Kim Jong Un's Mysterious China Visit: Six Clues to a Bigger Crisis

So it started on October the 18th, okay. It was a sensational rumor circulating in the overseas Chinese community which says that Kim Jong-un was dead. It was released by a Chinese dissident living in the U.S. and he claimed that Kim had suffered a massive brain hemorrhage being rushed to Beijing for emergency treatment and died there. His body had been secretly returned to North Korea. There was no evidence to support the story, but it spread like a wildfire because within days, international media outlets, including Britain's The Sun, America's New York Post, and India's Economic Times, and there may be a few others, they were reporting on the allegations. Now, when this many foreign media outlets report a baseless Chinese rumor, it looks a little suspicious to me. And I'll explain that later. And then the speculation quickly escalated. There were even claims that Kim's powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, had secretly taken control. But people wonder, what about his 13-year-old daughter, Kim Joo Ai? Would she succeed him? Because she is the chosen heir. And what role would Beijing play in a possible leadership transition? Well, North Korea responded by releasing photographs and videos or video footage showing Kim attending an apparel clothing and footwear exhibit in Pyongyang on October the 19th. And he appeared to be conducting business as usual. And he was with his wife and daughter. And then on the 23rd, South Korea's National Intelligence Service reportedly dismissed the death rumors as false. You would think that would settle the matter. But the very next day, Kim Jong-un crossed the border into China. Before I share my analysis, I want to show you six unusual details about his visit. So let's look at them one by one. The first one was that there was no advance announcement. Normally, when a foreign head of state visits China, Beijing announces the trip days or even weeks in advance. But this time, neither Beijing nor Pyongyang announced anything beforehand. Kim simply showed up in Guangdong. The visit had all the appearances of a last-minute arrangement. Second, Kim didn't go to Beijing, and he didn't meet Xi Jinping. Now you have to understand, he had visited China five times before. On every occasion, he met Xi Jinping. Four of those meetings took place in Beijing. The only exception was May 2018, when Kim returned to China just two months before he was in Beijing earlier. And this trip was timed before his historic summit with Donald Trump. That time he met Xi Jinping in Dalian, a coastal city in northeastern China. Xi Jinping was already visiting Dalian, and the location was convenient for Kim as well. So even though he didn't go to Beijing, Xi Jinping personally received him. Now, you have to understand, Kim Jong-un isn't a leader who has many countries to visit. Since taking power, there are only three countries that have hosted him on formal bilateral visits, and they were China, Russia, and Vietnam. He also traveled to Singapore for his summit with Donald Trump, but that wasn't a state visit. So for Kim, a visit to China is a major diplomatic occasion and it's not something he undertakes casually. But this October visit was very different. For the first time since taking power, he visited China without meeting Xi Jinping and without going to Beijing. Instead, he settled on meeting in a border town. That was the second unusual point. Third, he traveled by car. Kim Jong-un is famous for his heavily armored train. That's his preferred mode of transportation for long distance journeys. Of his previous five trips to China, he traveled three times by train and twice by private aircraft. But this time, he crossed the border by automobile. It was the first time he had entered China by car as North Korea's leader. Now traveling by car offers one obvious advantage, flexibility. Arranging a trip by armored train or aircraft requires extensive advanced coordination, including security arrangements along railway lines or flight routes. A car trip across the border can be organized more easily. So could that suggest the visit was arranged on relatively short notice? Okay, fourth, it was his shortest visit to China. His previous five visits lasted between two and four days. This time, he spent only a few hours in Dandong before returning to North Korea on the same day. What was so important that Kim needed to cross the border personally, yet could apparently be accomplished in just a few hours? It's contradictory for a communist leader like Kim Jong-un. All right. My fifth point is he visited an automobile factory. Now, this is an interesting detail many people have ignored. In December 2017, the U.N. Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2397. It prohibits member states from supplying automobiles and other transportation vehicles to North Korea. China voted in favor of that resolution. Yet one of Kim's stops in Dandong was an automobile factory. Why would Kim visit a factory making items he can't really legally get? It's almost like a man with a drinking problem who is ordered not to get close to alcohols now go to China to visit a winery. Even if Kim is attached to this quote-unquote alcohol and insists visiting, his host, Beijing, should know it's very sensitive. Okay, my last point is that he was received by Wang Huning, not Xi Jinping. This may be the most interesting detail of all. Now, according to South Korea's National Intelligence Service, Kim was originally expected to meet Chinese Premier Li Qiang. And then on the 24th, South Korean lawmaker, I think his name is Yoon Kung Young, he even announced that Kim had met Li Qiang. But later that day, he issued a correction, the South Korean lawmaker. South Korean intelligence had received additional information. Li Qiang was supposed to travel to Dandong, but the arrangement had changed. Instead, Kim was received by Wang Huning. All of this raises an important question. Was this an urgent meeting arranged outside the usual diplomatic schedule? So, that brings us to another question. Who really wanted this meeting? Who really initiated this meeting? Beijing or Pyongyang? My suspicion is that the initiative didn't come from Beijing. Here's why. If Beijing had urgently requested a meeting with Kim, I would have expected Kim to make demands about the arrangements. After all, he would have been doing Beijing a favor. He could have insisted on meeting Xi Jinping as he had on his previous five visits, or at least demanded a more substantial reception in Beijing instead, but he didn't get that. What could have been so important that Kim Jong-un needed to cross the border into China personally, yet Xi Jinping didn't meet him? First, you have to understand the timing. October 24th was an extremely inconvenient day for Beijing to receive a foreign leader. It was just two days before the Fifth Plenum, when more than 200 members and alternate members of the party's central committee would gather in Beijing to discuss the country's political