By Emmanuel Bobby
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Two Iranian-backed militias in the Middle East are signaling their willingness to launch new attacks, moves widely seen as efforts to bolster Iran as tensions spike following the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier in the region. The developments come after President Donald Trump ordered American carriers to the Middle East while warning of possible military action against Tehran over its violent crackdown on nationwide protests.
On Monday, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels suggested they could resume attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, reigniting fears of renewed disruptions to a vital global trade route. Their comments followed a blunt warning issued late Sunday by Kataib Hezbollah, a powerful Iraqi paramilitary group backed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. The group cautioned that any strike against Iran would trigger a “total war” across the region.
The threats emerged as the Middle East remains locked in a tense waiting game, with regional actors watching closely to see whether Trump will order military action. Both the Houthis and Kataib Hezbollah stayed out of Israel’s 12-day war with Iran in June, a conflict that saw U.S. forces bomb Iranian nuclear sites. Their earlier restraint highlighted the internal strain facing Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance,” a network of allied militant groups weakened by sustained Israeli operations against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
U.S. Carrier Strike Group Reaches the Region
The warnings coincided with the arrival of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its accompanying guided-missile destroyers. U.S. Central Command said the strike group’s presence is intended to “promote regional security and stability.”
Trump has said the deployment is precautionary, describing it as a move made “just in case” he decides to take action against Iran. He has publicly outlined two red lines that could trigger U.S. military intervention: the killing of peaceful protesters and mass executions tied to Iran’s sweeping crackdown following weeks of unrest.
A senior Iranian military official, speaking anonymously on state television, dismissed the American show of force as exaggerated. The official said Iran had already increased its military readiness and described the USS Abraham Lincoln not as a deterrent but as a potential target.
Mixed Signals From Iran’s Allies
Iran has long projected influence through its “Axis of Resistance,” a network of allied groups operating in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. The alliance was designed to deter attacks on Iran by keeping conflict beyond its borders. But that strategy has been badly shaken following Israel’s military campaign against Hamas, strikes on Hezbollah, and the collapse of Syria’s Bashar Assad government after years of war in which Iran played a central role.
Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful regional ally, has been notably cautious. In a video address to supporters in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Kassem acknowledged widespread speculation about how the group might respond if the U.S. or Israel attacked Iran.
“We are preparing for possible aggression and are determined to defend,” Kassem said. However, he declined to commit to specific actions, adding that any response would depend on circumstances and strategic interests at the time.
By contrast, militias in Iraq and Yemen issued far more explicit threats. The Houthis released a short video showing a ship engulfed in flames, captioned simply: “Soon.” The group later aired footage from its January 2024 attack on the tanker Marlin Luanda in the Gulf of Aden — one of more than 100 vessels targeted during a campaign the Houthis said was meant to pressure Israel over the Gaza war. Although the Houthis paused their attacks following a ceasefire in Gaza, they have repeatedly warned that operations could resume.
Kataib Hezbollah leader Ahmad “Abu Hussein” al-Hamidawi delivered an even starker message.
“We affirm to the enemies that the war on the Islamic Republic will not be a picnic,” he said. “You will taste the bitterest forms of death, and nothing will remain of you in our region.”
The United Arab Emirates, seeking to distance itself from the escalating rhetoric, announced Monday that it would not allow its airspace, territory or territorial waters to be used for military action against Iran. Emirati officials said the country would continue to push for dialogue and diplomatic solutions.
Iran Issues Fresh Warnings to U.S. and Israel
Iranian officials, meanwhile, reinforced their own threats. Defense Ministry spokesperson Gen. Reza Talaei-Nik warned that any attack by Israel or the United States would be met with a response “more painful and more decisive than in the past,” according to state television. He said ongoing threats required Iran to maintain “full and comprehensive preparedness.”
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei echoed that message, telling reporters that instability would not be confined to Iran alone.
“Regional countries fully know that any security breach in the region will not affect Iran only,” Baghaei said. “The lack of security is contagious.”
Over the weekend, Iran unveiled a banner in Tehran’s Enghelab Square depicting a bloodied aircraft carrier strewn with bodies, alongside the warning: “If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind.” The display underscored Tehran’s defiant tone, even as the country continues to recover from June’s brief but devastating war, which left its air defense systems badly damaged, senior commanders killed and nuclear facilities bombed.
As tensions rise, Iran has taken steps to tighten control of its skies. Authorities issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying nationwide, with exceptions for oil industry operations and emergency medical flights. Many Western airlines have already begun avoiding Iranian airspace altogether, citing security concerns, though some Gulf carriers still use the route for flights to Russia.
Protest Crackdown Death Toll Climbs
The standoff unfolds against the backdrop of Iran’s most severe internal unrest in decades. Protests erupted Dec. 28 after the national currency, the rial, plunged in value and quickly spread nationwide. Authorities responded with a sweeping crackdown, the full scale of which is only now emerging following a more than two-week internet blackout — the most extensive in Iran’s history.
The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported Monday that at least 5,973 people have been killed, with the toll expected to rise. The group says more than 41,800 people have been arrested. Its figures, based on a network of activists inside Iran, have proven reliable in past periods of unrest, though independent verification remains difficult.
Iran’s government has released far lower figures, claiming 3,117 deaths, including civilians and security forces, and labeling the remaining fatalities as “terrorists.” Critics note that Iranian authorities have historically underreported casualties during periods of unrest.
As the death toll climbs and military threats intensify, the region faces a volatile mix of internal upheaval and external confrontation — one that could rapidly spiral if diplomacy fails.
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