Xi Jinping Forced to Back Down? Major Twist in Zhang Youxia Case

Recently, people outside China have again been paying close attention to whether Zhang Niuxia will be treated leniently. Some believe that, given Xi Jinping's personality, he is unlikely to let Zhang go easily. However, this possibility cannot be completely ruled out. One thing is clear, this would not be Xi's original choice. Instead, it would mean that he was forced to step back because of an internal power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party. Others believe that the way Zhang Niuxia is dealt with could affect whether Xi Jinping can stay in power for another term at the CCP's 21st National Congress. Predictions about the outcome of Zhang Niuxia's case On January 24, 2026, the Chinese Communist Party officially announced the downfall of Zhang Niuxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, chief of staff of the CMC Joint Five months have passed, but the Chinese authorities have still not announced how the two men will be punished. Claims have also appeared online that Zhang Niuxia may receive relatively light treatment. On July 22, Kai Shengkun, an independent commentator living in the United States, wrote on X, Recently, I have seen posts on X claiming that Xi Jinping will treat Zhang Niuxia lightly by allowing him to remain in the military and simply lowering his rank. I believe this claim is extremely unreliable. The more reliable information is still what I reported earlier. Zhang Niuxia's case will likely be handled in a similar way to those of Wei Fengnei and Li Shengfu. He may receive a death sentence with the sentence suspended. He will probably spend the final years of his life in Qincheng prison, unless he lives long enough to see Xi Jinping brought down. Xi Jinping made a very difficult decision to arrest Zhang Niuxia, even though doing so meant offending the children of senior Communist Party officials and military leaders. At this point, he cannot possibly let the tiger return to the mountains. If Zhang is treated lightly and only demoted, it would mean that Xi Jinping's new era is coming to an end. Xi would then have even less chance of securing another term at the CCP's 21st National Congress. Xi and his entire political group would be finished. Users on X commented, the struggle between the two sides is a fight to the death. Xi cannot let the tiger return to the mountains. Xi has remembered the saying, do not seek empty fame and make the same mistake as Zhang Niu since childhood. Another user wrote, Zhang will certainly not be treated lightly. Otherwise, wouldn't that be the same as letting the tiger return to the mountains? Others expressed different views. Even if Zhang receives light treatment, it would still be deeply humiliating for him. Would he accept it? Zhang was a top military leader. Would the military accept it? I do not think the outcome will be so simple. Another person commented, if Zhang is treated lightly, it would mean that steamed bun Xi is afraid of something. If he is afraid, that would mean Zhang still has the ability to fight back. Therefore, the idea of light treatment does not make sense. Keeping Zhang Youxia in prison until his death is Xi's only choice. Another wrote, if Zhang Youxia is allowed to remain in the military and is only demoted, Xi Jinping's so-called new era will become a joke. If Xi even dares to release such a powerful member of the second generation of Communist Party elites, how can he expect to win another term at the CCP's 21st National Congress? Wake up! Qincheng Prison is the only place where a true lifetime term exists. Another user said, whether the punishment is heavy or light, it was not easy to arrest him. There is no way they would simply let him go. Some users disagreed, saying, for someone at Zhang Youxia's level, there is no such thing as a simple demotion or light punishment. If Zhang posed no threat to Xi, Xi could simply remove him from the Central Military Commission and give him a symbolic position, such as vice chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, so that he could retire peacefully. Another user said, it is very possible that Zhang and Liu are already dead. All the current rumors may have been deliberately released from inside China's internet firewall, and people in weaker positions have believed them without question. One person used an image to describe Xi Jinping's situation. It is like swallowing a large piece of meat that gets stuck in your throat. You cannot swallow it, but you cannot spit it out either. It is extremely uncomfortable. Zhang Youxia? Case? Has Xi backed down? Commenting on the issue, Yun Qi, a US-based current affairs commentator, told Kan Zhongguo that the information should be viewed from two sides. First, given how harsh internal power struggles within the Chinese Communist Party can be, it is difficult to imagine Xi Jinping treating Zhang Youxia lightly. Yun Qi said that if Xi were to go easy on Zhang now, it would be like political suicide. It would also not match Xi Jinping's usual stubborn and reckless style, often described by the phrase, walking 10 miles on a mountain road without switching the load from one shoulder to the other. However, Yun Qi also said that current signs related to Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli suggest that Xi Jinping has faced strong resistance. Although many people outside China continue to say that Xi holds complete power and that no force can challenge him, Zhang Youxia's case shows that the challenges and doubts Xi faces within the party are now clearer than ever. Therefore, the possibility that Zhang Youxia may receive relatively light treatment cannot be ruled out. However, this would certainly not be Xi Jinping's original choice. Instead, it would mean that he had been forced to back down in an internal power struggle. Fierce infighting among Chinese Communist Party factions On April 3, 2026, Ma Xingri, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo, was officially announced as having fallen from power. In July, shortly before the Beidaihe meeting, he was expelled from the party, removed from public office, and handed over to