direction and future of and the future of party leadership. So in my view the different political factions would be busy negotiating, maneuvering, and preparing for what could be a major political showdown. And Xi Jinping was Certainly busy. And this was hardly the ideal moment to host Kim Jong-un. Now, you have to understand something about Kim's relationship with Beijing. Even though North Korea has moved much closer to Russia in recent years, Kim still depends heavily on China economically. Beijing still remains Pyongyang's most important trading partner and a crucial source of economic support. So China could simply have told him, let's finish the fifth plenum first. Then we'll arrange a proper visit for you. But Kim came anyway. He didn't get his usual red carpet reception. He didn't travel aboard his armored train. He didn't visit Xi Jinping. I mean, he didn't meet Xi Jinping. So why was he willing to accept such an unusual arrangement? First and foremost, he was trying to dispel the rumors about his death or health. That's what most people think. That's certainly possible. And it's very possible. But if his only purpose was to prove that he was alive and healthy, why go to China? North Korea could have arranged another highly publicized appearance in Pyongyang. Kim could have attended a military event, delivered a speech, or appeared before a large crowd. Second, was Kim facing a political crisis at home? Remember, when the rumors of his death spread, there was also speculation that his powerful sister had secretly taken over. But here's something interesting. Pictures from the visit for his visit show that the sister, Kim Yo Jong, was part of the delegation accompanying his brother to Dandong. Now, if she really were leading an effort to remove him, would Kim have brought her along on an overseas visit? That wouldn't be possible, right? I think Kim Kim's real concern may have been the Fifth Plenum itself, not APEC, not the rumors about his health. He was concerned about political developments inside Beijing and Zhongnanhai. Think about it. Kim has enormous stake in who controls the Chinese Communist Party and what direction its leadership takes. China isn't another diplomatic partner for North Korea. It's Pyongyang's economic lifeline. An indispensable political backer, a significant change in Beijing's leadership or even a major shift in the balance of power within the CCP could have enormous consequences for Kim and his regime. So with the fifth plenum just two days away, Kim may have already heard something or even way before that, and perhaps he was very eager to find out exactly what was going on. Was Xi Jinping's authority secure? Were important personnel changes being discussed? Was there a struggle over the party's future leadership? These are questions Kim would have every reason to care about. And if he believed something consequential was about to happen, waiting until the meeting was over might not have been good enough for him. He would want to know before the decisions were made public. And he might have believed that sending a representative to Beijing wouldn't get him the information he needed. He would have to go himself for a confidential high-level briefing. And so that brings us to Wang Huning, the official who met him. Now, Wang isn't another senior official. Like I said, he is one of CCP's most senior political strategists. If Kim wanted insight into Beijing's internal political calculations, There was no need to send. Because both could be very busy at the moment. Wang Huning could deliver the message. Now, I want to be clear. We don't know what Kim and Wang discussed privately, and we have no direct evidence that Kim came to China to ask about Xi Jinping's political future. But this interpretation could explain several unusual aspects of the visit. Why there was no advance announcement, right? Why Kim came at such an inconvenient time? Why he was willing to meet Wang Huning rather than Xi Jinping. Why the meeting took place in Dandong, near the border, rather than Beijing. And why the entire trip lasted only a few hours. Maybe Kim wasn't there for a ceremonial visit, but he came for information. A brief confidential exchange with someone who understands the inner workings of CCP's leadership. And once he had what he needed, he went home. But you may say, well, what about the automobile factory? Well, that was presented as part of the diplomatic program highlighting economic operation. I find it difficult to believe that touring a car factory was the urgent reason Kim personally crossed the border just two days before the Fifth Plenum. I think it's largely for show, for cover-up, and precisely because the local activities in Dandong may not have been the main purpose of the visit. Perhaps the people arranging the itinerary didn't give every detail sufficient thought. If Beijing's top leaders were so busy preparing for the Fifth Plenum, why agree to receive Kim at all? And that brings us back to the death rumors. What if the death rumors themselves help make this unusual meeting possible? Remember, like I said, the rumors originated in the overseas Chinese community. If Beijing was uncomfortable with such a rushed visit, it may have worried about the international speculation the trip would generate. A sudden, hours-long meeting between Kim and one of China's most powerful political figures just two days before the plenum would naturally raise questions. But once the rumors of Kim's death were circulating worldwide, his sudden appearance in China could be interpreted very differently. Now, instead of focusing entirely on the political significance of this urgent but short meeting, much of the attention would go to Kim proving he was alive. That leads to an even more provocative possibility. Could the rumors have been deliberately encouraged to provide a convenient public explanation for Kim Jong-un's sudden visit? And if so, could someone on the Chinese side have had a role in spreading them? I think it's a political possibility. It's something I think worth examining. Now, I mentioned how Western media outlets quickly reported the rumor. Here's my thinking. They're not supposed to be covering this crazy rumor. Western media outlets do not, generally do not cover Chinese political rumors until they can be proven. So whenever they do cover, These crazy rumors, I suspect some forces in Beijing is involved. Think about it. Without the rumors, such a short, unusual visit by Kim Jong-un might have attracted even more attention to the private meeting itself. With the rumors, the public narrative became much simpler. Kim Jong-un was alive. He had appeared in China and the two countries. Or the two countries arranged the meeting to show that the rumor was false. Thank you so much for watching. If you're new here, please hit subscribe. Don't forget to give my video a like. If you want me to answer your questions directly, please join my live every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday at 9 p.m. Eastern Time. I'd love to chat with you there.