THIS IS EPIC! The World’s MOST POWERFUL ROCKET Finally Returns From 3-Year Hiatus!

With only a few hours left, SpaceX's Falcon Heavy will take flight for the first time since June of 2019, ending a long period of inactivity for the world's most powerful rocket in operation. Under the power of 27 Merlin engines in its first stage, the rocket will carry two space technology payloads into orbit for the U.S. Space Force, marking the first fully operational national security mission to fly on SpaceX's heavy lifter. Interestingly enough, the USSF-44 launch will also be SpaceX's first direct-to-GEO mission, which means the powerful Falcon Heavy rocket will launch its payload directly into a geostationary orbit nearly 36,000 kilometers above the Earth's surface. Ahead of this much-awaited flight, it is natural to ask why it has been more than 40 months since the rocket last flew. And perhaps more importantly, does this suggest that the Falcon Heavy, developed internally at SpaceX at the company's own expense for half a billion dollars, was a mistake? Let's find out more in today's episode of Great SpaceX. The long gap between flights has not occurred due to a shortage of Falcon Heavy rockets. At its essence, the Falcon Heavy consists of a core stage that is a modified version of a Falcon 9's first stage, and two side-mounted boosters that are somewhat less modified. There are other structural adaptations, but basically, SpaceX could manufacture and reuse hardware for just about as many Falcon Heavy rockets as the market desires. It's just that, well, there has not been an overwhelming desire. To put the demand for Falcon Heavy into perspective, in the 40 months since the last Heavy launch, SpaceX has flown the Falcon 9 rocket 111 times. That doesn't mean that there is 100 times the demand for the Falcon 9, but it suggests that by continuing to improve the performance of the single-core Falcon rocket, SpaceX eroded some of the potential market for Falcon Heavy when it was designed about a decade ago. However, there is still demand. As of late, the problem has been delayed payloads. The USSF-44 mission was originally scheduled for December of 2020. Another Space Force mission on the Falcon Heavy, which is the 52, was originally supposed to fly in October of 2021. NASA's Psyche asteroid mission was supposed to fly in September but was delayed as well after the payload was deemed not ready. In reality, there is a reasonable amount of demand for a large rocket like the Falcon Heavy. On SpaceX's current manifest, there are 10 more Falcon Heavy missions between now and the end of 2024. Some of those may well get pushed back due to payload readiness, but there are customers out there. Who is buying? The short answer is the government. Including the USSF-44 mission, the next 10 most likely missions to fly on the Falcon Heavy include 5 flights for NASA, 3 for the US Space Force, and 2 primarily for commercial satellite customers. Fortunately, the US military is especially keen to see a proven Falcon Heavy. While the Falcon 9 rocket is powerful in its own right, it doesn't have the ability to hit all 9 of the Department of Defense's reference orbits required for its launch providers to hit. So, with the Falcon Heavy, SpaceX is at an advantage in terms of bidding on military launch contracts. The only other operational US rocket capable of this is United Launch Alliance's Delta IV Heavy rocket, but it is retiring in 2 years. Meanwhile, its replacement, the Vulcan Centaur, has yet to fly. SpaceX's forthcoming Starship and Super Heavy booster, of course, will be able to reach all 9 orbits. Although it's likely years away from a stable configuration required by the government, it's nevertheless on the way. According to Todd Harrison, Managing Director for Metria Strategic Insights, once SpaceX's new Super Heavy is operational and has a proven track record to assure national security customers, Falcon Heavy will no longer be needed. So, I suspect its useful life is perhaps less than 5 years and likely only a handful of launches during that time. But, it is a beauty to behold when it launches, especially when those side boosters return to land in sync. Falcon Heavy has also proven popular for some key NASA science missions, including the Psyche spacecraft, Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, and the Europa Clipper. But, perhaps the most remarkable aspect of NASA's decision to launch its expensive Europa mission on the Falcon Heavy rocket was its price. The total contract award amount for launch services was $178 million. This, in effect, saved US taxpayers $2 billion as the other launch vehicle under consideration by NASA, the Space Launch System, costs $2.2 billion per launch. However, the Falcon Heavy has not spurred the development of a rash of new science missions. NASA simply has not set up the science community to take advantage of a low-cost heavy-lift rocket, said Casey Dreyer, Space Policy Director for the Planetary Society. The incentive is just not there for scientists, he said. Primarily, mission planners and scientists are concerned about keeping the cost of the spacecraft down and controlling its mass. The decision on a launch vehicle is typically left to NASA and its launch services program. The Falcon Heavy really has not been around long enough to shake up the industry. Dreyer said there is a chance that the larger Starship vehicle, which will dramatically change mass and volume constraints for science missions, could eventually change how NASA selects science missions. But if Starship is the future the launch industry is headed for, then that means that the Falcon Heavy validated the approach. It was the first time a private company built and flew the most powerful rocket in the world. It proved that a vehicle with so many first-stage engines, 27, could fly. The video of two boosters landing side by side left a powerful imprint on the minds of the general public on the value of rocket reuse. Lori Garver, who was Deputy Administrator for NASA when SpaceX began working seriously to develop the Falcon Heavy, said the rocket changed the discussion among space policymakers of what commercial space can do. She only wishes that the discussion would change faster. The Europa Clipper launch moving from SLS to Falcon Heavy is a reality-based space policy decision, but we need more of those. Was the Falcon Heavy a mistake? Well, let's consider another rocket with three cores, the Delta IV Heavy operated by ULA. Before the Falcon Heavy came along, this was the only U.S. booster capable of hitting all of the desired orbits for the U.S. DoD, and was used for the heaviest NASA science missions. The Falcon Heavy has now supplanted all of those functions, and it flies at the cost of one-third to one-half that of the Delta IV Heavy. Since its debut flight back in 2004, the Delta IV Heavy has flown 14 times. It'll retire in two years mainly because it is expensive to operate, with a total of 16 launches. It seems plausible that the Falcon Heavy will more than exceed that total in half the time before eventually giving way to Starship. So, by this measure alone, the Falcon Heavy was not a mistake. Rather, it was a glimpse into the future. Thank you so much for watching, and hey, remember, you can support us by becoming a patron through our Patreon link in the description below. Otherwise, as always, this is Kevin with GreatSpaceX, and my team and I will see you next time.