Putin has postponed deadline for seizing Donbas 15 times since war began; world laughs at his army
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Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has given the military 15 deadlines for the complete capture of Donbas, but the General Staff generals have failed to meet each of them. This is according to analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War, citing Western intelligence data and Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate. According to Reuters sources , back in August of last year, the army command promised Putin that the Ukrainian front would collapse by October-November, and the Donetsk region would finally be completely captured by the middle of the fourth year of the war.
In the spring of 2026, according to Financial Times sources , the deadline was pushed back to the fall of this year. In the summer, according to Bloomberg, the military promised that Donbas would be completely under Russian control by winter.
However, the Russian army currently controls only 79.89% of the Donetsk region’s territory (21,170 square kilometers), according to ISW estimates. The Kremlin’s military goals “continue to remain out of touch with reality,” the institute’s analysts believe. Last year, the Russian army managed to capture only 0.8% of Ukraine’s territory, and by 2024, only 0.6%. Moreover, in certain areas, the pace of the Russian advance has set new records in more than 100 years of modern warfare—15–70 meters per day.
This year, the offensive has practically stalled: according to DeepState, Russian troops increased the territory under their control by only 88 square kilometers, compared to 57 square kilometers the previous month, and ended May with a net loss of 11 square kilometers, despite a record number of “meat assaults,” which increased by 60% compared to the winter and early spring. Given the current pace of the offensive, Russian troops will likely fail to capture Donbas by the end of 2026, and possibly never, according to ISW. Some General Staff military personnel also consider Putin’s goals unrealistic and believe the war for Donbas will continue into 2027, sources close to the Ministry of Defense told Bloomberg.
Despite a series of Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory that have hit refineries, ports, and marketplace warehouses, it’s premature to say that Kyiv has managed to turn the situation on the front lines to its advantage, says Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia in Berlin.
Ukrainian troops are actively defending in most areas, while Russian forces are compensating for this by increasing the number of combined arms units against priority sectors—primarily Donetsk, notes Massicot. Meanwhile, Russian ground assault tactics in 2026 have remained virtually unchanged, she emphasizes: infantry infiltration remains the primary method, and assault groups sometimes consist of only one or two people. Meanwhile, the “kill zone,” where drones destroy infantry, is expanding for both sides, making movement and supply dangerous for everyone.
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