Daily Market Insight for the 22nd March 2022

hi there traders this is brad gilbert with the daily market inside for tuesday the 22nd of march right now i'm just looking across the markets here and um you know seeing a bit of repetitive uh you know news and things that are moving the market looking across the board of the global markets and i'll show you those in a second but it sort of becomes it's becoming a lot clearer to me what what i need to be focusing on and possibly what you could be focusing on as well for looking for where the easiest trade is now obviously there's been a lot of um uh you know central banks sort of coming alive you know talking this last week of the month you get a lot of central bank officials from all of them pretty much coming out saying well you know this is what we're doing this is what we're anticipating it's like a bridge between the core data which comes out in the first at least the first two weeks of each month if not the first three and then you get the uh the connection between the central bankers trying to connect that data and pushing it forward to the next round of key data to look for right this is how the fundamentals connect but um you know there's there's a consistent uh removal of trying to remove trying to impact russia right s p says it will withdraw ratings on all russian entities um there's that sort of still push goes on what's the ramification for that well it's a little bit hard to sort of see on the face of it equity markets don't seem to like it but uh they also don't like the fact that uh the us uh federal reserve uh chairman jerome powell is talking about very hawkish about interest rates now um where one of our traders brent talking about this the other day what about qe they should be pulling some qe out whilst they're doing this because otherwise it's like an artificial thing they're chasing inflation when they need to be pulling cash out of the market they probably don't want to pull cash out of the market because that'll impact equities quite dramatically right and that's the sort of key piece that we're waiting to sort of fit into place when will they start reducing qe to me if inflation gets away from them i mean they've got to start doing it at some point anyway that aside let's start to sort of think about and this is what trading is all about this is what the guys at the banks are doing all the time they're trying to work out where the easiest trade is right so whether you're looking at say u.s equity markets you've got the you know the mainstream uh us equities during the day then you've got the u.s equity futures which tells us what's going on once that u.s market is shut you've got the global equities over here uh australasia asian and european equities and then you're looking at say the currencies you know commodities and then you've got some other aspects risk on risk off safe havens and the oil trade these sorts of things as well as the cryptos right where's the easiest trade here and sometimes it can be quite hard to work out now but just bringing over the charts what i like to do is i'm sort of this is what you get from from analyzing the markets each day and looking at the the key drivers right some of them are geopolitical like the russia ukraine issue um putting a huge amount of pressure on oil etc others are coming from central banks the central bank ones are the ones we can hang our hat on right they tell us a lot more about what's going on now this this uh set of charts here it's just a cross spread of of the financial markets okay so the dollar index tells me here that the dollar isn't really doing anything right so potentially trying to trade the currencies here right at the moment is problematic because the dollar's not doing much right nor is the biggest trading pair euro now let's come back and test it again that's fine it's dribbled off a little bit but still it's not really going anywhere now the volatility index right it's back down to 23. this tells me that the market is completely comfortable with everything that's going on all the uncertainties in the market at the moment they're like we've got a grasp of this and it's uh working out for us right the continuation of the russian ukraine issue has has kicked oil back into the top side starting to get towards an over overbought situation but i tell you what it's nothing to control that this is going to be the outcome or outlook for oil is definitely attached to the russia ukraine issue so you can be watching that quite closely and this is one pair that i would be watching or one instrument right and you know as i showed you on the data page there the oil trade it's connected to so you got light brent you got the dollar cad as well cad yen and even maybe some of the big um uh oil companies chevron and exxon who once again had a pretty big day uh to the top side now we come back and have a look here that's great um we've got these equity markets right they've had a massive rally ever since donald was in power they've come down the smp test of the 200-day moving average it's now a little bit higher nasdaq's done a better job of bouncing back above that that 200-day moving average which tells you it's like in a bearish move and it's now sort of corrected that is it finished yet i don't think so um and i'll come back to that because these like the equity markets to me are one of the key areas that easy trades right because we're getting reference from the central banks directly that's going to impact those uh uh indices now bitcoin well it's sort of sitting on the sidelines at the moment just trading sideways uh not doing too much so i'm not getting myself all bent out of shape trying to work out what's going on there and i'll show you the other charts in a second gold well i'll tell you what it's sort of just banging around has been following oil for some time but it's very hard to quantify your risk when it's up in the middle of nowhere right what you can see at the moment is we had this the safe haven move okay above whatever it was 2050 uh it's moved back down here and it looks like it's found fair value we're waiting for the next round of news or events to see whether this thing goes up again if there's more you know carnage in europe or if that settles down we might see it lower so to me oil is a major player with the u.s russian um sorry u.s russian ukraine russian issue and the equity markets should definitely be on your radar because the fed is talking right they they talk hawkish uh it comes off right equity markets come off if they're dovish which they're not at the moment then it would rally so just having a look here just to give you a whip whip around i mean