By Emmanuel Bobby
While control of Congress will dominate national attention during the 2026 midterm elections, a slate of high-stakes gubernatorial races across the country is also set to shape the political landscape.
Democrats have seen encouraging signs at the federal level—particularly in the House and increasingly in the Senate—as President Donald Trump’s approval rating hovers in the low 40s. Still, gubernatorial races often follow different dynamics than national contests, with state-specific issues, candidate quality, and local political environments playing a decisive role.
Competitive primaries are unfolding in both parties, and in battleground states such as Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin, general election matchups are expected to attract heavy spending and national attention.
Below are the major gubernatorial races to watch.
Georgia
Gov. Brian Kemp is term-limited, leaving Georgia’s governorship wide open in a state that has emerged as a pivotal swing battleground.
The Republican primary field includes Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, Attorney General Chris Carr, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Raffensperger remains a controversial figure within the GOP due to his role in disputes with Trump following the 2020 election.
On the Democratic side, candidates include former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, former state Sen. Jason Esteves, state Reps. Derrick Jackson and Ruwa Romman, and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Duncan, once a Republican, switched parties, citing changes within the GOP under Trump.
Trump carried Georgia by less than two percentage points.
Michigan
Michigan, another key swing state, will see a competitive race to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Trump narrowly won the state in 2024 after losing it in 2020.
Republicans running include Rep. John James, former Attorney General Mike Cox, state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, and former House Speaker Tom Leonard. James currently leads the field by a wide margin.
Democratic contenders include Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, with Benson holding a substantial polling advantage.
Given Michigan’s importance in national elections, both parties are expected to invest heavily.
Wisconsin
Gov. Tony Evers is term-limited in Wisconsin, another closely divided battleground state that Trump narrowly won in 2024.
Democrats have only one declared candidate so far: Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski. On the Republican side, announced candidates include Rep. Tom Tiffany, Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann, and medical service technician Andy Manske.
Trump won Wisconsin by less than one percentage point, while Evers carried it comfortably in 2022.
Arizona
Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is seeking reelection in Arizona, a perennial battleground.
Republicans competing for the nomination include Karrin Taylor Robson, a 2022 gubernatorial candidate, and Rep. Andy Biggs. Trump has endorsed both candidates.
Polling shows Biggs leading the GOP primary, while Hobbs narrowly defeats both potential opponents in general election matchups. Her approval rating stands at 44 percent, with 40 percent disapproval.
Trump won Arizona by just under six percentage points in 2024.
Nevada
Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is running for reelection in Nevada and has Trump’s endorsement. Lombardo narrowly defeated Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak in 2022, marking a return to Republican control after several years.
Democratic candidates include Attorney General Aaron Ford and Washoe County Commission Chair Alexis Hill.
Trump won Nevada by just over three percentage points in 2024, ending a two-decade Democratic streak in presidential races.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire continues its tradition of political divergence between state and federal races. While Democrats often win at the federal level, Republicans frequently perform better in state contests.
Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, elected in 2024, will seek reelection in the state’s biennial gubernatorial cycle. Despite Kamala Harris carrying the state in the presidential race, Republicans made sweeping gains at the state level.
Former town councilor Jon Kiper is currently the only declared Democratic candidate. Polling shows Ayotte narrowly split on approval, with 47 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.
California
With Gov. Gavin Newsom term-limited, the race to lead California is heating up in the heavily Democratic state.
Democratic candidates include Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, billionaire Tom Steyer, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Vice President Kamala Harris declined to run.
Republican candidates include former television host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
Florida
Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited, opening the race in a state that has shifted sharply toward Republicans in recent years. Trump won Florida by a double-digit margin in 2024.
Rep. Byron Donalds is running with Trump’s endorsement and leads the GOP field, which also includes Surfside Mayor Charles Burkett, businessman James Fishback, and House Speaker Paul Renner.
Democratic candidates include former Rep. David Jolly and Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings. Democrats would need a dramatic swing—more than 20 points—to be competitive statewide.
New York
Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul is seeking reelection after narrowly winning a full term in 2022.
Republicans are expected to contest the race, with Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman emerging as the frontrunner. Rep. Elise Stefanik briefly entered the race but withdrew, citing family priorities. Trump has since endorsed Blakeman.
Despite Hochul’s narrow prior win, Democrats remain favored in the state.
Ohio
Although Trump carried Ohio by double digits in 2024, the gubernatorial race is shaping up to be competitive.
Entrepreneur and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is the clear GOP favorite, with endorsements from Trump, Ohio’s U.S. senators, and the state’s House Republicans. Gov. Mike DeWine has not issued an endorsement.
Democrats are led by former Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton. Polling averages show Ramaswamy leading by just one percentage point, signaling a potentially close contest.
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