Powerful El Niño Could Bring Warmer Winter, Heavy Rain and Less Snow to Much of U.S.

Federal forecasters expect a warmer-than-normal winter across much of the country, with increased precipitation potentially easing drought conditions in the West while raising flooding risks in California and reducing snowfall across northern states.

By yourNEWS Media Newsroom

A powerful El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean is expected to reshape America’s winter weather, bringing increased rainfall to southern states, milder temperatures across much of the country and potentially disappointing snowfall totals in traditionally snowy northern regions.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter outlook, released Thursday, October 15, projects that unusually warm Pacific waters will influence temperature and precipitation patterns from December 2026 through February 2027.

Forecasters expect above-normal temperatures across much of the northern United States, while wetter conditions could provide significant drought relief in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains and portions of the East.

However, the same weather pattern could increase the likelihood of flooding, landslides and severe storms in vulnerable regions.

“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” said National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.

“While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.”

The outlook favors warmer-than-average conditions across portions of 41 states, with no region showing an increased probability of below-normal seasonal temperatures.

The strongest warming signals extend across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Midwest, Mississippi Valley and much of the eastern United States.

Florida and portions of the southeastern states are expected to experience temperatures closer to seasonal averages. Forecasters assigned equal chances of above-normal, near-normal or below-normal temperatures to areas including Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and parts of Southern California.

Snowfall patterns could prove especially disappointing for residents of the Northeast, Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.

According to The Associated Press, private forecasting company AccuWeather expects Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia to receive approximately half or less of their typical winter snowfall.

Salt Lake City is the only major metropolitan area where AccuWeather anticipates above-average snowfall, although parts of the Southern Rockies could also experience increased snow activity.

James Belanger, vice president of meteorology for the Weather Company, said enthusiasts hoping for consistently snowy conditions in northern regions may face a frustrating season.

“This is going to be a winter that’s really difficult for them to find what they’re looking for,” Belanger said.

Despite the warmer forecast, federal meteorologists emphasized that seasonal averages do not eliminate the possibility of severe winter storms.

“Listen, even in the winter months, it doesn’t mean you’re not going to have snow. It doesn’t mean you might not have a snowstorm,” Graham said.

“So it doesn’t erase the risk.”

AccuWeather lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok similarly warned that major East Coast snowstorms remain possible, particularly during late January and February.

“It only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities,” Pastelok said.

Precipitation forecasts indicate that portions of 39 states could experience wetter-than-normal conditions, especially across the southern United States and along the Eastern Seaboard.

NOAA expects drought to improve or end across significant portions of the Southwest, southern Rockies, Southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley.

Western Oregon and Washington could also benefit from additional precipitation, although parts of the northern Rockies and Great Lakes are expected to be drier than normal.

California faces a different concern: potentially excessive rainfall from powerful atmospheric rivers.

These concentrated streams of atmospheric moisture can deliver enormous amounts of precipitation over short periods, sometimes producing flash flooding and dangerous landslides.

“We’d anticipate numerous, high-impact atmospheric rivers that could bring extensive flooding and landslides this winter,” said Weather Channel meteorologist Mike Bettes.

Forecasters also warned that El Niño conditions could increase the potential for tornado activity in Florida and portions of the Southeast during winter and early spring.

The developing El Niño is unusually strong, with some international forecasting agencies projecting record or near-record conditions.

El Niño occurs when unusually warm ocean temperatures develop in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, altering atmospheric circulation and influencing weather patterns worldwide.

Its effects are superimposed on longer-term warming trends. NOAA estimates that average U.S. winter temperatures have increased approximately 4 degrees Fahrenheit over the past 50 years, predominantly because of human-caused climate change.

Although strong El Niño events often make seasonal weather patterns more predictable, some researchers caution that the current event’s exceptional intensity could produce unexpected outcomes.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology research scientist Judah Cohen said the lack of close historical comparisons makes him reluctant to issue an early forecast.

“We have no real historical analog or precedent,” Cohen said.

“When every meteorologist on the planet is on the same side, I get nervous. We’re not that good.”

For Americans planning winter travel, outdoor activities or seasonal preparations, forecasters recommend monitoring shorter-term predictions rather than relying exclusively on broad seasonal outlooks.

While the overall pattern favors milder weather and increased precipitation, individual storms, Arctic outbreaks and flooding events remain possible throughout the winter.