Exit polling shows Catholic voters split almost evenly between the parties after supporting President Donald Trump in 2024, while Protestants remained predominantly Republican and religiously unaffiliated voters strongly favored Democrats.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
WASHINGTON — Catholic voters shifted away from Republicans in Tuesday’s midterm elections, dividing almost evenly between Democrats and Republicans after delivering majority support to President Donald Trump in 2024, according to national exit polling that revealed significant differences in voting preferences across religious groups.
The NBC News exit polls found that 50% of Catholic voters supported Democratic congressional candidates, compared with 49% who voted Republican, marking a substantial change from the presidential election two years earlier.
The results represent a setback for Republicans among a voting population that accounted for approximately one-fifth of the 2026 midterm electorate.
According to a Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters published in June 2025, Trump received 55% of the Catholic vote in the 2024 presidential election, compared with 43% for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
The latest findings indicate a narrowing of the Republican advantage among Catholic voters, although comparisons between presidential and congressional elections involve different candidates, turnout patterns and political circumstances.
The shift was particularly significant because Catholics have historically represented an important constituency for both major political parties.
Previous Pew Research Center examinations of Catholic voting patterns identified the group as politically competitive, with voting preferences influenced by economic circumstances, religious beliefs and differences among demographic groups.
Religious voting patterns in 2026 nevertheless remained sharply divided.
Approximately 59% of self-identified Protestants supported Republicans, according to NBC’s polling, reflecting the party’s continued strength among Protestant voters.
Democrats performed particularly well among Americans without a religious affiliation, receiving approximately 78% of their votes.
That group includes atheists, agnostics and individuals who identify with no particular religion.
According to Religion News Service’s analysis of the 2026 election, religiously unaffiliated voters increased their share of the electorate from approximately 24% in 2024 to 27% in 2026.
Their overwhelming support for Democrats contributed to the party’s congressional victories, which secured control of both the House and Senate.
The same analysis found that approximately 60% of Protestant voters supported Republican candidates, compared with roughly 63% in 2024.
White evangelical Protestants remained among the Republican Party’s most reliable constituencies. Approximately 82% continued supporting Republicans, while Black Protestants voted overwhelmingly Democratic.
The results demonstrate that religious affiliation alone does not determine political preferences. Differences involving race, ethnicity, religious attendance and economic circumstances also influence how Americans vote.
Political scientist Ryan Burge attributed much of the electoral shift to dissatisfaction with economic conditions and the Trump administration rather than changes in religious beliefs.
“I don’t particularly think it was a religious election,” Burge told Religion News Service. “I think it was pretty much an economic election, inflation election, a dissatisfaction with Trump election.”
Economic concerns were prominent among religious voters before the election.
An October Pew Research Center survey found that majorities across religious traditions considered the economy highly important to their congressional choices.
Among Catholics, 87% identified the economy as very important. Similar concerns were expressed by 89% of Black Protestants, 83% of White mainline Protestants and 81% of White evangelical Protestants.
The pre-election survey also showed important differences within the Catholic population. White Catholic registered voters favored Republican congressional candidates, while Hispanic Catholic registered voters were considerably more likely to support Democrats.
Those differences help explain why shifts in turnout and voting preferences among specific Catholic communities can affect the overall national result.
The 2026 findings also illustrate how economic conditions and broader public dissatisfaction can alter voting patterns even among groups with established partisan tendencies.
Exit polling provides estimates based on surveyed voters rather than a complete count of ballots by religious affiliation. The findings may also be revised as additional survey responses are processed.
Nevertheless, the near-even Catholic vote represents a substantial change from Trump’s majority support among Catholics in 2024.
With Democrats preparing to assume control of Congress, the results identify Catholic voters and religiously unaffiliated Americans as important components of the coalition that contributed to Tuesday’s Democratic victories.
For Republicans, the findings highlight a reduction in support among some religious voters who backed Trump two years earlier, while the party’s continued strength among Protestants underscores the persistent religious divisions within the American electorate.
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