Trump JUST Flipped the Housing Market [-25%!!]

Hey everyone, me Kevin here. Donald Trump may have just flipped the housing market and it's really important for you to understand A, how this could affect your housing market and B, what some strategies might be for you to get to the next level in real estate wealth. Keep in mind, I've been doing real estate for 15 years. I'm a big fan of buying cheap real estate below market value real estate and protecting myself with a fat insulative layer I call buying in the wedge. But we talk a lot about that on the channel. For now, let's just talk about what's going on and these warnings that we're getting from companies like DR Horton, how realistic are they? What's going on with pricing and what do you need to know about the post Trump election housing market? Well, let's get started. So first we're going to look backwards a little bit. We're going to look for these yellow lines here to get the median sales prices of homes in various different metro areas. And so what you'll find is an area like Atlanta, Georgia has already seen prices drop by about 6.7% from its peak around the beginning of the month, beginning of 2024. So right around March and April, we saw a surge in home prices, which we seasonally tend to see anyway. Most buyers buy March and April to about that June season before people go back to school. And pricing is usually at its lowest when you're in those winter months. So October, November, January, February, March, not so much March. That's when it starts turning around. So ending in February when the snow starts melting off, those are buy times and you tend to see this seasonally. But it's worth noting that from peak, we're down in Georgia. From peak, we're also down in San Diego. Average price or rather median price down to $8.89 from $9.49 at peak this summer. Also about a 6.4% decline. Both of these markets though, higher prices in 2024 than what we saw in 2023 and two and previously like 2021. The same can't be said though about Boise, Idaho. Boise, Idaho, you've actually seen a significant correction in real estate prices. Look at this. Median sales price of $546,000 in that early March, April season. I know this says May, but remember it takes about 60, 30, 60 days for homes to close. So I always adjust by about one to two months prior to that for when the sales actually took place to when they close. But anyway, you went from $546,000 to a present price of about $476,000. That represents a peak to trough difference of almost 13% in Boise. A lot of this, by the way, is probably because of what I call the post COVID boom, where you have COVID markets that promised freedom and freedom from restraints like what you had in California, work from home opportunities, which you didn't really get a lot of in California because people were leaving to be free outside and work from home. Why pay California prices if you can work from home anywhere else, right? That's the idea. So people moved to Florida and Boise or Austin, Texas, and a lot of that excess demand led to a bubbling up of prices in these markets and a subsequent sort of return to the median. You can see here 2021, two, three, and four prices, all relatively consolidated around this range, somewhat suggesting that maybe a bottom is in for some of the COVID markets, which actually presents an opportunity for you. If you could start thinking about buying in this consolidation and picking up the bottom, right? Let's look at Austin, Texas. You'll actually see with the exception of the last couple of weeks here, Austin, Texas has had lower prices in almost all of 2024 compared to any of the prior years here. Austin, Texas is a perfect example of sort of this COVID bubble that has popped $435,000 divided by $574,000. That puts you down almost 25% in pricing from peak in Austin, Texas, but look, you're consolidating now at almost that low level that we saw at the end of 23 and in this consolidated range here, suggesting again, maybe a bottom is finally in. Nationwide, you'll actually find that outside of just those COVID markets, like a Boise or an Austin or parts of Florida, you'll actually find that real estate median sale prices are higher than if any year prior, likely just because of the inflation that we've been seeing. And therefore, as real estate tends to be an inflationary hedge, we see real estate prices float up with it. So what does this mean for us and what warnings are being made out there? Well, some of them have to do with DR Horton and DR Horton's warns in their earnings call about volatility because of uncertainty around the election season, though, even though they are concerned about that volatility, they're still seeing strong demand. They're just finding buyers are worried about the election. In fact, they say it here. We believe the volatility of rates combined with general uncertainty during the election season is causing some buyers to stay on the sidelines. But something that's really important to remember, which might not be really evident, is a lot of folks talking about these warnings from DR Horton refer to the DR Horton earnings call that took place at the end of October, which took place before the election. Now, why does that matter? Because things have massively flipped since this earnings call. And I want to tell you how things have changed. But first, quick shout out, meetkevin.com, pre-sale on the new Trumponomics course, teach you everything about stocks, real estate, advanced tax strategies, basic tax strategies, everything for just $2.99 in a course that gives you a full plan for 2025 under Trump on how to make money. The course is on pre-sale right now for Black Friday, comes out December 17th. You get trade alerts, you get course member live streams, real estate analysis, tax analysis, a lot of perspective. As a financial advisor, the course isn't personalized tax legal or financial advice for you, but I'm going to cater it around exactly what I see most people need the most help with. And boy, you're going to have a lot of resources here. So do check this out, consider pre-ordering that. I have also, by the way, if you go to the pre-order page, I have brought back the options to shadow me. So if you're interested in shadowing me, you could actually go to the Black Friday special to shadow me. Plus one is also an option if you want to bring someone along, but we've got a Black Friday special to shadow me as I look for real estate in person. Think of it like a real estate consultation in person, where I take you out as we go look at real estate, feel free to come join us. So anyway, that's over at meetkevin.com. Okay. So continuing though, what has flipped after the Trump election? Well, not interest rates. Interest rates have gone up substantially since Donald Trump was elected, but I suspect in 2025, interest rates are going to plummet mostly as the job market weakens. Now it's possible that the job market will strengthen over the next couple of months. I don't think it will, but it's possible that it will. And if it does, then interest rates will stay high and continue to pressure real estate. But if I'm right and we continue or start seeing even worse job reports, that's going to be a really important signal for you to do two important things. And no, neither of those are going to meet kevin.com and checking out