Guyana’s Economy Poised for Strong Growth in 2026 as Oil Sector Remains Key Driver

BY COMFORT OGBONNA

Guyana’s economy is projected to expand by 16.2% in 2026, easing slightly from an estimated 19.3% growth rate in 2025, as the country’s booming oil and gas sector continues to underpin overall economic performance, Finance Minister Ashni Singh said on Monday while presenting the national budget.

Singh said the oil sector is expected to grow by 17.9% this year, marking a slowdown from 21% growth in 2025 and the sharp 57.7% expansion recorded in 2024. Despite the moderation, oil production is forecast to average around 840,000 barrels per day, reinforcing Guyana’s position as one of the fastest-growing oil producers globally.

The government expects to export 309 crude oil cargoes this year, up from 260 cargoes in the previous year. Based on current projections, oil revenues are estimated at approximately $2.79 billion. Each cargo typically carries close to one million barrels of crude, making oil exports a central source of foreign exchange and fiscal support for the country.

Looking ahead to 2026, the oil sector is expected to remain the backbone of economic growth, supported by rising production capacity and the start-up of a fifth offshore oil project later in the year. The steady rollout of new developments is set to further boost output and exports, even as growth rates gradually normalize from the exceptionally high levels seen in recent years.

ExxonMobil, which leads the consortium controlling all of Guyana’s oil production, increased the country’s production capacity to more than 900,000 barrels per day last year. A new project scheduled for development this year is expected to lift capacity further, potentially reaching as much as 1.15 million barrels per day, adding to Guyana’s growing influence in regional and global energy markets.

The government is widely expected to maintain an infrastructure-focused budget strategy, using oil revenues to finance large-scale development goals. These include plans to construct 40,000 homes over a five-year period and to significantly expand and modernize the country’s road network, initiatives aimed at supporting long-term growth and improving living standards.

In 2025, Guyana recorded double-digit economic growth for the sixth consecutive year, even as the pace of growth in oil production and exports slowed compared with earlier periods. The non-oil economy also posted strong performance, expanding by 14.3%, driven largely by agriculture, mining, construction, and services, Singh said. This broad-based growth has helped cushion the economy against fluctuations in the energy sector.

“Our overall real economic growth continues to be supported by strong expansion in oil and gas activity, alongside sustained growth across the non-oil sectors of the economy,” Singh said, underscoring the government’s efforts to diversify economic activity while leveraging oil revenues.

Crude oil production throughout 2025 reached a total of 261.1 million barrels, up from 225.4 million barrels in 2024, following the start-up of a fourth oil project in August. The steady increase in output reflects the rapid development of offshore resources under the ExxonMobil-led consortium.

Guyana, Latin America’s newest oil producer, has rapidly emerged as a major exporter in the region and is now the fifth-largest crude exporter in Latin America, behind Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, and Colombia. The country’s continued expansion in oil production and investment is expected to keep it among the world’s fastest-growing economies in the years ahead.