A review of crime data from major American cities found sharp declines in homicides, burglaries, carjackings and aggravated assaults during the first half of 2026, although several cities recorded increases in deadly violence.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
The United States is on pace to record one of its lowest homicide totals in more than a century after killings fell sharply across a broad sample of American cities during the first half of 2026.
Homicides declined 18% from the same period in 2025 among 30 cities examined by the independent Council on Criminal Justice. The reduction amounted to approximately 215 fewer killings.
If the downward trajectory continues through December, the national homicide rate could fall to levels not seen in more than 100 years once final annual figures are compiled.
The improvement extended beyond homicide. The council tracked 13 categories of crime and found declines in nine, including aggravated assault, carjacking and residential burglary.
The findings indicate that the nationwide retreat from the violence surge that followed the COVID-19 pandemic has not only continued but has pushed several crime measures below their pre-2020 baselines.
“Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map in cities with different political leadership, different housing and economic conditions, different policing and prosecution and violence reduction strategies and different levels of federal enforcement activity,” said Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice.
The organization gathers information from police departments and other law enforcement agencies. The number of participating cities varied by category because some departments use different definitions or do not consistently report every offense.
Some categories included information from as many as 36 cities, while homicide figures were drawn from 30.
One of the most consequential findings involved the deadliness of violent encounters. The proportion of serious violent crimes resulting in death fell 23%, suggesting that violent incidents were substantially less likely to become fatal than during the same period a year earlier.
The decline means fewer assaults and other serious confrontations ended in homicide even when violence still occurred.
Residential burglaries fell 13% from 2025 and were approximately 50% lower than in 2019, before the pandemic-related disruption in crime patterns. Carjackings and aggravated assaults also continued moving downward.
The broader results were not uniformly positive. Reported shoplifting rose 5%, while domestic violence, sexual assault and drug offenses also registered modest increases.
Drug crimes nevertheless remained below their pre-pandemic level despite the year-over-year rise.
The decline in violent crime has become a point of emphasis for both Republicans and Democrats during the midterm election year. Political leaders from both parties have attempted to connect the improvements to their preferred public safety policies.
The pattern across cities, however, does not appear confined to one political party, policing model or governing philosophy. Crime declined in jurisdictions with conservative and liberal leadership, different economic conditions and widely varying approaches to prosecution, immigration enforcement and violence prevention.
That consistency suggests the most influential causes may be national or social rather than the result of one isolated local policy.
John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, said crime trends can differ considerably from one community to another because numerous local and national forces operate at the same time.
Conservative officials aligned with President Donald Trump may attribute the improvement to stronger immigration enforcement and National Guard deployments in cities such as Los Angeles and Memphis. Liberal officials may cite public safety legislation enacted under former President Joe Biden, including expanded background-check requirements for gun purchases.
Roman said the most persuasive explanations likely extend beyond any single president or administration.
Reduced drug use may have lowered the number of purchases conducted through illegal markets, where disputes frequently lead to violence. Federal funding distributed to local governments following the pandemic may also have helped sustain programs intended to reduce instability and prevent youth violence.
Some of that money supported teachers, social workers and other professionals who regularly interact with young people at elevated risk of committing violence or becoming victims.
Those investments may have helped restore community institutions that were disrupted during the pandemic and provided more supervision, employment assistance and intervention for vulnerable populations.
The national trend also concealed substantial differences among individual cities.
Roughly one-third of the 30 cities included in the homicide analysis reported more killings in the first half of 2026 than during the corresponding period in 2025.
Norfolk, Virginia, recorded a 64% increase, while San Francisco experienced a 55% rise.
Longer-term comparisons were considerably more favorable. Only Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh and Minneapolis recorded more homicides during the first half of 2026 than during the same period in 2019.
That means most of the cities examined had fewer killings than before the pandemic despite short-term increases in some locations.
The variation illustrates why national improvements do not necessarily reflect conditions in every neighborhood. Population changes, policing levels, gang activity, local drug markets, economic disruption, housing instability and the effectiveness of community programs can all influence a city’s results.
Even with those exceptions, researchers described the overall decline as larger and more widespread than expected.
“This is one of the most significant public safety developments in decades. It means lives are being saved, families are spared trauma and communities are regaining stability,” Gelb said.
The full-year outcome will depend on whether the improvement holds during the remaining months of 2026. Crime can fluctuate seasonally, and preliminary city data may later be revised.
The first-half figures nevertheless show a sustained reduction in lethal violence across much of the country, with homicide, burglary and several other serious offenses continuing to retreat from the elevated levels recorded during and immediately after the pandemic.
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