here's euro it's not doing a hell of a lot at the moment i still am bearish euro overall sterling very tricky trade down here at the moment aussie just dancing around that uh resistance level once again these charts are not changing that much if anything if as i said you've got a potential move here dollar cad it's come right back to that daily trend line and if oil continues towards 130 right well then it's going to put downward pressure on dollar cad for sure dollar yen well it's up in the boondocks you've got dollar swiss above that support and the dollar index so but there's not clear and defined uh impacts on these currencies right it's because of you know you've got the the geopolitical situation in europe you've got uh central banks doing all different things um amongst other things so there's the easiest trade outside of euro i don't think it's really there right one thing is when you look at the equity charts they are a dog's breakfast right you've got these big big rallies that have been hit by the recent falls now it's very hard to use these i've got these orange trend lines which tells me they're weak support trend lines they are pretty pretty tough to get your head around because it's like technically these don't look good but one aspect is with the central banks in particular the fed right if they if they're hawkish and they're talking about higher interest rates you've got to think the u.s equity markets will uh move aggressively first and they impact all the other equity markets so to me if we do have a central bank especially the chairman talking then i'll be watching very closely what's going on with the um with the equity markets right and i've got an equity page here you can see what's going on the u.s equities indices the futures okay one key aspect looking at here the year high low and range there's still a long way to go right there's a sea of red year to date but it's not as bad as it was but i tell you what i'd reckon it's going to be a lot worse because once again if you're trying to connect the overall fundamentals the fed they're telling you they've got they need to raise rates they've got this qe they need to pull that out something's going to give it just everything smells terrible for um uh for the u.s equity markets and we had those relief rallies which were put down to basically a potential uh russian ukraine deal being done right that's just fictitious it looked like a relief rally and now or a dead dog bounce and now we're sort of back to the downside it's not like we've had a big carnage day right but we're only starting the week right so just keep an eye on this it's going to be one of those things that plays that does play out a bit further if you're looking at the um coming back to the cryptos like they're not doing much so you've got the daily charts here right you can see once again uh bitcoin not doing much it's coming back to testing and resistance uh you got litecoin slightly edging at the top side and ethereum as well but on the big pictures they aren't doing doing much at all right so once again the currencies aren't doing much the cryptos aren't doing much equity markets are and they look like the easiest ones to pick off right so i'll be keeping a close eye on that so when it comes back to commodities right it's clear those things there the uh of course oil is a key flavor these oil charts the support levels here don't look sustainable to me i've got a couple of support levels here uh on um on the light and brent crude oil numbers also the iron ore daily i mean that just like commodities have sort of been going through the roof and holding a lot of things up especially the aussie kiwi right so just keep an eye on particularly oil obviously related to that geopolitical event and just keep an eye on on the others as well you've got a bit of a support line a little bit lower here on gold same as silver and also copper well copper's a bit more in the middle of the range so you've got to be watching uh oil it's a news item right and it's something tangible you can hang your hat on as well as the central bank speakers so when i come back and i'm looking at the overall markets work out which ones are the easiest ones to hit right you're looking for easy trades you're not looking for tricky tricky stuff when the majors are like this right you've got some uh pairs up some down some and they're all traded these bottom four are quoted against the dollar um as the base and these ones are the terms so it's there should be some uniformity here but there's not so i'm not going to look for trouble what i like is equity markets that are getting even though these are only small moves getting hit it gives me confidence to get into those instruments right if you're looking for um as i said the oil trade this this is definitely one to be keeping an eye on you can see the um the daily and weekly price fluctuations here of uh these these uh big oil companies and i've only just got a couple here um and companies that are associated with oil there's a lot of movement right but that volatility especially with clear direction gives you good trading opportunities so don't forget to look at those um to me crypto is just at the moment not exactly it's not the major focus of global markets right and there's a bit of a mixed interest here across the board on global equities but the u.s equity markets if you're in the north american session or europe keep an eye on what news is coming out from the central banks it is directly impacting the equity markets obviously related to interest rates and that's where i think the easiest trades are at the moment oil and u.s equity indices in particular all right hopefully that hasn't confused you if it has post a uh message up there i'll try and answer it but that's that's where we are don't go looking for just your usual stuff right have a look at something like this data page here and work out uh where the easiest trade is right it's as simple as that last thing you want to just connect with on that page is just keep an eye on the on the uh fundamentals i mean we have a big week for sterling this week see see if they're impacting or connecting and the thing with sterling at the moment the currency is so far away from anywhere that i just don't feel comfortable getting in with momentum because there's like there's no clear entry or exit levels it's just whipping around the place but that will change and may come with those with that with the upcoming data so make sure you look across the board keep an eye on the fundamentals keep an eye on the global markets work out where the easiest trade is and you're halfway there all right guys have a good one cheerio