A fatal scenario for Putin is unfolding in Russia; the processes that will bury the Kremlin regime
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The collapse of Putin's regime has already begun—it's only a matter of time and the emergence of the right leader. This is also evidenced by the dictator's heightened paranoia: doubles, food tasters, and 800 bodyguards are a response to the growing fear of an assassination attempt. Meanwhile, discontent is building within Russia, which could explode suddenly—in a way the system itself cannot predict.
This is precisely the picture painted by Olga Kurnosova, secretary of the Russian Opposition Forum in Support of Ukraine, in an interview with Glavred. According to her, processes fatal to Putin have already been launched – and they are developing quietly but relentlessly. Any high-profile event could trigger an explosion: from a successful attack on an elite Moscow suburb to another systemic crisis.
As Olga Kurnosova, Secretary of the Russian Opposition Forum in Support of Ukraine, stated: "These processes have already begun. These fateful processes, which will surely bury Putin politically, and perhaps physically as well, are already underway. The problem is that they are developing quite quietly, and we are seeing only isolated sparks—black and red—arising from these processes."
The opposition figure noted that predicting the exact date of an explosion in a totalitarian society is impossible—even Bolshevik leader Lenin didn't expect a revolution the year it occurred. Russian society traditionally accumulates internal destructiveness to a certain critical point. Then, the slightest pretext is enough for a large-scale social upheaval. Closed sociological studies within Russia record a dramatic rise in anti-government sentiment . Russians are dissatisfied with the fuel crisis in the regions, the mass exodus of residents from the temporarily occupied Crimea, and the daily drone strikes on Moscow. However, this protest remains fragmented—people see no single figure around whom they can unite.
Kurnosova drew a historical parallel: the leaders of popular uprisings—Stepan Razin and Yemelyan Pugachev—appeared suddenly, without warning. Similarly, today, a new figure at the head of a protest could emerge unexpectedly for the Kremlin.
Political scientist and expert on Central and Eastern Europe Ivan Preobrazhensky noted that loyalty to Putin is declining due to the dictator's reluctance to end the war. He emphasized: "Russians are losing faith that the war can finally end. And once they stop believing it, they're starting to distrust... and genuinely become dissatisfied with Putin. Because they understand: it's his personal achievement that this isn't happening. He's the one holding the war back." According to Preobrazhensky, this trend could become long-term, as the war itself may not end for a long time. This means discontent will continue to build. The deepening crisis within Russia is accompanied by intensifying tensions between various security agencies. Fedorenko, commander of the Achilles Battalion, spoke about the struggle between the military and the security services in Russia. According to him, the standoff between the army leadership and the security services is becoming increasingly acute and is one of the symptoms of the regime's systemic weakness. At the same time, analysts are considering scenarios for exerting pressure on Putin from outside. Bloomberg explained how Putin could be forced to end the war through a ceasefire—both a salvation for Moscow and a form of the regime's capitulation to internal pressure. These two vectors—internal disunity and external coercion—together form the "fatal scenario" the opposition is warning about.
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