UConn and UCLA Headline Women’s NCAA Tournament Race as Debate Builds Over Top Overall Seed

BY EMMANUEL OGBONNA

As the women’s NCAA Tournament selection show approaches, there is little debate about which two programs will sit atop the bracket. UConn and UCLA have separated themselves from the rest of the field throughout the season and are widely expected to claim the tournament’s two highest seeds when the bracket is unveiled Sunday night.

The real question entering selection week is not whether the Huskies and Bruins will be placed at the top, but which program will earn the coveted position as the overall No. 1 seed.

For weeks, the selection committee’s preliminary rankings suggested that UConn held that distinction. During both of the committee’s public “top 16” reveals over the past month, the Huskies were placed first overall, with UCLA closely behind in the second spot. Since the most recent reveal on March 1, both teams have continued to dominate, reinforcing their status as the two most powerful teams in the country.

Each program capped off its regular season by capturing its respective conference tournament title in convincing fashion, leaving the committee with two remarkably strong résumés to compare.

Still, UCLA has made a compelling late argument that it deserves to be considered for the top overall position. The Bruins delivered one of the most striking performances of the postseason on Sunday when they dismantled Iowa by 51 points in the Big Ten championship game. The lopsided victory showcased UCLA’s depth, defensive intensity and offensive firepower, sending a strong message just days before the tournament field is finalized.

The dominant win also had an immediate impact on the national rankings. In the latest Associated Press Top 25 poll released Monday, UCLA received three first-place votes, ending UConn’s eight-week streak as the unanimous No. 1 team in the country.

Even with the debate gaining momentum, UConn head coach Geno Auriemma has made it clear that he is not overly concerned with the outcome of the selection committee’s decision.

Auriemma acknowledged that UCLA has built a strong case for the top spot and said he would have no issue if the Bruins ultimately received the honor.

“I wouldn’t be surprised and I’d be fine with it,” Auriemma said. “It really doesn’t matter that much to me. It’s been a while since we’ve been the top overall seed anyway. If the committee said UCLA was No. 1 overall, I’d just say they’re really, really good. After what they did in their last game, it’s hard to argue with that.”

While UCLA’s late surge has strengthened its argument, history suggests the edge may still belong to UConn. Over the past quarter century, 12 teams have entered the NCAA Tournament with undefeated records. Ten of those teams were awarded the overall No. 1 seed.

Only two exceptions have occurred in that span.

Princeton finished the 2015 regular season unbeaten but did not receive the top overall seed, largely because the Tigers’ schedule and overall résumé did not match those of the nation’s elite programs. The other exception came a year earlier in 2014, when Notre Dame entered the tournament undefeated but still finished behind UConn in the final seeding. That season ultimately ended with the two teams meeting in the national championship game, where the Huskies captured the title.

Regardless of which team claims the top overall position this year, the practical impact on the bracket will likely be limited.

Geography plays a major role in determining tournament placement, and the two teams are already expected to be assigned to different regional sites. UCLA is projected to compete in the Sacramento Regional, while UConn would be placed in the Fort Worth Regional. That arrangement would remain unchanged even if the Bruins were elevated to the overall No. 1 spot.

However, the distinction could still carry one strategic advantage.

The team that earns the top overall seed is scheduled to play its regional final on Sunday rather than Monday. That timing provides an additional day of rest before the Final Four begins on April 3. While the No. 2 overall seed could also potentially play on Sunday depending on scheduling, the top seed is guaranteed that benefit.

UConn is familiar with navigating the tournament without that advantage. Last season the Huskies captured the national championship despite entering the bracket as a No. 2 seed. Their path followed the Saturday-Monday schedule, yet they still powered their way to the title.

One of the most memorable moments from that run came in the national semifinals, when UConn faced UCLA. The Huskies delivered a commanding 34-point victory in the Final Four, marking the largest margin of victory in the history of the national semifinal round. Ironically, UCLA had entered that tournament as the overall No. 1 seed.

When determining tournament seeding, the selection committee evaluates teams using a comprehensive set of criteria. Twelve different factors are considered, including the NCAA’s NET ranking system, which evaluates overall performance, strength of schedule and game results.

In that metric, UConn holds a slight advantage. The Huskies currently sit at No. 1 in the NET rankings, while UCLA holds the second spot.

UConn’s résumé also features the toughest nonconference schedule in the country, giving the team multiple opportunities to prove itself against elite opponents early in the season. However, critics note that the Big East Conference has experienced a relatively down year compared with other major leagues.

Even so, UConn’s dominance has been overwhelming. The Huskies have overwhelmed opponents all season, winning games by an average margin of more than 38 points. That figure ranks among the largest average victory margins in the history of NCAA women’s basketball.

UCLA, meanwhile, has built its case through one of the strongest conferences in the nation. The Bruins navigated the Big Ten schedule without suffering a conference loss and compiled an exceptional record against top-tier competition.

In games classified as “Quadrant 1” matchups — contests against elite opponents — UCLA posted an impressive 18–1 record. The team’s only defeat came early in the season, when it fell to Texas on a neutral court in November.

Despite the ongoing comparisons between conferences and schedules, Auriemma believes such debates can sometimes overlook the reality of competition in college basketball.

“There’s a tendency for people to focus too much on the conference you’re in, your record, and who you played,” Auriemma said. “But there are some teams out there from leagues people don’t talk about much, and I promise you — you don’t want them walking into your gym in the second round.”

As the tournament bracket prepares to take shape, both UConn and UCLA appear destined to lead the field. Whether the Huskies maintain their position at the top or the Bruins leap ahead after their dominant conference tournament performance, the two programs have clearly established themselves as the teams everyone else must chase.

The final answer will come when the selection committee reveals the full bracket Sunday, setting the stage for what promises to be another dramatic March in women’s college basketball.