New poll out in Texas races | Dallas News Live

More than two million Texans have already voted and guess what? There's another poll. A new Fox News poll shows that the Senate race is tied at 49 percent. Last month, James Tallarico was up two points, but that was still within the margin of error. Fox News poll also shows Governor Abbott up five percent over Gina Hinojosa, 52 percent to 47 percent. Joining me, TCU political science professor Keith Gaddy. Keith, the Fox News poll shows 28% of, quote, non-MAGA Republicans say that they are willing to vote for James Tallarico. Is this his only path to victory, Republicans voting for him? It is his best path. I mean, no Democrat has won statewide in Texas in three decades, and that means you've got to pull from Republican voters for a Democrat to win. Okay, and so we know that there have been poll upon poll upon polls, but all of them seem to show that it's a tight race. What does that say to you? It says it's a tight race. Now, Stephen, first of all, it's good to finally connect with you. I used to be a professional pollster years ago, and every number is a snapshot, but the snapshots, they keep looking the same. It's a tight race. No matter who we talk to, we get the same tight race. So it's about mobilizing people. There's very little information to put in the environment, very little news to put out there, right? It's a matter of just getting people to the vote. Yeah, and some people in recent years have been a little critical of polling saying that they have been off and every pollster that I talk to now they make sure to say hey I want you to know this is a snapshot in time this does not mean that it'll be 49 percent to whatever on election day now Beto O'Rourke has been close in polls but lost Colin Allred was close in polls and that result was really not close so what should people know when they are looking at these polls before and after they go ahead and cast their ballot? I think you ought to look at these as just being a best guess at what might happen. It's a close race. It's a close race. It can go one way or the other. What polls do is they do tell you why people make the choices they make, but we rarely get to that point. So we keep reporting the horse race, but we really ought to step back from it and ask the why. So your observation about non-MAGA Republicans, that's incredibly valuable polling. It tells us where Tallarico has to go to get his vote and Tallarico has been you know saying that you know i'm a candidate for everyone of course politicians are going to say what they need to say to get votes done with all of these commercials that have been going on how much of it actually sways people's decision in your opinion i don't think it sways deciding that much i think it reinforces whatever prejudice or bias you have on the left or the right it just reaffirms the worst of the other guy Most voters in this election are going to be kitchen table voters. They're going to sit there at the kitchen table, look at economics, look at their circumstance, and ask the question, how should I vote? And if you're generally okay with how your kitchen table is, you rely on other reasons to choose. If your kitchen table is uncomfortable, if it's tight, then you start to blame the incumbent party. There was a new approval rating put out by the president today as well, for the president, I should say. Showing that he has the lowest approval rating since being president. How much of that factors into people on the local level going to vote for their local officials if they're upset about the leadership at the top? It potentially can filter in. Donald Trump's done a very good job of insinuating himself into every aspect of Republican politics. And he's openly campaigned saying this election's about me. Voters have to make that choice. Is this election about him? But midterm elections are often referendums on presidents, and if a president's doing badly at midterm like Mr. Trump, you expect his party to not do so well at the polls. In fact, it's surprising that polling and forecasts and models of change don't show the Republicans doing worse, it really is something. Keith, President Trump is coming back to Texas for a fourth time in a matter of months next Tuesday, which is a week from Election Day. I'm told by RNC officials that he's going to be in Lubbock and in Waco. Lubbock and Waco are red territory, right? Why would the president be coming back to Texas in those cities? Well, they've been sending this president to places where he gets friendly crowds. So he was in rural red Oklahoma recently. He was in Alabama. You don't see, Texas is really the only swing state where he's showing up. And when he shows up here, he's showing up in these deep red conservative evangelical areas like Waco and Lubbock. So you send him there in part because that's where he's gonna be comfortable. But it may also be the case that some Republicans around the country are simply asking the White House political office to keep the president away. And my last question to you, Keith, more than 2 million Texans have already voted. Are some people being a little too running with these numbers, indicating one way or the other? Should we tamp down a little? Everyone I've talked to said tamp down. What's your opinion? I'd say tamp down and report. But I would note that consistently the enthusiasm gap has run towards Democrats, even in Texas. So you see an increase in early voting, you think that's the enthusiasm vote. And there's a habit among Democratic voters and early voting across the country to do what's called banking the vote. They get out there, they get the vote cast, they get it done. So enthusiastic voters wanted to get in and vote. But this means you can counter mobilize in the other direction. But I mean, I voted on Tuesday in Fort Worth, walked in and out in eight minutes from parking downtown to voting to going back out. The fact that 10% of Texas voters have already voted is really remarkable. And it indicates we should have high turnout overall. But both sides are mobilizing. All right, Keith Gaddy from TCU. Thanks for finally connecting. Thanks for your time. Look forward to it, Steve. Take care. All right.