, there's a fix, guys. It's called the Ron Yates Report. Our free newsletter, no touchscreen map, no dramatic music, no anchor walking it back in October, just the stories that matter straight to your inbox before the spin crew finishes their coffee. So think of it as the only forecast that never needs an eraser. So the link to join is free in the description down below. So now let's go ahead and flip the channel to CNN, shall we? Because CNN's map is completely sweating. Up on the big screen, Democrat leads in states that President Trump won by double digits two years ago. Now think about that. A 0.5 lead? This is about the width of a human hair. And CNN, yeah, CNN is using it to hold up an entire election forecast. This is not a foundation. This is a toothpick under a piano. And here's the best part, guys. CNN's own analyst said it out loud. He said Republicans see polls like this and they're basically saying, yeah, got them right where we want them, on CNN with the cameras rolling, okay? Now, then he went ahead and gave the history lesson. Ohio, it looked close, wasn't. Iowa looked close, wasn't. Kansas, the 2020 Senate race, the polls were in love with the Democrat. Roses, candlelight, the whole thing. The Republican won by double digits. So when CNN puts a half a point lead on the screen and calls it good news for Democrats, this is not a forecast. This is a hostage video. That we do in fact see a 2026 Senate map if the polls underestimate Republicans by two to four points. Well, remember all that blue that was on the map before? All that blue went bye-bye see you later adios amigos sayonara those democratic chances and those democratic hopes down there into Lake Erie look at this now what we're dealing with if in fact the polls underestimate the republicans is 53 republican senate seats compared to 47 republican seats maine that stays red how about a flip in michigan where Abdul Assaid very neck and neck in the polls with Mike Rogers. Ohio stays red. Iowa stays red. Alaska stays red. Now, I will note, I will note that even in this scenario, right, you still get a situation where North Carolina stays blue and Georgia stays blue. But Texas goes red. See you later. Ken Paxton gets elected to the United States Senate. No James Tallarica. So a very clear Republican win in the Senate if the polls are underestimating the Republicans, like perhaps they did in 2020, like they did in 2016, so on, so forth. And on the House side, what about this? On the House side, by the way, getting a little schvitz here. I think I'm going to have to have a drink in a second. If the polls undershot the Republicans by greater than three points, well, that's all you need. That's all you need for Republicans in order for them to actually probably hold on to the U.S. House of Representatives. They would likely win 218 plus House seats. And keep in mind, this polling error absolutely has happened before. Therefore, when we talk about the race being within the margin of error, the House of Representatives, even if Democrats are favored, it is still within the margin of error that Republicans can win if we see polling misses like we have before. So then CNN brought in a special guest. You may ever heard of him? Frank Luntz. Yeah, pollster, focus group king, a man who has made millions of dollars telling America what America thinks. Not exactly a Trump fan, by the way. And Frank did something that you never see on cable news. He admitted he was wrong. He got 2016 wrong. He trusted the exit polls. Look, the New York Times gave Hillary Clinton about an 85% chance. Picture that number glowing on the screen the night before. Then the confetti fell in the wrong building. So what happened Frank, what do you think the polls may be missing do you think they're they're undersampling the kind of voter that Trump usually brings out sort of non-engaged voters that that may not respond to a phone call from a pollster we know that they don't respond respond to phone calls we know that in the exit polling back in 2016 and i say this publicly because i want people to hear this you know i teach at West Point i cannot lie cheat or steal the cadets can't i can't I got 2016 wrong. I believed in the exit polls. Trump voters walked away, refused to participate because they thought that it was against them. They thought that the polls were all biased. And that's what Republicans are being told right now. Don't believe the polls. They're not accurate. Well, they may be. We're about to find out. But I'm still skeptical. In the end, Republicans are less likely to participate. They're less likely to believe the polls are happening. But I'm most interested in turnout. in the end, and there are ways to measure it, and I'm not convinced that they're doing it, that they're polling how the electorate overall feels and not polling the people actually going to participate. But in the end, who the hell cares? How do you get around that, though? That's why you have to do focus groups. That's why you have to do one-on-one interviews. I can tell by looking at you if you're going to participate or not. And these are people who are counted in the polls, but I know they're not going to vote. They sit like this. Their hands are folded. And they don't really care, and they're looking down and looking around because they're not engaged, they're not involved. And turnout determines everything. And I ask the viewers, pay attention to how