Uprising against Putin in 83 regions: Ukrainian long-range strikes push Russia to breaking point
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For four years, Vladimir Putin largely succeeded in shielding Russians from the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine. But now that has changed.
As Politico reports, Ukrainian missile and drone strikes on key energy infrastructure in recent weeks have transformed the war from a relatively minor irritant that most Russians could ignore into an immediate and increasingly acute fuel crisis.
Two-thirds of Russia's 83 regions report fuel supply problems, creating hardship for millions of people and posing a direct threat to the viability of many businesses. The situation is particularly acute in Crimea, where authorities have declared a state of emergency and banned fuel sales. The extent of the damage, however, is being carefully concealed: Russia has added domestic fuel prices to the list of economic data it no longer publishes.
However, Russians are witnessing the worsening situation firsthand. Social media is awash with videos of drivers attacking each other over gas or causing chaos in queues of cars waiting to fill up.
Ukraine is deliberately targeting oil refineries that Russia cannot repair or replace on its own, meaning there is no quick solution to the fuel shortage in sight.
"The amount of gasoline available in Russia right now is determined by the race between Ukrainian drones and Russian repair crews. If the frequency of Ukrainian attacks continues, and the damage from each attack increases, the advantage will shift to Kyiv. This is precisely what we are seeing now," writes Sergey Vakulenko, an analyst at the Carnegie Institution for International Peace. Fuel prices typically have a big impact on overall inflation, and Russia's Central Bank has warned that the recent price hike is likely to have longer-term consequences than it has in the past.
"I think we're all concerned about the same thing. I don't think there's a single person in the country who cares about anything other than a speedy end to the fighting. That's obvious," said German Gref, CEO of Sberbank, Russia's largest retail bank.
According to Janis Kluge, an analyst at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Russia's military and classified spending now accounts for almost half of total government spending. Liquid assets in the National Welfare Fund, originally created to cushion economic fluctuations in oil prices, have meanwhile shrunk from approximately 7 percent of gross domestic product at the beginning of 2022 to just 1.7 percent of gross domestic product as of April.
"So the fuel shortage isn't just felt by Putin," Politico notes. As The Sun reports, Ukraine's long-range strike campaign has dramatically changed the course of the war, and Vladimir Putin could face a dilemma within months : capitulate or freeze the conflict.
The Atlantic writes that the drone attacks on Moscow and the surrounding region demonstrate Ukraine's multifaceted strategy, which operates on multiple levels to "disgrace and undermine Putin."
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