Riots in Russia due to mobilization; Russian National Guard was tasked with suppressing the uprising
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The Kremlin is creating conditions for possible mobilization and preparing for potential unrest in Russia. This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War. On July 22, the Russian State Duma passed a bill allowing citizens with outstanding criminal records—including for drug smuggling and participation in organized crime groups—to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense during formal periods of mobilization.
On the same day , Russian Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Army General Viktor Goremykin, stated that the law would expand the number of Russians eligible for military service and facilitate recruitment efforts for the war against Ukraine in 2026. On July 21, the Russian National Guard, Russia's militarized internal security agency, published proposed amendments expanding civil defense regulations—ostensibly to protect Russian society from unspecified "dangers" during mobilization, martial law, and wartime conditions. In November 2025, President Putin signed a law authorizing him to send reservists to combat zones without declaring mobilization. ISW analysts were already assessing that the Kremlin would likely use this law to conduct phased, partial call-ups of reservists. According to ISW, the Kremlin is creating the conditions for declaring formal mobilization and potentially imposing martial law in Russia itself, preparing for possible civil unrest, as mobilization remains extremely unpopular among Russian society.
Analysts note that the decision to mobilize remains a very personal one for Putin and ultimately depends on his own perception of the situation at the front and the stability of the Kremlin. It remains unclear whether Putin will make such a decision in the near future and what exactly the announcement of mobilization might look like.
According to the Center for Countering Disinformation estimates, Russia is preparing a mobilization of over 500,000 people in the autumn – some of them will be sent directly to the front in Ukraine.
According to President Zelenskyy, Russia may resort to a new wave of mobilization after the elections to the State Duma – this would allow it to avoid significant expenditures on contract soldiers. The Main Intelligence Directorate also reported that Russia is covertly preparing a general mobilization to continue the war, avoiding public mentions of it due to public discontent.
In addition, it was reported that authorities in Russian regions are demanding that entrepreneurs provide people for the war against Ukraine, and those who are not ready to do so are being offered to pay severance money. According to the report, TV Rain obtained the "2026 Plan for the Selection of Candidates for Contract Military Service" for the Muysky District of Buryatia.
The TV channel received the document from a source close to the republic's administration, although the source clarified that the same scheme is being used throughout Russia. The "plan" specifies how many people work at each company, how many men aged 20 to 60 it employs, and how many of them must be sent to fight in the war against Ukraine.
The source said the scheme works as follows: the head of the Muysky District receives a quota from the republican headquarters, after which the local headquarters distributes the required number of recruits among businesses.
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