The real story behind Xi’s Moscow visit

On May 7th, Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow to attend Russia's military parade marking the 80th anniversary of World War II victory. On the surface, this looked like a grand diplomatic moment. Western media framed it as proof of an unshakable China-Russia alliance, one that can stand firm against U.S. pressure. And the New York Times ran the headline, Putin and Xi rebucked U.S. and vowed to strengthen ties. And Reuters went even further. Friends of steel, Xi and Putin pledged to stand together against the U.S. But are they really friends of steel? My take is a little different. But let's start with what Xi Jinping didn't get from Putin because that alone tells us everything. So on the evening of May 7th, Xi Jinping landed in Moscow. According to Xinhua News, this was his 45th meeting with Putin in 13 years. Now, that's nearly four times a year if you exclude the COVID years when Xi Jinping didn't travel overseas. They're supposedly best buddies. That's what Xi Jinping calls Putin. At the airport, Xi Jinping issued a written statement. Quote, in the face of a turbulent and intertwined international situation, China and Russia will join hands to oppose hegemony and power politics. That was a thinly veiled jab at the United States and a clear signal that Xi Jinping came to Moscow with the hope to rope Putin into confronting Washington together. And the next day, China and Russia held small and large-scale talks for, I think, a total of seven hours. And Xi Jinping said both countries should, quote, stay the course on cooperation and resist external interference. But Putin didn't echo that tone. Instead, he emphasized that the Russia-China relationship is based on equality, mutual benefit, respect for each other's interests, and sovereignty, and is not directed against any third party. Translation, Putin wasn't about to join Xi Jinping's anti-U.S. crusade. And Moscow wants China's money, not its battles. While Putin wasn't interested in picking a fight with the U.S., he was more than happy to talk business with Xi Jinping. In his speech, he talked extensively about economic collaborations. So he highlighted that in 2024, trade between U.S. and Russia hit almost $250 billion. And they had 86 joint projects that's worth $200 billion U.S. dollars. And Russia is now China's top supplier of oil and pipeline gas and a major supplier of coal and natural gas. And Russian nuclear power plants are being built in China. And also Russia has become top export destination for Chinese cars. But here's what really caught my attention. Russian media revealed that Putin wants China to relocate more of its industrial production to Russia. In exchange, Russia would export more grain to China. Sounds like a good deal? Well, not really. What Putin wants is a win-win situation in which he wins twice. So transferring production capacity to Russia suggests that Putin is neither satisfied nor fully trusting Beijing's current level of support. So he's worried that under U.S. pressure, China may cut off military aid to Russia. If the factories are built on Russian soil, that would strip Xi Jinping of the ability to maintain a neutral international image. And even in an extreme situation, Putin could even seize Chinese factories, equipment, and other properties. So from an economic standpoint, the request isn't a friendly one. It will worsen China's current economic difficulties. Putin isn't looking for China's access production capability of things like solar panels or shoes or clothing or toys. He wants capacity related to drones, machinery, vehicles, and AI applications. But these are precisely the strategic sectors Beijing counts on to create jobs and generate tax revenue domestically. Now Putin is asking China to shift them to Russia, which would siphon off employment and fiscal income from China. As a trade-off, Russia offers to export more grain to China. Basically, they offer to make up for the shortfall caused by reduced imports from the U.S. Now China relies on the U.S. for soybeans and corns. But Russia is a major wheat producer and doesn't produce enough soybeans and corns to replace the U.S. And also American soybeans and corns are the best in the world in terms of quality, consistency, and price competitiveness. So for China, importing Russian soybeans and corns doesn't make sense at all. So you see, Putin's offer to Xi Jinping creates a win-win situation. And like I said, it's a situation in which Russia wins twice. So Putin's demand is clear. Move your factories to my territory. Let your employment and revenue feed my economy. And in return, I'll sell you wheat. That's not a partnership. That's a leverage. On the afternoon of May 8, Xi Jinping and Putin had tea together at the Kremlin. And Xinhua reported that they discussed Ukraine and exchanged views on a peace agreement. But here's the strange part. The Kremlin said nothing. There's no mentioning of Ukraine. No confirmation that the topic even came up. And the silence says a lot. But Russia likely wants to keep China out of the Ukraine peace process and deal directly with the U.S. and NATO. Even during formal talks earlier the day, they didn't mention the war. Neither side mentioned the war. And also, after the meeting, Xi Jinping and Putin did face the press. But again, the Kremlin downplayed it, saying that the two leaders simply made statements. And in Putin's statement, he stressed that the two countries, quote, pursue independent foreign policies. So in short, Russia wants benefits from both Washington and Beijing. The U.S. can walk away, but China cannot. So Beijing is being played. They also issued three joint statements. And in my opinion, they're all optics, no substance. They issued two short statements, or two short joint statements, and one long one. The long joint statement had a 73-character title. The English translation of that long Chinese title has 53 words. Let's just call it the rant statement. I think this statement is what the Chinese wanted, and the Russians just played along. It was full of chest-thumping. So it says things like, we want World War II. You want, I want, we both want big. And it slams against Japan for distorting history. It made accusations toward Europe for denying the Soviet Union's image as liberators. And of course, complaints about U.S. tariffs. But here's the ultimate irony. If Putin really wanted to honor World War II history, he should issue a joint statement with Taiwan and not Beijing. Because it was the Republic of China, the ROC, and not PRC, that was a World War II victor. And ROC was the country that signed the 1943 Cairo Declaration, and also the 1945 Potsdam. And also, ROC was the country, or one of the countries, that helped found the United Nations and became a permanent member. The PRC didn't even exist yet. It was the ROC and the Nationalist Army that fought the Japanese, while the CCP army was in hiding. So for the CCP to claim the credit of World War II victory is a joke. But anyways, the two shorter statements were not signed by Xi Jinping or Putin. Their representatives did. So what did we really get from this summit? Well, I think there's red carpet, a fancy parade, and a bunch of symbolic documents. Just like Xi Jinping's visit to Vietnam recently, the host put on a good show, signed a stack of papers, and let the world believe that the visit was a diplomatic triumph. But beneath all the pageantry, the truth is, I'm afraid, this. Putin wants Chinese factories and money, but not Chinese fights. He gave Xi Jinping nothing on the US, nothing on Ukraine, and nothing of real strategic value.