"Russia is in a dire situation": fuel crisis spells end for Putin's rule

"Russia is in a dire situation": fuel crisis spells end for Putin's rule

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Ukraine's drone war against Russia is nothing new. Its offensive operations against Russian energy facilities are also nothing new. But the scale, range, intensity, and consequences of what Ukraine has done in just the past few months are undeniably new, writes Foreign Policy.

The publication reported that Kyiv was using its growing arsenal of long-range weapons, primarily drones and sometimes cruise missiles, to push the war into Russian territory in a way that could actually change the course of events for the first time since 2022.

"Omsk is a good example. It's Russia's largest oil refinery, located in Siberia, more than 1,200 miles from Ukraine. Its destruction last week was traumatic for local residents and caused almost equal outcry in the Kremlin," the article states. However, as the publication notes, Ukraine's offensive actions have not subsided: over the past several months, strikes have been launched against oil refineries, oil depots, oil export ports, and fuel storage tanks.

"The destruction inflicted on the Russian tanker fleet in the Black Sea by Kyiv's unmanned fleet this month is unprecedented," the publication notes.

It explains that this radically changes the situation for Russia in two ways. Firstly, and most noticeably, Russians now have to stand in long lines to fill up their cars with gasoline.

The publication notes that across the country, Russia's ability to refine crude oil into petroleum products for consumers has clearly deteriorated as a result of Ukraine's offensive: "This applies to gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, and everything else. The country has begun introducing rationing. Russian state media aren't taking this well."

According to a recent study by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or OIES, Russia has effectively lost a fifth of its refining capacity, from approximately 5.2 million barrels per day before the war to 3.8 million today. According to OIES, this is "the lowest level in 21 years."

"The combination of a wider geographic reach, multiple attacks, and increasingly precise targeting of sophisticated oil refining facilities, along with attacks on export infrastructure, is putting pressure on both Russia's domestic market and export sales," the OIES report notes.

However, as the publication notes, there is another aspect due to which Russia is currently not in the best position: it has problems with exporting products.

It is noted that petroleum products bring in more money than crude oil, especially if crude oil is sold at a discount on the world market, as is the case with Russian Urals crude oil. The publication reported that Russian oil product exports fell significantly in June. As the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which closely monitors these flows, noted last week, "in June, oil product loading volumes at Russian seaports reached their lowest level on record." On the one hand, there is a lack of production, on the other, the impossibility of sales: Russia is in a depressing situation.

It is noteworthy that all of this is happening against the backdrop of renewed excitement surrounding the US Congress's measures against Russia, namely the "Russia Sanctions Act."



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