Gold Bull Run Or Fakeout? Miners The Best Swing Short

Hey folks, welcome to verifiedinvesting.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here. And in today's video, we're going to deep dive into gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper to really isolate down if the lows are in, if they are, what type of pullback could we get and where do we buy and ultimately what are the trades that I am in. Now, before we do that, just a reminder, Gareth's Top Squad is my YouTube premium. It's only 10 bucks a month. And again, you get exclusive videos and major weekly discounts to things on verified investing. It's the only area we do big discounts in. Other than that, you really don't get anything out there. So it's worth it just alone to have it for the discounts. Then you get premium exclusive videos where I talk, I even gave out an options trade. I got in at one point last week, I believe it was, and other key setups that I am seeing. All right. So that's where we are right now, but let's dive right into the chart. Here is gold. Gold is pulling back. And if you know, and I've been following, I did say that I was expecting a pullback on gold. I'm also very bearish on the miners in the near term. Now, please don't misunderstand. Just because I'm bearish on gold and the miners, it doesn't mean long-term I'm bearish. I'm extremely bullish long-term. But remember, you have to stay in your timeframe. I'm a swing trader. So I'm looking for multi-day pullbacks, then the next big rip, et cetera. And right now we've had a big run in gold, an even bigger run in the miners. The miners to me are the better short here. Gold, yeah, it's pulling back a little bit, but I don't think it's going to be a massive pullback before the next leg up. But I want to give you guys all the details. So let's look at this chart and dissect it, right? So again, I love dissecting it here guys with you, and that's always the best way to do it. So number one, we knew about this trend line right here. This is what alerted me to where it broke out, right? So we could see right here. And what we're doing is essentially connecting our high pivots, high pivots to high pivot right along here. Then again, right there and all the way through. And I always like to label these because I just think it clarifies it so amazingly how a chart can hit over and over again and have resistance. But one of the key components of the methodology is that the more you hit a trend line, the more likely or the weaker that trend line becomes. In other words, the more likely that eventually you get a breakout. And that's exactly what happened here. So once it broke out, it was like a jail break out of the jail, off to the up. Now gold has gone up about 19%. So again, impressive move in that respect. Now the bigger question again is where does that ultimately go? Now the key here, and this is what I've been looking for, and it went right to it. We take this trend line right here. So you could see on the chart, we have this beautiful sideways chop, right? Which was kind of resistance, resistance, resistance. Then you broke out, pullback, and then you had your final leg of the bull market that ended in early 2026. What we want to do is take this low pivot right here with the trend line, put it right there, drag it up to this low pivot. Now notice how in here, no other trend line touches. So there's a method. A lot of people struggle with drawing trend lines, and I get it. It took me years and years and years. Granted, I didn't have videos like this that kind of taught me some of the basic principles of drawing trend lines. But essentially, you're looking at a major, you have to choose a major pivot point. You don't want to just choose an arbitrary line or an arbitrary lower high. It should be a major pivot point. So in this case, I'm choosing a point where we were consolidating sideways and the beginning of the breakout started. So obviously that's major, right? I mean, it went from sideways to all of a sudden, the beginning of the bull run in gold here. Then I'm taking it to this massive low pivot. Notice again, no other trend lines touch that line. So it's the lowest possible point I can go to on the trend line. And then we drag it through. And what we see is there's this little kind of mini point. And now this is okay. This is the one that's major. And you really want to have it connect to another major, but it can connect with through miners along the way. This would be kind of minor, not minor, you know, miners like gold miners, but just minor pivot lows. Because again, as long as it has a major and another major, you're good to go. And what you discover when you do that is that you drag it out and you start to say, wait a minute, what is going on here? And look at that exact low pierced by a fraction there to this exact low. And look at what we hit yesterday, right up into that level. And so again, listen, that's not the only factor that I look for. One of the things that I was telling you guys about, and I'm going to change the color of that. I like to keep the different colors in here. But one of the things I like to teach in these videos is to look for a confluence and it doesn't have to be a confluence at the exact point because when I'm looking to short, right. And I'm short the miners here. I'm not really, I'm not short gold, but gold running into resistance gave me confidence. And I expect to get a bigger pullback on the miners. And that's why I went with the miners on the short here versus gold. I mean, if gold pulls back 2%, we should get 5% on the miners, right? So, I mean, it just, it works out that way. But really, when you're looking at the chart, you want to see a confluence in the general vicinity. And I say the general vicinity because finding two major confluences at exactly the same price, like to the penny is almost impossible. It does happen, but it's kind of like the white whale, if you will. So, what we did here, what I did here is I kind of said, okay, well, if we take our high here and we do a Fibonacci retrace, what do we get? And what I saw here was that just above this level, we had the Fibonacci 50% range. So, when I went into this, I fully said, hey, listen, you know, this could be a high, but it could also go up a tiny bit more. But the fact that you have these two levels so close together, think about this. Think about you're running and you have to break through a door, right? And so, you're running as hard as you can to ram through a door. Now, if it's just one door there and it's just a thin, you know, wood door, you might break through it. And because you're going so fast