the judicial authorities. On June 26, the National People's Congress announced that 14 officials, including Ma Xingri, had lost their seats as NPC deputies. However, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli still kept their seats. Unlike Ma's case, there has been no public progress in the case of Zhang Youxia, who is also a Politburo member. Kai Shengkun said that at least two conclusions can be drawn. First, the evidence against Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli may still not be strong enough. Second, there may still be disagreements within China's party, government, and military over how to handle their cases. On July 16, Kai said on his personal media program that Zhang Youxia had admitted trying to force Xi Jinping to give up power. Zhang reportedly said that he had been only one step away from rewriting history. Kai also cited sources saying that Zhang had received support from some retired senior party leaders. These claims have not been independently verified. However, they suggest that there are different views within the Chinese Communist Party over how Zhang Youxia's case should be handled. Kai said that the political situation ahead of the CCP's 21st National Congress remains highly uncertain. Different factions are waiting for the right moment, and a major event could quickly change the balance of power at the top. Do the party elders really hold power? On June 30, 2025, the Politburo met to review a rule with a very long title, the Regulations on the Work of Central Party Decision-Making, Deliberative, and Coordinating Bodies. The official explanation was only two sentences long. These bodies should discuss and manage major issues, coordinate different departments, but not take over their work. They should stay within their proper role and not exceed their authority. According to claims circulating outside China's internet firewall, senior retired leaders used this rule to create a special decision-making group led by Wen Jiabao. Its reported members included Li Ruihuan, Zheng Qinghong, Wang Yang, Zhao Leji, Li Qian, and Xi Jinping himself. Hu Jintao and Zhang Youxia were said to attend when major issues were discussed. The idea was reportedly proposed by Wen Jiabao. Officially, the group used an existing party mechanism. In practice, however, it was said to have partly revived the Central Advisory Commission from the Deng Xiaoping era, which once gave retired senior leaders a formal role. According to John Feng, the clever part of this move was that if the elders had openly formed a committee to deal with Xi Jinping, it would have looked like a coup and forced the entire party and military to immediately choose sides. But this special table was not created privately. It was set up by the Politburo under rules approved by the Politburo itself. Its name was even reportedly proposed by Xi Jinping at the meeting. It was as if Xi had personally issued a business license to the group that would later take away his power. After the group was formed, it reportedly did three things. First, it moved real decision-making ahead of the official process. Major personnel cases, military matters, and foreign policy issues were discussed by the group before being passed to Xi Jinping. His only remaining task was to sign the final documents. After the fourth plenum in October 2025, Xi reportedly withdrew from the group. Claims circulating outside China's firewall said very directly that the body had effectively become a new party central committee. Second, it gave retired senior leaders a legal way to return power. In the past, retirement meant leaving political power. Once a person was no longer a Politburo member, they could not formally take part in meetings of the top leadership. Deng Xiaoping created the retirement system for officials on the principle that once leaders stepped down, they should truly step down. But once retired leaders were made members of this new body, they could legally return to the decision-making table. Wen Jiabao, a former premier, and Li Ruihuan, a former chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, reportedly returned in this way. How valuable was this access? During the reported power struggle at Beidaihe last summer, claims circulated that an elder linked to Zeng Qinghong's faction complained that the group was controlled by Wen Jiabao and Li Ruihuan. Zhang Dejiang and Jia Qinglin were reportedly not invited at all, while Wang Yang, who had less seniority, was allowed to join. If this complaint was true, then conservative factions were no longer arguing over whether the group should exist. Instead, they were fighting over who had the right to sit at the table. Third, the group reportedly separated control of the party, government, and military, with one person assigned to supervise each area. To remove someone's party and military power, it is ultimately enough to take away their access to documents and their right to attend meetings. However, the daily work of the general secretary and the chairman of the Central Military Commission cannot stop, even for one day. Files and documents must still be handled every day. According to the stories circulating outside China's firewall, Wang Yang was appointed to manage the daily work of the acting general secretary. Wang is a former chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and a senior reform-minded figure from the Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao era. His office was reportedly placed inside the general secretary's office in Zhongnanhai. Liu Yuan, the son of former Chinese President Liu Shaoqi and a senior military figure, was reportedly appointed to manage the daily work of the acting chairman of the Central Military Commission. His office was said to be located inside the CMC chairman's office in the So what power was left in Xi Jinping's hands? According to this account, only two public roles remained, foreign affairs arranged by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and propaganda activities organized by the party's Central Propaganda Department. What do you think about this claim? Please leave a comment below. Thank you and see you next time.