Strategy Insights Ep107:ECOND ISLAND CHAIN STRATEGY:U.S.Think Tank:Abandoning the First Island Chain

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Professor Ming's Strategic Insights. A few days ago, an American think tank called Defense Priorities released a new report entitled A Second Island Chain Strategy for Asia. In this report, they urged the American government to shift their strategic gravity from the so-called fragile first island chain to the second island chain, meaning they're going to abandon their allies in the first island chain. Secondly, they suggest that the United States' strategic ambiguity policy toward Taiwan has been outdated and it's hard to uphold. They suggest that the government shift to a non-intervention policy. So personally, I have a very strong reservation about their views. And I think if these policies are implemented as they suggested, it will be very, very counterproductive Why is that? Let's take a closer look at their main arguments. The United States has only two core interests in Asia. First one goes like this, to defend American homeland from direct threat. And secondly, to guarantee that the United States has access to the key economic markets and main maritime trade routes. And the report continues to argue that in order to achieve those goals, the United States has to greatly cut down its security commitment to the countries in the region. To South Korea, it suggests that the United States has to terminate a so-called mutual defense pact and to withdraw the nuclear umbrella they promised to South Korea and to withdraw all the ground troops from South Korea. And to the Philippines, they suggest that the United States should reduce its commitment to the Philippines, to expel the disputed South China Sea islands from their commitment, and also including the Palawan Island, and to withdraw all the type of missiles deployed in the Philippines in order to avoid any conflict with mainland China. And to Japan, in addition to terminate the so-called security pact with Japan as late as 2035, the United States should withdraw its commitment to defend the so-called Senkaku Island for Japan. So in short, the United States should withdraw all the way from the first island chain to the second island chain. And of course, Taiwan is the biggest issue contained in this report. It suggests that first, the United States' long-term policy toward Taiwan, the so-called strategic ambiguity policy toward Taiwan, is getting more and more difficult to uphold for the United States, and the United States should shift it into a non-intervention policy, and clearly stated or clearly proclaimed that should there be a military conflict in the Taiwan area or in the Taiwan Strait area, the United States should never intervene. This is what they call a non-intervention policy for Taiwan. And the report goes on to argue that should Taiwan be unified by mainland China, and the damage to the United States' national interest is still controllable. Yes, the supply of high-end chips could be curbed in the short term, but because the United States has the so-called intellectual property right in the related area, the United States should be able to increase its domestic capability to produce all those chips and diversify its supply chain. Although I'm highly suspicious about these arguments, but that's what they say in the report. On the other hand, if the United States goes to war with Communist China over Taiwan, the United States will suffer great loss, including tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of casualties of men and women soldiers or military people, and lots of dozens or even hundreds of airplanes and warships and so on and so forth, not to mention the possibility of facing an escalated nuclear war against China, and tens of thousands or even tens of billions of loss of economic benefits all over the world. So they suggest that the United States should withdraw all the military personnel deployed in Taiwan and terminate their unofficial commitment to defend Taiwan completely. So that's a new version of the abandoning Taiwan theory. As I suggested at the very beginning, should the United States adopt these policy suggestions, that means that it is a complete withdrawal from the Asia-Pacific region and giving up the entire Asia-Pacific region to Communist China, and Communist China can take it up or take it over without any effort, and not only give the status of hegemon of the area to mainland China, it will also give us power and the strength to challenge the United States globally. It's equivalent to capitulate to the Soviet Union during the Cold War period, and it's almost like President Carter's policy toward the Soviet Union. That's why President Carter was defeated by Reagan in the presidential campaign when Reagan advocates peace through strength. Let me go back to the argument of abandoning Taiwan, or so-called the abandonment of Taiwan theory. We all know Taiwan's value to the international politics, and its value to the entire international economic system. Taiwan is not only one of the main trading partners to the leading economies. Some people may argue that, yes, mainland China is a great trading partner, and it has a much bigger trading volume than that of Taiwan's. But let's compare the content of the trade between mainland China and Taiwan. Yes, mainland China has a big quantity of trade, but Taiwan has a good quality. So if you want to compare the two, it will be kind of difficult for some countries. And that's the first point. Secondly, Taiwan occupies a very important strategic position. It not only locates at the center of the first island chain, and to the north, it could help out Japan or South Korea should it get into trouble. And to the south, it can offer aid to the Philippines and Indonesia, and even to Australia. It's located at the strategic center of the first island chain. Secondly, as we mentioned before, there's at least 48 percent of the tankers navigating through the Taiwan Strait on a daily basis. And thirdly, Taiwan is holding the choke point of the first island chain. It checks Communist China's navy from entering into the Pacific Ocean. And in terms of the value system, Taiwan holds the same value system as the leading countries, democracy, human rights, rule of law, and so on and so forth. So which makes Taiwan the most important outpost for fighting communism or fighting tyranny in Asia? And lastly, I think I don't have to mention how important Taiwan's semiconductor industry is to the entire world economy. And why do I say this report is self-contradictory? Remember, they said the first purpose for this strategic change is to defend the United States' homeland from a direct threat. But if the United States withdraw from Asia completely, that means China, mainland China, can directly threaten the United States' homeland much more easily. And secondly, they argue that they want to make sure the United States has access to the key economic markets and to maintain the main maritime trade routes. So that means if you withdraw from the first island chain completely, none of these would be possible. Furthermore, the report argues that Washington, D.C. must maintain a clear and continuous high-level communication and to explain to Beijing that the purpose of this strategic adjustment is not to capitulate to mainland China and not to withdraw completely from Asia. But I don't think that they understand how the communists are thinking. If you go to Beijing and tell them this, the chances are that communists would think that you're weak, you're afraid of fighting war, you're just actually capitulating to me. So if that's the case, I would ask even more. So in conclusion, I would say that this report seriously overlooks the trouble or the real situation in mainland China. Mainland China is actually beset with troubles both at home and abroad. And that's something that they really overlook. And there's something really missing from this report. The confrontation between mainland China or communist China and the United States is not only a rivalry for hegemony or to stop China or mainland China from rising up. Actually, it's a confrontation of ideologies, battle systems, and ways of life. And that's something we really cherish. Well, that's all I want to share with you today. I hope you like today's program. Please share it with your friends and subscribe to it if you haven't done so. And do remember to click the icon bell. I'll see you next time.