into that, right? But if you have a door stacked on a door stacked on a door, in other words, multiple factors at that point, what are the odds that you are going to be able to bust through all two doors or three doors? And the answer is the more doors, the more odds are it's going to stop your momentum and push you back or you're going to slam into it, get hurt, whatever it is going to be. And so, that's kind of the same thought process here is that understanding that you have a very close two levels, major trend lines right in that vicinity. And then what's other, what another interesting factor is too, is you can see this high pivot right here as well. And this is only a minor little high pivot, because again, it's not a major high. I mean, major high would be here. And then this would be a mid-level high. And I'll explain that more another time, how you tell again between the majors and the minors. But ultimately, so far, we're getting the pullback here. Where could gold pull back? Honestly, I really think gold probably first major support is going to be around 4430, 4440. So, it's not that far, maybe another couple hundred dollars down. But on the minors, on GDX, GDX, I mean, look at this run here. Absolutely incredible. Do your Fibonacci on this and look at what you get. Same sort of deal, right? You have your 786, then you have your pivot high right there, which we touched yesterday. Then you filled your gap right here. I mean, just so many doors. So, in this case, you burst through your first, came to your second and it stopped you on a dime. And now we're gapping lower today. Now we are getting a little bit of a bounce on it, but nonetheless, minors are down. And I think the big thing here is like, if you look at Newmont Mining, NEM, I mean, Newmont Mining, so gold, let's go back and put this in perspective, right? So, gold's had a great run, nothing to take away from gold, but at the high, gold was still 19% away from its all-time high, 19%. Now, when gold made its all-time high here, where was Newmont Mining? Newmont Mining was right here, same exact day at an all-time high here. Now, gold has only rallied 19% off of its lows. It still has another 19% to go to its all-time highs, but Newmont Mining, right up in there, double top, double top resistance and ahead of its skis. I would expect Newmont Mining to pull back. What's my target? Right here. High pivot, high pivot, boom, about 120 give or take. But that's a great, again, do you guys understand how when you look at gold and you have a all-time high on gold here that matched perfectly with Newmont, now gold's had a bounce, but it's still way off its all-time highs. But for some reason, Newmont's back to its all-time highs. There's a disparity there. And it doesn't mean it has to be a full disparity. It's not like one for one, but it just, you're looking for the edge. You're looking for to gain probability. And that's what this comes down to be in terms of the miners. Now let's go on to silver and then platinum, palladium and copper. Here you have silver stalling out. Silver's had a much weaker bounce, even though usually silver moves more. And again, the main culprit here is just simply that the move on gold has been perpetuated and influenced by the government buying these long-dated bonds because it basically ruins confidence. And so with silver being industrial, an industrial metal, it takes a little bit of the pure play of the fiat currency alternative, which is gold. And that's why I think gold has been more vertical here versus silver. Now if the economy stays strong, maybe silver picks up steam. We don't know. But that's, I think, the reasoning here. Now having said that, did silver hit resistance? The answer is absolutely. And you can see this low pivot here, this high pivot, and there you have it. Now I would still be a buyer of silver. My dream entry would be a pullback here to the scene of the crime for a long on that. And that would be back to about $56 right now, maybe a little bit lower. By the way, these two trend lines will converge. That would be even better if that ever, if let's just, and I don't know if it'll come back there. I'm speculating, but let's just say silver does come in where two trend lines cross like that. Oh my gosh, that would be incredible. And by the way, that would be around $50, which would be a little scary to see silver there. But that was honestly going back is where I still have this weird sneaking suspicion silver could go to 50 bucks before it bottoms out. A lot of people disagree. I may be wrong. That's the beauty of trading is that that's what makes a market, right? Some people think this. Am I shorting silver? Heck no. Way too low on the charts. I was short when it was up north of 110, 120 dollars an ounce. Now I'll be buying pullbacks or levels, not shorting at this point. All right, let's go to a copper. Copper is one of my favorites here, guys, in terms of a level. I love a short on copper here. Copper's had an incredible bull run. Look at how every time it hits this line, it gets rejected. It's very close to that here. All right. So one of the things I'm watching for a great short trigger for the next down wave would be a break of this trend line right here. I'm going to move it to a different color. If we can break, let's say around 650, then you get your bigger move down with downside to 520 as a possibility. Really incredible move there. Platinum and palladium. Again, these videos getting a little long. Platinum hit resistance. It's pulling back. That's exactly what it should do. There will be support on platinum around 1750. If it breaks that, you'll have additional support around 1660. And then eventually this level down here, if it ever goes back down that low, and then palladium has been a little bit weaker than platinum. Again, hasn't been as big of a move up, but same thing came into resistance, resistance, resistance, down move, lower high, which is a little concerning and potentially a breakdown. I'd be a buyer down in this 1100, 1150 dollar level. Really interesting stuff, guys. But again, you know, every video I do, I try to teach to you guys a little bit to give you insights into the mind of a trader and how I'm analyzing to try to change our minds to more of a objective logic, data-based approach. Because the emotion, when you let it take over, even in life, not even in trading, but just in life, we tend to make bad decisions when we're emotional. And so, you know, it works the same way in investing. All right. Enough said. You guys go have a wonderful rest of your day. Thank you so much for tuning in. I'll talk to you soon. Take care.