Strategy Insights Ep 106:Paving the Way for War? China Overhauls Mobilization Law, Alarms for Taiwan

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Professor Ming's Strategic Insights. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, namely Communist China's Parliament or Congress, passed five laws on August the 28th. They include the medical insurance law, the law on arable land protection, and agricultural law, lawyer's law, and most importantly, the so-called National Defense Mobilization Law. This last one, National Defense Mobilization Law, once implemented, will have a tremendous impact not only on Chinese nationals, Chinese citizens, but also on foreign companies in China and even foreign countries. So it deserves a very careful scrutiny. This National Defense Mobilization Law is not a new one. It was first introduced in 2010. This is probably the first and biggest revision ever since then. And as I see it, there are three reasons or three motivations for them to do the revision. The first one, according to their own description, they want to institutionalize the rapid transition from peacetime to wartime readiness. I think they learned their lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian War, because the Attrition War places a high demand on logistics and also on industrial tenacity. In both Article 1 and 3, we see this. This is the first time they defined national defense mobilization as to safeguard the rapid transition from peacetime to wartime readiness and to bridge civilian and military sectors and to transform economic, technological, social capabilities into national defense capabilities. And a second consideration, as I see it, is to incorporate the modern technologies into those fighting capabilities, such as AI, artificial intelligence, big data, cyberspace, and unmanned systems, things like that. And thirdly, let's not forget about politics. They always say politics takes command. So this time, they put the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping's thoughts on strengthening the armed forces and especially to safeguard the national development interests. They put all these three into the law. So the question is, how are they going to put these considerations into reality or into practice? Let's identify the key revisions or the key additions. First one comes first, the definition. In Articles 63 to 65, it says this. The civilian resources, such as installations, equipment, material, data, technology, and things like that, can be expropriated by the state once necessary. In the past, in the older edition of the law, it simply says we need that and we want to acquire that. That means in the new law, they expand the requisition to include expropriation. So that's a big leap of the idea and of the practice. And the second biggest change comes in Article 29 and Article 45. It says this. The State Council and the Central Military Commission can put out the list and asking the civilian companies or corporations to incorporate national defense requirements in their stage of R&D, meaning once it's possible, they have to put the dual use into consideration. And that's it. And the third revision comes in Article 68. They are going to put 12 sectors into control once mobilized. They include the financial sector, transportation, postal service, telecommunication, publication, television broadcasting, and information network, radio, energy supply and water supply, medical, food supply, grain supply, and also business and foreign trade. All these 12 sectors will be put into tight control once mobilized. Upon hearing all these, you think this is comprehensive. Well, not yet. Wait until you hear the fourth one. In the past, the mobilization mechanism can be triggered only when they consider the state sovereignty or national sovereignty or territorial integrity are threatened. But this time, the trigger mechanism expanded into including once the developmental interest of the state is threatened or national unity is threatened, it will be triggered. That implies that the mobilization not only deal with a war against aggression, a war against other countries, it can be used as a legal weapon for launching blockade or launching a gray zone tactic, or even the protection of so-called supply chain. So this is something that really worries us. So it is naturally understandable that once implemented, this national defense mobilization law will bring about much serious consequences and heavy impact upon various areas. So first, domestically, that means that the Chinese people's properties or assets, money, houses, or even they themselves can be expropriated or even seized by the state once mobilized. Although they talk about compensations, but according to the past records, we can tell that the Chinese government's compensations do not usually live up to the real cost. So that means the Chinese people will suffer much losses in various areas or various domains. And secondly, there are still many foreign companies or corporations inside China. So that means their technology, their data, their supply chain, or their business secrets, or their technological secrets can be accessed by the Chinese government once the mobilization law is triggered during the wartime, or even when the Chinese government thinks that their developmental interest is threatened. And there's more to it. I think this mobilization law will bring about a spillover threat to regional security concerns. Remember in Article 1 and 3, it talks about how they're going to do a rapid transition from peacetime to wartime readiness. This concept will blur the distinction between the peacetime and wartime. It greatly reduces or squeezes the so-called early warning time or early warning period. And inevitably, it'll trigger another wave of arms races in the area, and also weaponization of supply chain in neighboring countries. And in the end, if we put all these together, Taiwan will be the main target for this mobilization law. And Taiwan will be facing even greater threats and risks from mainland China. And before I conclude today's show, let me add one more thing. Remember when we talked about Xi Jinping's going to visit Washington, D.C. in late September? It is reported in the news that he's going to bring a big group of Chinese businessmen with him to visit Washington, D.C. So on the surface, he's going to strike a big business deal with President Trump. But you must remember that I have reminded you that this is only a camouflage. He's going to use this to strike what he called a grand deal with President Trump. He will lure President Trump into stopping arms sales to Taiwan completely, or signing a fourth communique, or asking President Trump to pressure Taiwan entering into a peace negotiation with Beijing. And if this comes true, that means his fourth term in the 21st Party Congress to be held in 2028 will be secured. And that's his main purpose. I'm not saying that this is going to happen for sure, but this is something that's in his secret agenda. So be vigilant. Well, that's all I want to share with you today. I hope you liked today's program. Please share it with your friends and subscribe to our program. And do remember to click the icon bell. That's all for today. I'll see you next time.