Crime Prevention Research Center analysis examines 2018–2024 data and disputes prior fact-checking conclusions.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
A report released by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) asserts that transgender individuals account for a disproportionately high share of mass public and active shooting attacks when adjusted for population size.
The CPRC studied data from 2018 through 2024 and concluded that, in 2024, transgender individuals committed active shooting attacks at “at least 12 times their share of the population,” with some estimates placing the figure higher.
Transgender Shooters Commit Disproportionate Shares of Mass Public and Active Shooting Attacks—in 2024, At … by yourNEWS Media
The report states that other analyses failed to reach similar conclusions because they did not account for transgender individuals’ proportion of the overall population. It cites a February 2024 Politifact article titled “No evidence of rising LGBTQ+ violent extremism or ‘trans terrorism” and a September 2025 follow-up titled “Are trans people ‘statistically’ more prone to commit gun violence? Data shows a different picture.” According to the CPRC, those reports examined total attack shares but did not adjust findings based on estimated population percentages.
The CPRC also referenced a Snopes article titled “Mass shooters are not disproportionately transgender, contrary to claims,” arguing that the fact-checking site relied on broader definitions of mass shootings than those used by the FBI.
The center distinguishes between “mass public shootings” and “active shooting attacks,” using the FBI’s criteria. The FBI defines active shootings as incidents occurring in public settings that are not related to other crimes such as gang disputes or robberies. Traditional definitions of “mass” killings, the CPRC notes, involve four or more fatalities, referencing an FBI active shooter report and federal classification standards outlined in a Congressional Research Service document.
To conduct its analysis, the CPRC said it reviewed official FBI data and separately compiled additional cases using the bureau’s definition of active shootings. The organization referenced prior analyses relying solely on FBI data on active shooting cases and an expanded dataset incorporating additional cases.
Across the full 2018–2024 period, transgender individuals accounted for 2.5 percent of active shooting incidents recorded in FBI data, according to the CPRC. The group reports that when population estimates are applied—ranging from 0.5 percent to 1 percent based on surveys from the CDC, Gallup, and Census data referenced in a prior CPRC analysis—transgender individuals committed active shootings at between 2.5 and 3.4 times their share of the population during that timeframe.
The CPRC cited prior demographic estimates from the CDC’s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and Youth Risk Behavior Survey, Gallup polling, and Census data, summarized in a previous analysis available here.
The report further states that in 2024 alone, transgender individuals accounted for approximately 12 percent of active shooting attacks in FBI data, which it calculates as more than 16 times their population share under certain estimates.
The CPRC also referenced specific past incidents, including the Nashville Catholic School shooter and the Club Q case, discussed in an earlier CPRC post examining claims about extremist violence and pronoun identification here.
The CPRC maintains that adjusting for population size is essential when evaluating proportional representation in crime statistics. The report emphasizes that its primary charts are based on FBI data and that the organization plans to release a full Excel file of its dataset.
The findings contribute to an ongoing national debate over definitions, data interpretation, and statistical methodology in analyzing violent crime trends.
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