
Ukrainian drones are destroying the myth of Moscow's security and paralyzing the Russian rear
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Phillips Payson O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, notes in his column for The Atlantic that this campaign is part of Kyiv's clearly planned multi-vector strategy.
Instead of purely defensive actions, Ukraine has taken the fighting directly to Vladimir Putin's doorstep, exerting political, economic, and military pressure on his regime. The main goal is to emasculate the Russian military machine by depriving it of funding, fuel, and coordination.
On the night of June 30, Ukrainian forces launched their second attack in a week on the Dubna Space Communications Center, located near Moscow. This facility is critical to the Kremlin, as it is used to gather intelligence and coordinate the actions of occupation forces in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, confirming the attack, openly taunted the Russian dictator, stating that similar operations are already being prepared against other similar enemy targets. Kyiv ironically refers to this air campaign as "long-range sanctions," demonstrating to the Russian public that the intensity of the strikes will only escalate. Another example of the successful implementation of the Ukrainian strategy was the massive raid on the Moscow Oil Refinery on June 18. This facility, which supplied approximately 40% of the capital's fuel market, was completely shut down by the explosions and fire until at least the end of 2026, the analyst notes.
This attack demonstrated effectiveness on several levels: Psychological effect: the enormous column of black smoke visible throughout Moscow sent a clear signal to the capital's residents. The period when they could pretend the war was taking place somewhere far away was officially over. The fuel crisis, already gripping the Russian provinces, was approaching Moscow. Financial exhaustion: Putin has already spent most of Russia's former sovereign wealth fund. German think tanks have concluded that the Russian economy has entered the endgame due to stalled growth and depleted fiscal reserves. The Kremlin's budget is critically dependent on oil exports. Until recently, the war in the Middle East kept global oil prices high, giving the Kremlin additional financial respite. However, with the easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf, oil prices also fell, reducing Russia's revenue, the author believes.
The Ukrainian attacks have left Putin with a difficult choice: limit oil exports to meet domestic needs and curb public discontent, or continue exports to finance the army, condemning his own citizens to fuel shortages. From a military perspective, Russia's losses have already exceeded 1.3 million, and strikes on command posts and communications centers like Dubna are finally crushing the army's already sluggish logistics. The Kremlin's attempts to redeploy air defense systems from other regions to protect Moscow only expose the rest of Russia's territory, leaving it vulnerable to further attacks, the expert writes.
O'Brien concludes that Zelenskyy's announced "40-day influence operation" is unlikely to immediately force Russia to capitulate. However, it has completely destroyed the myth that Putin is capable of defending the capital, preserving the economy, and providing for the army. The dictator's demonstrated weakness has his allies and inner circle seriously worried about the dead end of his chosen course.
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