Gold Has Rallied Into October in 13 of the Last 15 Years | Phil Streible
Sep 1, 2026 Market Updates and Analysis
Gold fell more than 3% after Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech and kept falling Monday, even as American forces struck Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz and crude climbed above 90 dollars. Phil Streible of Blue Line Futures says a September rate hike would be a policy mistake the Fed has to undo, and that the undoing is when gold accelerates.
Streible told his clients to take money off the table on Friday, before Warsh spoke, and explains exactly what he saw: silver stalling at the 100-day, gold teetering at the 200-day, and a dollar getting a relentless bid.
He gives the level that would change his mind on gold, the August 18 low he calls the line in the sand, and why 150 dollars off a 600 dollar run is a correction rather than a top.
On inflation, he argues the Fed is aiming the wrong tool at the wrong problem. Tariffs, Iranian strikes and an attack on a Black Sea port are supply shocks, and rate hikes cannot manufacture more oil or wheat.
On silver, he lays out the structural deficit, why 70% of supply arrives as a byproduct of copper, lead and zinc, and the levels that matter on both sides. He also walks through how he actually sizes a silver position using average true range, which is the part almost nobody explains.
Plus platinum and palladium, why he'd short them against a long gold and silver book, the miners, gold seasonality into year end, and why after 25 years on a commodity desk he has never once used Bitcoin.
Phil Streible is chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures and has written commentary for Kitco since 2007.
Recorded August 31 2026
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00:00 Gold Falls While Oil Jumps After US Strikes on Iran
01:49 Why He Pulled Clients Out Before Warsh Spoke
03:01 Long or Short Gold and Silver Right Now
03:55 A September Rate Hike Would Be a Policy Mistake
04:36 Do Middle East Headlines Still Move Gold
06:05 Why Everything Sold Off Together
08:23 The Exact Gold Levels He's Watching
10:15 Why Rate Hikes Can't Fix This Inflation
11:38 How He Trades Platinum and Palladium
13:11 Silver's Deficit and the 70% Byproduct Problem
14:40 Silver Levels: 60 to 73.65
15:37 How to Scale Into Silver Without Getting Wrecked
18:26 What He's Doing Into the September Fed Meeting
19:05 Every Time the Fed Hiked Into a Flattening Curve
20:20 What Friday's Jobs Report Has to Do
21:20 Why Gold Does Well in Stagflation
22:36 What Gets Gold Back to $5,000
23:49 Physical, Futures, Miners: Why You Need All Three
25:45 Inside His 10-Stock Gold Mining Portfolio
27:20 Why He Has Never Used Bitcoin
28:55 Gold Seasonality and His One Trade Into Year End
30:05 What 25 Years on a Desk Taught Him
#Gold #Silver #FederalReserve
#GoldPrice #SilverPrice #Fed #RateHike #KevinWarsh #Stagflation #PreciousMetals #GoldForecast #SilverForecast #KitcoNews
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