they've asked the questions about turnout. It's not whether you say you're going to vote or not, because people lie. How interested are you in the election, number one? Number two is how often do you collect election news, political news? And number three, how often do you talk politics to your friends and neighbors? those are three essential questions in determining turnout. I hate to say this, but a lot of polls don't ask it. He said Trump voters walked away. They refused to take the polls because they figured, well, the polls were against them. Shocking. People don't like talking to folks who mock them for a living. Who knew, right? So then, of course, the bombshell. Three questions that predict who votes. How interested are you? How often do you follow the news? How often do you talk politics with your neighbors? Now, most polls don't even ask them. The king of the focus group just admitted his focus is blurry. Now, think of the one person that you know who has never been polled in their life and has a lot of opinions. You already know exactly who I mean. Go ahead and send this video to them right now. They're about to find out they're the reason CNN cannot sleep. Now, have you ever been polled? I mean, ever in your life, guys? Like most people that you know, most people you know, they're probably going to say no, not once, not ever, because the pollster calls at 2 p.m. on a Tuesday afternoon. Now, let me ask you this. Who's home at 2 p.m. on a Tuesday? Not the welder, not the nurse, not the guy who's hauling freight across Texas, not he's out in the streets working. His phone buzzes with a polling text and he does the reasonable thing. Delete. Some folks keep quiet. They've learned that saying who you vote for can get you a lecture at Thanksgiving. And here's what CNN cannot see. Lifelong Democrats quietly voting red. That's right, guys. Independents going straight ticket. New citizens casting their first ballot for Trump's party. Red ballots in Los Angeles. Los Angeles, guys. Red ballots. Exactly. Now, Ronald Reagan, he saw this movie. The press predicted doom. Then a quiet majority showed up. Now, picture an 18-year-old. First ID checks the register to vote box, walks in to vote. Poll workers clap. Asked how it feels. Excited. No pollster has his number. Well, they're going to meet him on November 3rd. So here's something you really need to understand. Early voting is the Democrats' house. Their home field advantage. Their mom's basement. This is where they're supposed to run up the score before Republicans can even find their car keys. So let's go ahead and check the scoreboard, shall we? Arizona. Republicans are up big. Texas, up big. Oregon, up big. Oregon, guys. Now, Michigan, Florida, Nevada, Maine, and Ohio, Republicans matching or beating their own targets. Florida alone has about 200,000 early voters already. And Republicans lead. In a voting method Republicans supposedly don't trust, fetch the smelling salts. Even in Iowa, where Democrats got a head start, Republicans were chewing through that lead like it was a farmer through a pork chop. And Texas, day one, busy lines. Picture it. Pickup trucks wrapped around the parking lot at 7 a.m. Folks who were voting for Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott before their coffee got cold. Republicans showing up early, in person, on purpose. Somebody check on the anchors, guys. They need a minute. Now, let's go north. We got to go north. Of course we're going to go north. Where the blue walls are supposed to be made of concrete. Michigan Democrat Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed leads by about three points. Three. I know it sounds fine, right? But here's the problem. This summer, the polls had him up by about 10 in his primary. He won by a fraction of a point. The polls promised him a steak dinner. He ended up getting a cracker. So if the polls are overstating him again, and they've already done it once already, that three-point cushion disappears faster than a Lions lead in the fourth quarter. Oh, and then, of course, there's Minnesota, guys. Minnesota, the state Democrats treat like a family heirloom, locked in a glass case, do not touch. Well, somebody touched it. CNN just put it on the watch list. Michelle Tafoya and Lisa Demuth are on the ballot, and Minnesotans are lining up to vote in person. Now, picture a safe blue sign on Minneapolis lawn. Now, picture the wind picking up. All right, deep breath, guys. Let's take a deep breath because this one actually sounds made up. Oregon, the land of rain and bike lanes and $14 oat milk lattes. A state Republicans have not won for governor since 1982. And right now, Republican Christine Drazan is in a dead heat with Governor Tina Kotek. 58% of Oregonians, they're saying that their state is on the wrong track. 58%, guys, this is not a moving truck. Now, Drazan laid it out. Four years ago, Oregon was a top 20 economy. But under Kotek, it dropped into the bottom eight. 