More & More Signals Popping Up That Suggest A Pullback Is Near | Lance Roberts
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A current sell signal, slowing momentum, retail demand weakening...
These are just some of the recent indicators suggesting the market rally in stocks is losing steam, and more likely than not to experience some sort of pullback in the coming weeks.
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, the breaking deal for the US to gain access to 65+ billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves, Nvidia's blowout earnings & forecast, and of course, his firm's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.
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#kevinwarsh #oil #nvidia
0:00 Nvidia earnings: did they save the AI trade and markets?
2:34 Nvidia numbers: revenue, data center, operating income, margins, EPS
3:17 Accounts receivable and balance-sheet concerns
4:29 AI vs. late-1990s dot-com — real revenue vs. hype
6:06 What happens to Nvidia demand when the data-center buildout ends?
7:17 Multi-year thesis: ride the buildout, then shift
9:11 Later rotation toward hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL)
9:59 Current Nvidia weight (~4%, modestly underweight)
10:49 Kevin Warsh Jackson Hole speech — key takeaways
11:40 Financial conditions “not restrictive”; room to hike if needed
13:16 September hike unlikely; possible move later in the year
14:17 Warsh vs. Bessent: clean market signals vs. Treasury buybacks
16:36 Basis trade, leveraged shorts, and distorted Treasury yields
18:54 “Normal” rates after years of ZIRP and QE
19:32 Soft prints: Chicago PMI plunge and negative payroll revisions
21:27 Two-speed economy — AI capex boom vs. consumer/employment weakness
25:24 Near-term capex inflation vs. long-term debt/demographics disinflation
26:52 S&P technicals: August rally, 20-day test, September setup
28:03 Midterm-year caution and possible pullback toward the 50-day
30:12 Alignment with Mark Newton: choppy into midterms, then year-end strength
33:03 Breadth still broad — bullish now, contrarian at extremes
34:42 Possible risk-reduction signal in the next 2–3 weeks
39:21 Reported 100-year U.S.–Venezuela oil-field lease
41:45 Energy security, OPEC fracturing, and Venezuela implications
48:38 No new trades — patience in a sideways August market
50:36 Rant: money is a means; relationships, purpose, and health matter more
51:52 “Touch grass” — the Truckee River float and unplugged time
56:04 Social media vs. real happiness benchmarks
1:03:02 Protect time for low-cost, high-memory living
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