on the Trump course for 299 or shadowing me. You can do that though. No, the two things that you got to do have to do with a home equity line of credit and consider buying. But I want to tell you when to consider buying first though, if you already own real estate, I highly encourage you set up a home equity line of credit as soon as possible. Some of your local lenders and community banks will offer home equity lines of credit that let you take up to 90% of equity out of your property. Now I don't recommend that you over leverage real estate ever, but what I recommend you do is you set up the optionality with a home equity line of credit to take advantage of investment opportunities that come up in fixer upper real estate or business opportunities or otherwise. So that way, if we do end up heading into a slower time, you have access to additional capital. Usually it's very difficult to actually get a credit line in a tough time, like a recession. But if you set up the credit line beforehand or you draw it before they potentially get frozen, you have access to extra capital that could be a game changer for you in terms of business flexibility. And home equity lines of credit can be a tax write off. If the debt follows a business purpose or rental property investment, those are just the kinds of tax strategies we'll be talking about by the way, in the Trumponomics course. So I really think everybody wants to be part of Trumponomics, whether you're a beginner in college, you're just getting started, or you've already got an advanced net worth. This is not going to be a course you're going to want to miss because it's just going to streamline you on what to do under Trump at 2025. But as far as home equity line of credit, I highly encourage you have one in place. Now I know rates are high today, but you don't have to pay the interest rates today because you don't have to draw the line, just establish it. Pay for the appraisal, sometimes you can get that free, and pay the annual renewal fee for the HELOCs, but have the home equity line of credit in place and only use it when it makes sense to, since they're variable, the interest rates can come down. You can generally use them like a credit card, you could draw on them and pay them off for about a 10 year period. And after that 10 year period, they lock and then you amortize them, which means fully pay them off over 20 years with a fixed interest payment or fixed payment. Every line depends whether you end up getting a variable or a fixed term, talk to your banker on that one. But having a credit line and having that optionality I think is a great idea, I think everybody who already owns real estate should consider that. Remember, you can get them as a second loan after your mortgage as well, so you don't have to get rid of your mortgage to tap that equity out. Now another thing to consider I think is potentially buying the dip in the winter months. I'm a really big fan of buying the dip in the winter, I love buying real estate in the winter, and here's what I'm seeing right now. Exclusive, luxury level real estate, higher end real estate is exploding right now post Trump because people think, yes, the business environment is going to be great, let's buy real estate. A lot of that uncertainty has turned into enthusiasm, and so people are actually buying more now than they were right before the election, they were really waiting for the election to pass. And now you're seeing more buying in real estate, and frankly a lot of luxury real estate, even luxury development opportunities, probably have popped up a lot because of the Trump election. However, you're still seeing problems and pain in the lower end market. This is going to be in your mid-fours to $600,000 range. These buyers are really tapped out, which does mean you're seeing more price compression in the lower end, which won't necessarily show up in the market data, but that lower end is having more compression, not only in rent values, but also in sales values, which does potentially create some opportunities to buy the dip if you can negotiate a really good deal. Keep in mind, in that Trump course, I'll also be teaching you how to negotiate these deals, so you want to be a part of that. But I think there are plenty of opportunities to buy deals, especially even considering some of these COVID markets, where I think we might be close to a bottom in some of these COVID markets, which creates exciting opportunities. Now, I don't think you're going to have a huge rush, even as interest rates come down. If interest rates come down substantially, it's probably because we're going into a recessionary environment. So I'm not too terribly worried about this feeling that, oh my gosh, like if you don't buy now, you're going to be screwed and you're going to miss out. I don't think you're going to see that sort of COVID bubbling up again, but whatever happens, I'll keep you updated with tax policies and what's going on with Trump in that Trumponomics course. So make sure you're part of that. Again, pre-order it now. The content will be out on the 17th. But really, think about getting started. How do you get started? Limit your debt. Don't buy a new car right now. Don't finance new things right now. Keep your debt to income free and available to go shop for real estate so you can qualify for that real estate. Even though interest rates are high right now, if you could get a really good deal, it might be worth paying the higher rate. You might just have to put a little bit more down to make it make sense for you. Anyway, these are some of my thoughts on the real estate market. And really, I think there's a good chance here Trump has flipped the real estate market to the better. I don't see another 2008 in real estate. I do see another 2003 where we have a valuation correction in the stock market. But I think the real estate market will be relatively insulated from this. And I think lower rates are just going to benefit asset owners. Like Househack.com. If you're an accredited investor, we're actually offering a 5% yield on convertible bonds right now at Househack. And the reason they're convertible is because if we go public in the future, which we hope to, you'll get 100% of the stock upside by investing in those bonds at Househack.com. That's a game changer. It's an accredited offering right now. Hope to have a non-accredited in the future, but check that out at Househack.com. For now though, really, what do you want to think about? COVID bubble markets may be at a bottom, number one. Number two, if you own real estate, get a home equity line of credit. Number three, keep your debt and expenses low and save up cash so that way you can go buy the debt. You don't have to buy everything. You really just need one good deal. Go grab a good deal. Get to work. It's totally worth owning real estate, in my opinion, is the best way to build wealth. Next, having a higher income, building wealth through real estate, it's an absolute game changer. I'll teach you all the tips and tricks, not only on the channel, so make sure to subscribe, but over at meetkevin.com and the Trumponomics group. Thanks so much for watching. We'll see y'all soon. Thanks. Goodbye. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. Kevin Paffrath there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.