25,000 jobs gone in a single year. Schools are sliding. It's horrible. Oh, and Kotek's response? We're making progress. Progress? Like a car making progress backwards down a hill? Picture it. Rain on a Portland sidewalk, for lease signs in every other window. And Christine Drazan knocking on doors, asking one simple question. Is this working? I mean, you got to hand it to Tina Kotek. It takes real talent to make Oregon look at a Republican Senator, this is an exciting moment for this state, which I have to say it's one of the most beautiful states in the United States. I always say no city or state left behind people right off the Pacific Northwest. They should not. You're not. Why should people be hopeful that change is coming to Oregon? So everything that you just outlined, Oregonians have lived with it for far too long. But under Tina Kotek's leadership, it's all gotten so bad. She took a top 20 economy. Oregon was a top 20 economy just four years ago, and she drop kicked it into the bottom eight in four years. We've lost twenty five thousand jobs in a single year here. As you mentioned schools are on the decline and she keeps saying that we're making progress but it's all been in the wrong direction so we're talking to Oregonians every single day this race is about getting in living rooms and in doorsteps and talking to people everywhere across the state in every corner and saying is this working because if it's not this is our opportunity to turn it around it's a midterm election which means the people that show up get to decide and I'm asking Oregonians, I don't care what your party affiliation is. If you believe this is not good enough for you and your family, this is our chance to deliver real results for the people of this state. And I need people to turn out to get this done. Now, if we hop on a plane, let's go on, let's head on over to New York. That's right, guys. New York, a state Democrats think of as a 60-40 lock, basically a blue vending machine. Put it in a ballot, get a Democrat. Except Bruce Blakeman is creeping up on Kathy Hochul closer and closer. And Kathy Hochul should know this feeling. Lee Zeldin got within 300,000 votes of her in 2022. In New York, guys, drive through upstate New York right now, and the yard signs tell a completely, a very different story than the polls do. Even if Bruce Blakeman comes up short, a strong night drags Republican House candidates across the finish line. This is how you keep the house. And so now, Ohio, Vivek Ramaswamy leads Amy Acton 51.4 to 48.6, closer than it should be. Why? Well, Vivek Ramaswamy said American culture celebrates the jock over the valedictorian to a state that worships Ohio state football. That's a bold move, sir. Oh, and it's putting pressure on Senator John Husted down the ballot. But don't panic, guys. Ohio isn't turning blue. It's just a little annoyed. Now, real talk for a second. Gas prices are high, right? I mean, I don't know what gas prices are in your state, but they're high in my state. The conflict with Iran is still dragging on. A fight Iran has been picking with America since 1979. And one, President Trump is working tirelessly to end. And a lot of working families are feeling their wallets getting a little thinner this year. Some folks are thinking about sitting this one out. Here's the thing, guys. Turnout is expected to be lower than 2024, lower than 2022, so every vote counts more. Even Frank Luntz said it. Turnout determines everything. Picture election day. An empty recliner, remote on the armrest. That recliner has never won a single election. You want to see where a country ends up when people stop showing up. Just look at France. Look at the UK. Look at Canada. So here's a playbook, guys. Vote early. Vote in person. Bring your ID. Bring somebody with you. Send your I voted sticker to five different friends. High gas prices are not a reason to stay home. They're a reason to drive. Now, let's go ahead and play this out all the way out, guys. Let's just say Democrats somehow grab the House. What happens? Well, same thing that always happens. Investigations, hearings impeachment number honestly i lost count who's counting at this point and so president donald trump is sitting in the white house with a veto pen their bills go in nothing comes out kind of like a paper shredder with a flag pin the country is tired of the circus when the war ends gas comes down and rates start falling who gets the credit trump and whoever carries the torch in 2028 whether it's jd vance or marco rubio or both i'm just saying let's not settle guys winning is a whole lot better, way better. Senate 53, House 223. That's the number folks are talking about right now. And one more thing, guys. A lot of Americans are praying for this country right now. Keep praying and then get in the car and drive to the polls. Get in the truck, whatever you drive. You guys remember the 18-year-old? You know the one who said excited? Nobody polled him. He showed up anyway. Be him on Tuesday, November 3rd. Vote like you're losing. Now, here's where we are today, guys. The blue tsunami is a puddle, NBC is backpedaling, CNN's leads are thinner than a hair, and the voters the polls can't find are already standing in line. CNN missed it, the machine tried to bury it, and you found it right here. Now, think of the one person in your life, a family member, a neighbor, a friend, who's been feeling like their vote doesn't matter. Go ahead and send them this video, not to scare them, to remind them that they're not alone and that the fight is not over. If today delivered what we promised, and I believe it did, do me one thing on the way out, hit the like button, one second, zero dollars. Think of it as early voting for the video. And if you haven't subscribed yet, what are you waiting for? We'll see you on the next one, because trust me, there's a lot more coming before November 3rd.