"Logistics blockade" of Russia by Ukraine; serious weaknesses in Russia's rear defense
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In recent weeks, Ukraine has increasingly launched sustained and coordinated attacks on Russian military supply chains . While previous strikes on Russian infrastructure demonstrated the capabilities of Ukrainian unmanned aerial systems, the "logistics blockade" campaign has become a targeted and coordinated attempt to disrupt Russian military supply chains and fuel supplies.
The Royal United Services Institute or RUSI concluded in its report that the "logistics blockade" exposed serious weaknesses in Russia's rear defenses. It also demonstrated some of the practical and political limitations of such attacks on infrastructure.
It is noted that during the latest campaign, Ukraine has focused its efforts on Russian supply chains around Crimea, particularly along the R-280 "Novorossiya" highway, which runs from Russia's Rostov Oblast to Crimea through occupied territories. This is an alternative route to the Kerch Bridge, which itself has been repeatedly attacked since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. RUSI added that the Russians considered these logistics routes safe because they were far from the front. However, Ukraine has proven that the Russian rear can be vulnerable.
Ukraine has ensured that supply routes to Crimea are blocked. Trucks that are too heavy cannot cross the Kerch Bridge, and private logistics companies are having difficulty obtaining vehicle insurance.
Analysts noted that the land corridor is the only supply route to the occupied territories in the south and east. Now, cargo shipments to Crimea are carried out in long, vulnerable convoys, with trucks rerouted to secondary roads and guarded by soldiers.
Furthermore, fuel storage in Crimea is fraught with problems: in the event of an attack, there is a risk of explosions. Analysts emphasized that this problem affects not only Crimea but also other Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine, as well as some areas of southern Russia, such as the Belgorod region. RUSI noted that some drone strikes were timed to coincide with high-profile political events in Russia. For example, the attack on the naval base in Kronstadt and oil refineries near St. Petersburg coincided with the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), which Russian officials consider the main investment event of the year.
Moreover, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin decided to publicly ignore a major Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow, instead holding the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Kazan. Analysts emphasized that all these problems taken together demonstrate that Russia faces serious challenges in securing its rear. In particular, attacks on infrastructure around Crimea highlight the significant challenges Russia faces in protecting and maintaining the connectivity of its long and vulnerable supply chains across vast geographic distances.
Furthermore, analysts added that Ukrainian drones are becoming increasingly long-range, covering thousands of kilometers to their targets. This makes it increasingly difficult for Russia to protect its ports, railway systems, and oil refineries not only in the European part of the country but also in Siberia and the Far East. RUSI noted that in many areas of the Far East, the Trans-Siberian Railway is a long and vulnerable single-track line. Previous acts of physical sabotage against Russian rail systems, switchboards, locomotives, and bridges have temporarily disabled trains and slowed the network, but have not completely shut it down. However, Ukraine will soon be able to disable it unless the Russians strengthen their defenses.
"The uneven deployment of air defense systems, located primarily around major cities, and the lack of weapons to intercept drones are only part of the problem," the report said.
Analysts also stated that Russia is slow to respond and adapt to the issue of home front defense. To protect its rail network from drone attacks, Russia reintroduced Soviet-era armored trains designed to supply the front lines and protect railway troops repairing damaged sections of track and bridges. However, these trains have become targets for drones, which have destroyed the locomotives and disabled them. RUSI believes that technically, Ukraine could disable the Crimean Bridge and cut its connection to mainland Russia. This would be a symbolic victory for Ukraine, but there's a problem.
Analysts are confident that such a move would draw disapproval from Ukraine's allies in Europe and the United States, jeopardizing their support. Furthermore, any actions aimed at completely disabling the bridge would trigger a serious escalation on the part of Russia.